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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】AI股潰敗考驗市場信念後，經濟實力支撐美股反彈
美國民間就業數據意外強勁，抵銷科技股猛烈賣壓；然外資大舉賣超，預示台股市場情緒已重大轉變。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年11月5日 美東時間
摘要
- 在經歷科技股引領的急遽拋售後，美股顯著反彈；而台股加權指數(TAIEX)則在外資大舉賣超的壓力下大幅下跌。
- 強勁的美國民間就業數據引發市場反彈，抵銷了高估值AI股的潰敗，預示市場焦點正從純粹的成長論述轉向經濟基本面。
- 初步的避險潮確認了投資者的焦慮情緒，資金在股市修正期間輪動至防禦性資產，黃金上漲。
- ADP民間就業報告顯示就業人數意外增加42,000人，在政府關門造成的數據真空中，成為市場最主要的正向催化劑。
- 長期持續的美國政府關門持續掩蓋經濟前景並延遲官方數據發布，加劇了市場對民間部門報告的依賴。
市場現正陷入一場劇烈拉鋸，一方是科技股估值泡沫的恐慌，另一方則是潛在經濟韌性的新跡象。盤勢初以上一交易日的潰敗延續開場，輝達(Nvidia)與超微半導體(AMD)等高漲的AI股遭猛烈拋售。此賣壓由泡沫恐慌、頂尖華爾街銀行家的警告，以及關鍵企業令人失望的財測等強烈因素組合所驅動，使市場對過高估值的焦慮具體化。然而，此論述在盤中被ADP民間就業報告的發布完全逆轉。就業人數意外躍升42,000人，為數週來提供了首個美國經濟可能比預期強勁的確切證據，給予投資者逢低買入的基本面理由，並使標普500指數和那斯達克指數得以抹去早盤的大幅虧損，終場收高。
當美國市場找到反彈理由之際，台股加權指數(TAIEX)則承受了此波避險浪潮完整且未受緩解的衝擊。指數於週三暴跌近400點，主要由外資高達新台幣575億元的淨賣超所驅動。這是一次重大的資本外流，打破了市場的上漲動能。技術面現已顯著惡化，指數收在5日移動平均線之下，且關鍵動能指標轉為負向。此現象確認了市場情緒的明確轉變，據報官股行庫已進場護盤，以應對沉重的賣壓。
關鍵的啟示是，市場的性格已經改變。由動能驅動的輕易獲利時期已結束，取而代之的是一個波動加劇的環境。美國市場的反彈雖令人鼓舞，但初期科技股拋售的嚴重性，暴露了一個尚未消失的深層脆弱性。在美國政府關門造成的資訊真空中，每個民間數據點如今都帶有不成比例的權重，使盤中急遽反轉成為新常態。對台股加權指數(TAIEX)而言，當前的挑戰是吸收外資出走的衝擊，並建立新的支撐水平。市場焦點已從追逐新高，轉向有紀律的風險管理。
週三資產焦點：美國經濟與債券趨勢
本摘要總結了美國關鍵經濟指標和美國公債ETF為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：美國宏觀經濟
- 投資存續期間: 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 企業獲利: 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
- 通貨膨脹: 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
- 貨幣流量(流入美元): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 消費者信心: 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
部分經濟指標觀察到向中性收斂的現象。企業獲利的趨勢從溫和正向轉弱為中性，而通貨膨脹的指標則從溫和負向改善至中性。這些轉變發生之際，消費者信心維持其強勁正向的趨勢，而貨幣流量(流入美元)則守住其溫和負向的評估。此資訊顯示，企業獲利和通膨的趨勢有所緩和，而消費者前景則依然穩固。
圖表二：美國公債(美元計價)
- 1-3年期美國公債(代表性ETF: SHY): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
- 3-7年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEI): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
- 7-10年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEF): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
- 10-20年期美國公債(代表性ETF: TLH): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▲
- 20年期以上美國公債(代表性ETF: TLT): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▲
美國公債市場出現顯著轉變，尤以長天期公債的趨勢反轉為標誌。10-20年期和20年期以上公債的指標，雙雙從溫和正向轉為溫和負向。殖利率曲線前端也普遍走弱，1-3年期、3-7年期和7-10年期公債的趨勢，皆從溫和正向緩和至中性。此數據指向市場對整體公債殖利率曲線的評估，已出現顯著的負向轉變。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Markets Rebound on Economic Strength After AI-Led Rout Tests Investor Conviction
A surprise jump in U.S. private payrolls counters a fierce tech sell-off, but massive foreign outflows signal a significant sentiment shift for the TAIEX.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-11-05
Executive Summary
- U.S. markets staged a notable rebound after a steep tech-led sell-off, while the TAIEX suffered a significant decline under the weight of massive foreign selling.
