【Joe’s華爾街脈動】降息預期消退，美科技股潰敗引發大盤拋售
聯準會預期急轉彎，AI風險殘酷重定價，股市應聲下挫。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年11月13日 美東時間
摘要
- 美國政府關門結束，市場焦點轉向不確定性更高的聯準會政策，引發廣泛的避險操作，美股急遽下挫。
- 高估值科技股領跌，確認投資者正強力從市場的增長龍頭輪動至防禦性部位。
- 市場大幅下修十二月降息的機率，移除了近期股市漲勢的關鍵支柱，公債殖利率上揚。
- 美國政府關門的結束非但未提振市場情緒，反而因將迎來大量延後發布的經濟數據而加劇了不確定性。
- CBOE波動率指數急遽飆升，確認投資者焦慮情緒顯著升高；而比特幣跌破十萬美元，則預示投機性資產出現普遍的投降式拋售。
美國政府關門的結束，並非許多人預期的利多釋放催化劑；相反地，它成為了一場嚴峻風險重新定價的導火線，市場焦點迅速從政治失能，轉回基本面與一個更難預測的聯準會。結果是一場廣泛且慘重的拋售，標普500指數與那斯達克指數皆遭受重創。這並非一次細微的類股輪動，而是一場果決的避險潮，CBOE波動率指數(VIX)的急遽飆升，以及比特幣等投機性資產跌破十萬美元關鍵水平的投降式拋售，都確認了此點。
此波平倉的風暴核心，正是市場上無可爭議的領頭羊：科技產業。正是同一批推動市場創下歷史新高的AI相關大型股——輝達(NVIDIA)、特斯拉(Tesla)、Alphabet——在投資者獲利了結下領跌。此現象預示著市場情緒的關鍵轉變，長期的AI論述正暫時被對過高估值與較不寬鬆貨幣政策的即時擔憂所壓倒。債券市場為此一轉變提供了清晰的佐證，隨著市場隱含的聯準會十二月降息機率已降至50%以下，與前一週相比出現急遽逆轉，公債殖利率微幅走高。
此一強勁的全球避險浪潮，對台灣市場構成了直接且即時的挑戰。儘管本地基本面依然異常強勁——超微半導體(AMD)樂觀的長期財測及其確認將採用台積電(TSMC)的2奈米製程，便突顯了此點——但這些利多正被全球宏觀環境所完全掩蓋。輕易獲利的時期已結束，市場如今必須在一個全球風險偏好惡化的環境中前行。
週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢
本摘要總結了關鍵貨幣對(以新台幣計價)及主要大宗商品類股(以美元計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：貨幣(新台幣計價)
- 美元(貨幣對: USDTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 歐元(貨幣對: EURTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▼
- 日圓(貨幣對: JPYTWD): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 人民幣(貨幣對: CNYTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 加幣(貨幣對: CADTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: --
數種貨幣兌新台幣出現顯著走強。最顯著的轉變是歐元的趨勢反轉，其指標從溫和負向轉為強勁正向。加幣的趨勢亦從中性轉強為強勁正向。這些轉變發生之際，美元和人民幣則維持其強勁正向的趨勢。相較之下，日圓則守住其溫和負向的評估。此資訊指向市場對數個主要貨幣的評估已普遍改善。
圖表二：大宗商品(美元計價)
- 能源類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 農業類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBA): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 工業金屬(代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 貴金屬(代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 數位資產(代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
過去一週，主要大宗商品類股的趨勢評估維持穩定，未記錄到任何變化。既有的趨勢分歧格局持續存在。工業金屬維持強勁正向指標，而能源和貴金屬則守住其溫和正向的趨勢。相較之下，農業類大宗商品和數位資產則雙雙停留在強勁負向的趨勢區間。此一靜止的狀態顯示，大宗商品市場不同板塊之間獨特且普遍的趨勢仍在持續。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
U.S. Tech Rout Triggers Broad Market Sell-Off as Rate Cut Hopes Evaporate
A sharp reversal in Fed expectations and a brutal repricing of AI risk create sell off in equities.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-11-13
Executive Summary
- U.S. equities sold off sharply as the end of the government shutdown shifted focus to a less certain Federal Reserve policy, triggering a broad risk-off move.
- High-valuation technology stocks led the steep declines, confirming a powerful investor rotation out of the market's growth leadership and into defensive positions.
- Treasury yields rose as the market dramatically reduced the odds of a December rate cut, removing a key pillar of support for the recent equity rally.
- The end of the U.S. government shutdown, rather than boosting sentiment, increased uncertainty by paving the way for a deluge of delayed economic data.
- A dramatic spike in the CBOE Volatility Index confirmed a significant increase in investor anxiety, while a plunge in Bitcoin below $100,000 signaled a widespread capitulation in speculative assets.
The end of the U.S. government shutdown was not the bullish relief catalyst many anticipated; instead, it served as the trigger for a severe repricing of risk, as the market's focus snapped from political dysfunction back to fundamentals and a less predictable Federal Reserve. The result was a broad and punishing sell-off, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffering steep losses. This was not a nuanced rotation but a decisive flight to safety, confirmed by a sharp spike in the VIX and a capitulation in speculative assets like Bitcoin, which broke below the critical $100,000 level.
The sector at the epicenter of this unwinding was the market's undisputed leader: technology. The very same AI-related megacaps that propelled the market to record highs—NVIDIA, Tesla, Alphabet—led the declines as investors took profits. This signals a crucial shift in sentiment, where the long-term AI narrative is being temporarily overwhelmed by immediate concerns about stretched valuations and a less accommodative monetary policy. The bond market provided clear confirmation of this change, with yields ticking higher as the market-implied probability of a December Fed rate cut fell below 50%, a dramatic reversal from the prior week.
This powerful wave of global risk aversion poses a direct and immediate challenge to the Taiwan market. While local fundamentals remain exceptionally strong—highlighted by AMD's bullish long-term forecast and its confirmation of using TSMC's 2-nanometer process—these positives are being completely overshadowed by the global macro environment. The period of easy gains has ended, and the market must now navigate an environment with deteriorating global risk appetite.
Thursday Asset Focus: Currency & Commodity Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key currency pairs against the TWD and for major commodity sectors in USD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)
- U.S. Dollar (FX Pair: USDTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Euro (FX Pair: EURTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▼
- Japanese Yen (FX Pair: JPYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Chinese Yuan (FX Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Canadian Dollar (FX Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --
A significant strengthening occurred in several currencies against the TWD. The most notable shift was a trend reversal in the Euro, with its indicator moving from mildly negative to strongly positive. The Canadian Dollar also saw its trend strengthen from neutral to strongly positive. These changes occurred while the U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan maintained their strongly positive trends. In contrast, the Japanese Yen held its mildly negative assessment. This information points to a broad improvement for several major currencies.
Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)
- Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
The trend assessments for the major commodity sectors were stable over the past week, with no changes recorded. The established division in trends persisted. Industrial Metals maintained a strongly positive indicator, while Energy and Precious Metals held their mildly positive trends. In contrast, Agricultural Commodities and Digital Assets both remained in strongly negative trend territory. This lack of movement suggests a continuation of the distinct, prevailing trends across the different segments of the commodities market.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》
鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。