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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】勞動市場震撼彈引發科技股猛烈拋售，粉碎市場信心
驚人的裁員數據助燃美股大盤跌勢，避險情緒飆升，終結台股十週連漲紀錄。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年11月6日 美東時間
摘要
- 全球股市急遽下挫，驚人的美國勞動市場數據完全蓋過先前對企業財報的關注，引發廣泛的避險潮。
- 科技與AI股領跌美國市場，此跌勢直接轉化為台股的顯著下挫，中斷其十週的漲勢。
- 投資者逃向政府公債避險，推升公債價格，導致殖利率下滑；市場對聯準會12月降息的押注急遽升高。
- 一份顯示美國十月份裁員人數飆升至數十年高點的民間報告，成為市場反轉最主要且強力的催化劑。
- 持續的美國政府關門因延遲官方數據而加劇不確定性，使市場對民間部門的報告高度敏感。
市場的主要論述已然突變，從對企業財報的選擇性關注，轉向對宏觀經濟惡化的普遍恐懼。此一劇烈風險重新定價的催化劑，來自一份顯示美國十月份裁員人數飆升至數十年高點的民間部門報告。在美國政府長期關門所造成的資訊真空中，此單一數據點粉碎了投資者的信心，並證實了對經濟降溫的擔憂。市場反應既即時又猛烈：美國主要指數創下數月來最大單日跌幅之一，市場波動率急遽跳升，資本從股市逃向安全的政府公債。
此波賣壓的重災區，正是市場上無可爭議的領頭羊：科技產業。輝達(Nvidia)、超微半導體(AMD)和Palantir等高估值AI股，這些近期漲勢的主要推手，受創最重。這不僅僅是獲利了結；而是面對潛在疲弱的消費者與商業環境，對增長前景的根本性重新評估。此避險情緒直接外溢至台灣市場，台股加權指數(TAIEX)急遽下跌，明確地終結了其十週的連漲紀錄。跌勢由對全球前景最敏感的相同權值科技股——台積電(TSMC)、鴻海(Hon Hai)及聯發科(MediaTek)——所引領。
跨資產類別的反應，為此一強力轉向防禦性態勢的轉變，提供了清晰的佐證。在投資者尋求避風港之際，黃金上漲，美元走強；與此同時，隨著市場積極消化聯準會12月降息機率的提高，公債殖利率下滑。有趣的是，即使在輝達執行長黃仁勳參訪台灣台積電先進廠房之際，此波拋售依然發生——這原是AI供應鏈長期健全的強烈訊號。此一並列對比，突顯了當前的市場動態：近期的宏觀經濟擔憂，現已完全壓過正面的、針對特定公司的基本面。市場環境已明確轉向風險管理。
週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢
本摘要總結了關鍵貨幣對(以新台幣計價)及主要大宗商品類股(以美元計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：貨幣(新台幣計價)
- 美元(貨幣對: USDTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
- 歐元(貨幣對: EURTWD): 當前: ▼, 一週前: --
- 日圓(貨幣對: JPYTWD): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 人民幣(貨幣對: CNYTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
- 加幣(貨幣對: CADTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
美元和人民幣兌新台幣的趨勢雙雙走強，從溫和正向轉為強勁正向。相較之下，歐元的趨勢則轉弱，從中性轉為溫和負向。其他主要貨幣對則呈現穩定，日圓維持其溫和負向指標，加幣則守住其溫和正向趨勢。此資訊突顯了市場對美元集團貨幣的評估轉強，以及對歐元的顯著轉弱。
圖表二：大宗商品(美元計價)
- 能源類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▼
- 農業類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBA): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 工業金屬(代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 貴金屬(代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 數位資產(代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼
能源類大宗商品產業出現顯著的趨勢反轉，其指標從溫和負向轉為溫和正向。相較之下，數位資產的趨勢則進一步轉弱，從溫和負向轉為強勁負向。其他產業則維持穩定，工業金屬守住強勁正向趨勢，貴金屬維持溫和正向趨勢，而農業類大宗商品則保持強勁負向。此數據指向能源前景出現顯著改善。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Labor Market Shock Triggers Fierce Tech Sell-Off, Shattering Market Confidence
Alarming layoff data fuels a broad U.S. market decline, ending the TAIEX's 10-week winning streak as risk aversion surges.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-11-06
Executive Summary
- Global equity markets sold off sharply as alarming U.S. labor market data completely eclipsed the prior focus on corporate earnings, triggering a widespread flight to safety.