- A rout in high-valuation AI stocks was countered by a rally on strong U.S. private jobs data, signaling a shift in focus from pure growth narratives to economic fundamentals.
- Gold rose as the initial flight to safety confirmed investor anxiety, with funds rotating into defensive assets during the equity market correction.
- The ADP private payrolls report, showing a surprise 42,000 job gain, became the market's primary positive catalyst amid a government shutdown-induced data blackout.
- The prolonged U.S. government shutdown continues to obscure the economic outlook and delay official data, amplifying market reliance on private-sector reports.
The market is now locked in a volatile battle between fears of a tech valuation bubble and emerging signs of underlying economic resilience. The session began with a continuation of the previous day's rout, as high-flying AI stocks like Nvidia and AMD were aggressively sold off. This was driven by a potent combination of bubble fears, warnings from top Wall Street bankers, and disappointing guidance from key players, crystallizing the market's anxiety about stretched valuations. However, the narrative was completely upended mid-day by the release of the ADP private payrolls report. A surprise jump of 42,000 jobs provided the first hard evidence in weeks that the U.S. economy may be stronger than expected, giving investors a fundamental reason to buy the dip and allowing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to erase their steep losses and close higher.
While the U.S. market found a reason to rally, the TAIEX felt the full, unmitigated force of the risk-off wave. The index plunged almost 400 points on Wednesday, driven by a massive NT$57.5 billion net sell-off from foreign investors. It was a significant capital outflow that broke the market's upward momentum. The technical picture has now soured considerably, with the index closing below its 5-day moving average and key momentum indicators turning negative. This confirms a distinct shift in sentiment, with government-affiliated funds reportedly stepping in to provide support against the intense selling pressure.
The key takeaway is that the market's character has changed. The period of easy, momentum-driven gains is over, and an environment of heightened volatility has taken its place. The U.S. rebound was encouraging, but the severity of the initial tech sell-off exposed a deep-seated vulnerability that has not disappeared. With the U.S. government shutdown creating an information vacuum, every private data point now carries disproportionate weight, making sharp intraday reversals the new norm. For the TAIEX, the immediate challenge is to absorb the shock of the foreign exodus and establish a new support level. The focus has shifted from chasing new highs to disciplined risk management.
Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economic & Bond Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key U.S. economic indicators and U.S. Treasury bond ETFs. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators
- Investment Duration: Current: --, Last Week: --
- Corporate Earnings: Current: --, Last Week: ▲
- Inflation: Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Consumer Strength: Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A convergence toward neutral was observed in some economic indicators. The trend for Corporate Earnings weakened from mildly positive to neutral, while the indicator for Inflation improved from mildly negative to neutral. These shifts occurred as Consumer Strength maintained its strongly positive trend and Currency Flow (into USD) held its mildly negative assessment. This information suggests a moderation in the trends for corporate earnings and inflation, while the consumer outlook remained firm.
Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)
- 1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
- 3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
- 7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
- 10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲
- 20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲
A significant shift occurred across the U.S. Treasury market, highlighted by a trend reversal in long-duration bonds. The indicators for both 10-20 Year and 20+ Year Treasuries moved from mildly positive to mildly negative. A broad weakening was also seen across the front end of the curve, with the trends for 1-3 Year, 3-7 Year, and 7-10 Year Treasuries all easing from mildly positive to neutral. This data points to a notable negative shift in the assessment for the entire Treasury curve.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。