•
【Joe’s華爾街脈動】政府關門僵局現曙光，點燃漲勢、逆轉科技股賣壓
華盛頓協議進展，釋放科技股買盤；台積電營收創紀錄，為台股提供強勁本地催化劑。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年11月10日 美東時間
摘要
- 創紀錄的美國政府長期關門有望結束，引發強勁的風險偏好情緒，全球股市應聲飆漲。
- 科技股與AI股引領美股急遽反彈，此一走勢直接助燃了台股加權指數(TAIEX)的強勁漲勢。
- 投資者果決地從避險的公債輪動回股市，公債殖利率上揚。
- 美國參議院就政府撥款協議取得突破，成為市場最主要且壓倒性的催化劑。
- 黃金同步飆漲，突顯了儘管投資者慶祝政治逆風的掃除，但對潛在經濟健全狀況的擔憂依然存在。
華盛頓的政治突破釋放了一股強勁的風險偏好漲勢，完全逆轉了上週由恐懼所驅動的拋售，並再次確認了市場對頭條新聞風險的敏感性。創紀錄的美國政府長期關門有望即將結束的前景，成為市場自五月以來最佳單日表現的唯一催化劑。投資者大舉買回上週遭懲罰的科技股與AI股，將此協議解讀為經濟活動及關鍵的數據能見度的一大障礙已被掃除。這導致市場波動性大幅下降，並引發相應的政府公債拋售，從而推升了公債殖利率。
此波樂觀情緒為台灣市場提供了強勁的順風，而台灣市場更受到異常強勁的本地論述所提振。台股加權指數(TAIEX)顯著上漲，其驅動力不僅來自美國的正向情緒，更來自本地因素的有力組合。台積電(TSMC)公布了創紀錄的十月份營收，為此波漲勢提供了基本面支撐；與此同時，輝達(Nvidia)執行長黃仁勳的持續參訪，則強化了市場對AI供應鏈領導地位的長期信心。台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)的隔夜飆漲，確認了全球資本正回流至台灣的科技龍頭企業。
儘管股市的走勢無疑是正面的，但市場對未來的路徑正發出更為複雜的訊號。黃金亦急遽上漲，此清晰跡象表明，投資者正在區分短期政治危機的化解，與仍不確定的潛在經濟前景。政府關門造成了資訊真空，而貴金屬的強勢顯示，投資者正維持避險部位，以防範延後公布的經濟數據可能揭示的任何情況。政府關門的迷霧正開始散去，市場的焦點現在將從政治上的寬慰，轉向將決定此波漲勢持久性的基本經濟報告。
週一資產焦點：美國股市與個股趨勢
本摘要總結了美國主要股價指數及領先企業為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：美國股價指數(美元計價)
- 道瓊工業平均指數(代表性ETF: DIA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 標普500指數(代表性ETF: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 那斯達克綜合指數(代表性ETF: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 羅素2000指數(代表性ETF: IWM): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 費城半導體指數(代表性ETF: SOXQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
過去一週，美國主要股價指數的趨勢評估維持穩定，未記錄到任何變化。道瓊、標普500、那斯達克及半導體指數皆維持其強勁正向的評級。代表小型股的羅素2000指數亦守住其溫和正向的指標。此一穩定性顯示，不同市場產業普遍的評估持續不變，突顯了大型股與小型股趨勢之間的持續分歧。
圖表二：美國前五大企業(美元計價)
- 輝達(NVIDIA Corp, NVDA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 蘋果(Apple Inc, AAPL): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 微軟(Microsoft Corp, MSFT): 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc, AMZN): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 博通(Broadcom Inc, AVGO): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
穩定同樣是本週美國領先企業趨勢評估的基調。前五大企業中的四家——輝達(NVIDIA)、蘋果(Apple)、亞馬遜(Amazon)和博通(Broadcom)——皆維持其強勁正向的趨勢指標。微軟(Microsoft)的指標則保持中性。在此市場龍頭群體中，並未記錄到任何升級或降級。此一靜止的狀態，指向這些公司中大多數普遍的正向趨勢仍在持續。
📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。
如果您覺得這份研究有價值：
👍為這篇文章按讚。
➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。
本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Shutdown Breakthrough Ignites Rally, Reversing Tech Sell-Off
Washington's progress toward a deal unleashes a wave of buying in tech stocks, while record TSMC revenue provides a powerful local catalyst for the TAIEX.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-11-10
Executive Summary
- Global equity markets surged as a potential end to the record-long U.S. government shutdown triggered a powerful wave of risk-on sentiment.
- Technology and AI stocks led a sharp rebound in the U.S., a move that directly fueled a strong rally in the TAIEX.
- Treasury yields rose as investors rotated decisively out of safe-haven bonds and back into equities.
- A breakthrough in the U.S. Senate on a deal to fund the government served as the primary and overwhelming market catalyst.
- Gold's simultaneous surge underscores that while investors are celebrating the removal of a political headwind, concerns about underlying economic health persist.
A political breakthrough in Washington has unleashed a powerful risk-on rally, completely reversing last week's fear-driven sell-off and reaffirming the market's sensitivity to headline risk. The prospect of an imminent end to the record-long U.S. government shutdown served as the sole catalyst for the market's best session since May. Investors aggressively bought back into the very technology and AI stocks that were punished last week, interpreting the deal as the removal of a major impediment to economic activity and, critically, data visibility. This led to a sharp drop in market volatility and a corresponding sell-off in government bonds, which pushed Treasury yields higher.
This wave of optimism provided a powerful tailwind for the Taiwan market, which was further bolstered by an exceptionally strong local narrative. The TAIEX rallied significantly, driven not only by the positive sentiment from the U.S. but also by a potent combination of local factors. TSMC reported record-breaking October revenue, providing a fundamental anchor for the rally, while the continued visit of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reinforced long-term confidence in the AI supply chain's leadership. The surge in TSMC's ADR overnight confirms that global capital is flowing back into Taiwan's technology champions.
While the move in equities was unequivocally positive, the market is sending a more complex signal about the road ahead. Gold also rallied sharply, a clear indication that investors are differentiating between the resolution of a near-term political crisis and the still-uncertain outlook for the underlying economy. The shutdown has created an information blackout, and the strength in precious metals suggests that investors are maintaining hedges against whatever the delayed economic data may reveal. The fog of the shutdown is beginning to lift, and the market's focus will now shift from political relief to the fundamental economic reports that will determine the durability of this rally.
Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Equity & Company Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for major U.S. equity indices and leading U.S. companies. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
The trend assessments for major U.S. equity indices remained stable over the past week, with no changes recorded. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Semiconductor indices all maintained their strongly positive ratings. The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, also held its mildly positive indicator. This stability suggests the prevailing assessments for different market segments persisted, highlighting the continued distinction between the trends for large-cap and small-cap stocks.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)
- NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Broadcom Inc (Ticker: AVGO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Stability also characterized the trend assessments for leading U.S. companies this week. Four of the top five firms—NVIDIA, Apple, Amazon, and Broadcom—all maintained their strongly positive trend indicators. The indicator for Microsoft remained neutral. No upgrades or downgrades were recorded among this group of market leaders. This lack of movement points to a continuation of the prevailing positive trends for most of these companies.
📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content.
💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.
if you found this research valuable:
👍'Like' this post.
📰Follow this blog for new market updates.
➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.
This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）
關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》
鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。