- Technology and AI stocks led steep declines in the U.S., a move that directly translated into a significant downturn for the TAIEX, breaking its 10-week run of gains.
- Treasury yields dropped as investors fled to the safety of government bonds, sharply increasing bets on a December Federal Reserve rate cut.
- A private report showing U.S. layoffs in October surging to a multi-decade high served as the primary and powerful catalyst for the market's reversal.
- The ongoing U.S. government shutdown continues to amplify uncertainty by delaying official data, making markets hyper-sensitive to private-sector reports.
The market's primary narrative has been abruptly rewritten, shifting from a selective focus on corporate earnings to a broad-based fear of macroeconomic deterioration. The catalyst for this violent repricing of risk was a private-sector report showing U.S. layoffs in October surged to a multi-decade high. In the information vacuum created by the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, this single data point shattered investor confidence and confirmed fears of a cooling economy. The reaction was immediate and severe: major U.S. indices suffered one of their largest declines in months, market volatility jumped sharply, and capital fled from equities into the safety of government bonds.
The sector that bore the brunt of this sell-off was the market's undisputed leader: technology. High-valuation AI stocks like Nvidia, AMD, and Palantir, which had been the primary drivers of the recent rally, were hit the hardest. This was not merely profit-taking; it was a fundamental reassessment of growth prospects in the face of a potentially weakening consumer and business environment. This risk-off sentiment spilled over directly into the Taiwan market, where the TAIEX fell sharply, decisively ending its 10-week winning streak. The decline was led by the same heavyweight tech stocks—TSMC, Hon Hai, and MediaTek—that are most sensitive to the global outlook.
The cross-asset reaction provides clear confirmation of this powerful shift to a defensive posture. Gold rallied and the U.S. dollar firmed as investors sought safe havens, while Treasury yields fell as the market aggressively priced in a higher probability of a Fed rate cut in December. Interestingly, the sell-off occurred even as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang visited a TSMC advanced facility in Taiwan, a strong signal of the long-term health of the AI supply chain. This juxtaposition highlights the current market dynamic: near-term macroeconomic fears are now completely overwhelming positive, company-specific fundamentals. The environment has shifted decisively toward risk management.
Thursday Asset Focus: Currency & Commodity Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key currency pairs against the TWD and for major commodity sectors in USD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)
- U.S. Dollar (FX Pair: USDTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- Euro (FX Pair: EURTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
- Japanese Yen (FX Pair: JPYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Chinese Yuan (FX Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- Canadian Dollar (FX Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
The U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan trends both strengthened against the TWD, moving from mildly to strongly positive. In contrast, the trend for the Euro weakened, shifting from neutral to mildly negative. Other major pairs showed stability, with the Japanese Yen maintaining its mildly negative indicator and the Canadian Dollar holding its mildly positive trend. This information highlights a strengthening assessment for the dollar bloc currencies and a notable weakening for the Euro.
Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)
- Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼
- Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼
A significant trend reversal occurred in the Energy Commodities sector, with its indicator moving from mildly negative to mildly positive. In contrast, the trend for Digital Assets weakened further, shifting from mildly to strongly negative. Other sectors remained stable, with Industrial Metals holding a strongly positive trend, Precious Metals maintaining a mildly positive trend, and Agricultural Commodities remaining strongly negative. The data points to a notable improvement in the outlook for energy.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。