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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】和談與鴿派數據推升市場漲勢，然AI領漲族群出現分歧
烏俄協議進展與升高的降息押注，提振大盤走勢；儘管輝達(NVIDIA)因Google與Meta的競爭威脅而下滑。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年11月25日 美東時間
摘要
- 潛在的烏俄和平框架與鴿派的美國經濟數據，助燃了廣泛的風險偏好情緒，全球股市上漲。
- 大型科技股內部出現重大輪動：Alphabet與博通(Broadcom)因AI合作消息而飆漲，而輝達(NVIDIA)則因傳出Meta正探索採用Google晶片而下跌。
- 延後公布的通膨數據鞏固了市場對聯準會十二月降息的預期，公債殖利率應聲下跌至接近4.0%的年度低點。
- 傳聞中由美國支持的烏克蘭和平框架，雖對油價構成壓力，使其跌至年度低點，卻因降低地緣政治風險而提振了整體市場情緒。
- 黃金觸及歷史新高，與比特幣等投機性資產持續其強勁的分歧走勢；儘管大盤反彈，比特幣依然低迷。
在鴿派經濟數據與地緣政治緊張局勢潛在降溫的共同推動下，一個有利的「軟著陸」情境正具體化，市場正在復甦。美國股市於週二擴大漲幅，由醫療保健與非必需消費品類股領漲。主要的催化劑是延後公布的通膨與零售銷售報告，儘管數據好壞參半，但市場解讀為支持聯準會於十二月降息。市場現已反映下個月寬鬆政策的機率高達83%，此一信念將十年期公債殖利率推低至4.0%，追平了今年的最低水平。
然而，單一的AI漲勢正顯現分歧的跡象。科技產業內部出現顯著的兩極分化：Alphabet與博通(Broadcom)在報導指稱Meta正考慮採用Google的AI晶片後急遽上漲，此舉對輝達(NVIDIA)構成直接的競爭威脅。因此，輝達股價連續第二天回檔，此訊號顯示投資者正開始在AI生態系中挑選贏家與輸家，而非不分青紅皂白地買進整個產業。此一具選擇性的環境，更因原油價格在報導指稱美方支持烏俄和平框架、可能解鎖俄羅斯供應的消息驅動下，急遽下跌至年度低點而變得更為複雜。
此一轉變中的格局，為台灣市場提供了一個具建設性但波動的設定。台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)的飆漲與美國大盤的漲勢，為台股加權指數(TAIEX)收復27,000點關卡提供了立即性的支撐。圍繞蘋果(Apple)「無摺痕」可摺疊iPhone及其獨家生產夥伴鴻海(Hon Hai)的正面消息流，進一步強化了本地的基本面故事。然而，台股加權指數(TAIEX)在技術面上仍處於季線附近的盤整階段。對國內投資者而言，關鍵將是該指數能否守住週一的低點，並消化沉重的外資賣壓。當前環境有利於回歸基本面，在近期的波動中，矽智財(IP)、光通訊及特定蘋果供應鏈的受惠者正浮現機會。
週二資產焦點：亞洲指數與台灣個股趨勢
本摘要總結了關鍵亞洲股價指數(以美元計價)及台灣領先大型股(以新台幣計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：亞洲股價指數(美元計價)
- 台灣(代表性ETF: EWT): 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 香港(代表性ETF: EWH): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 新加坡(代表性ETF: EWS): 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 日本(代表性ETF: EWJ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
- 南韓(代表性ETF: EWY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
亞洲股市浮現多樣的趨勢變化格局。日本的趨勢指標轉強，從中性轉為溫和正向。相反地，香港的評估則見緩和，從強勁正向轉為溫和正向。台灣和新加坡的趨勢則維持中性，而南韓則守住其溫和正向的評級。此數據突顯了區域內主要指數之間不同的動能樣貌。
圖表二：台灣前五大企業(新台幣計價)
- 台灣積體電路製造(Ticker: 2330): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 鴻海精密工業(Ticker: 2317): 當前: ▼, 一週前: --
- 台達電子工業(Ticker: 2308): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 聯發科技(Ticker: 2454): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 廣達電腦(Ticker: 2382): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
台灣龍頭企業的趨勢評估顯示出特定領域的疲弱。鴻海精密的指標從中性轉為溫和負向。這使其與聯發科和廣達電腦的趨勢更為一致，後兩者皆維持其強勁負向的趨勢評級。相較之下，台積電和台達電則持穩於溫和正向的趨勢。此資訊顯示，這些不同科技龍頭群體之間的表現出現清晰分歧。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Markets Rally on Peace Talks and Dovish Data, But AI Leadership Fragments
Progress on a Ukraine-Russia deal and rising rate cut bets lift the broader market, even as NVIDIA slips on competitive threats from Google and Meta.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-11-25
Executive Summary
- Global equities advanced as a potential Ukraine-Russia peace framework and dovish U.S. economic data fueled broad risk-on sentiment.
- A major rotation emerged within big tech: Alphabet and Broadcom surged on AI partnership news, while NVIDIA fell as Meta reportedly explored using Google's chips.
- Treasury yields dropped to year-to-date lows near 4.0% as delayed inflation data cemented expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut.
- A reported U.S.-backed peace framework for Ukraine pressured oil prices to annual lows but boosted overall market sentiment by reducing geopolitical risk.
- Gold reached new record highs, continuing its powerful divergence from speculative assets like Bitcoin, which remains subdued despite the broader rally.
The market is recovering as a favorable "soft landing" scenario is materializing, driven by a convergence of dovish economic data and a potential de-escalation in geopolitical tensions. U.S. equities extended their gains on Tuesday, with healthcare and consumer discretionary stocks leading the advance. The primary catalysts were delayed inflation and retail sales reports which, while mixed, were interpreted as supportive of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The market has now priced in an 83% probability of easing next month, a conviction that drove the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.0%, matching its lowest level of the year.
However, the monolithic AI rally is showing signs of fragmentation. A significant divergence emerged within the technology sector: Alphabet and Broadcom rallied sharply on reports that Meta is considering using Google's AI chips, a direct competitive threat to NVIDIA. Consequently, NVIDIA shares retreated for a second day, signaling that investors are beginning to pick winners and losers within the AI ecosystem rather than buying the sector indiscriminately. This selective environment was further complicated by a sharp drop in crude oil prices to yearly lows, driven by reports of a U.S.-backed peace framework between Ukraine and Russia, which could unlock Russian supply.
This shifting landscape provides a constructive but volatile setup for the Taiwan market. A surge in TSMC's ADR and the broad U.S. rally offer immediate support for the TAIEX to reclaim the 27,000-point level. The positive news flow around Apple's "crease-free" foldable iPhone and Hon Hai's exclusive production role further strengthens the local fundamental story. However, the TAIEX remains in a technical consolidation phase near its quarterly moving average. The key for domestic investors will be whether the index can hold above Monday's lows and digest the heavy foreign selling pressure. The environment favors a return to fundamentals, with opportunities in IP, optical communications, and specific Apple supply chain beneficiaries emerging from the recent volatility.
Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key Asian equity indices in USD terms and for Taiwan's leading large-cap companies in TWD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)
- Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Singapore (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
A varied set of trend changes emerged across Asian equity markets. The trend indicator for Japan strengthened, moving from neutral to mildly positive. Conversely, the assessment for Hong Kong moderated, shifting from strongly positive to mildly positive. The trends for Taiwan and Singapore remained neutral, while South Korea maintained its mildly positive rating. This data highlights differing momentum profiles across the region's major indices.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturng Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
- Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
Trend assessments for Taiwan's leading companies showed specific areas of weakness. Hon Hai Precision’s indicator shifted from neutral to mildly negative. This aligns it closer to MediaTek and Quanta Computer, both of which maintained their strongly negative trend ratings. In contrast, Taiwan Semiconductor and Delta Electronics held steady with mildly positive trends. This information suggests a clear split in performance between these distinct groups of technology leaders.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。