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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】聯準會降息押注，點燃感恩節前漲勢
疲弱的消費數據與鴿派聯準會主席的預期，助燃市場強勁反彈；台股有望收復關鍵水平。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年11月26日 美東時間
摘要
- 在聯準會十二月降息預期升溫的驅動下，美股在感恩節假期前擴大漲勢。
- 科技股領漲族群顯著擴散至輝達(Nvidia)以外，Alphabet創下歷史新高，戴爾(Dell)亦因強勁的AI需求而上漲，預示著更健康的市場結構。
- 在報導指稱鴿派候選人有望成為下屆聯準會主席的助燃下，市場已反映十二月降息機率超過80%，公債殖利率應聲跌破4.0%。
- 美國消費者信心跌至數月低點，強化了貨幣寬鬆的必要性，而提振了股市。
- 比特幣急遽反彈至90,000美元以上，打破了負面的季節性趨勢，預示著跨資產類別的風險偏好回歸。
美國指數在感恩節前連續第四日擴大漲勢，標普500指數與那斯達克指數上漲近1%。主要催化劑是市場對聯準會將於十二月降息的信念日益增強，此一看法更受疲弱的消費數據，以及報導指稱對商界友好的凱文·哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)是聯準會主席的熱門人選所強化。此一背景將十年期公債殖利率推低至4.0%以下，為風險性資產提供了強勁的順風。
關鍵的是，科技股漲勢的性格正在演變。投資者不再僅僅依賴輝達(NVIDIA)；相反地，資本正輪動至更廣泛的AI受惠者，如Alphabet、戴爾(Dell)和博通(Broadcom)。此一更廣泛的參與度，是漲勢更為健康、更具持久性的跡象。這直接使多元化的台灣供應鏈受惠，範圍已超越純粹的GPU製造，擴及其他公司。比特幣同步反彈至90,000美元以上，以及VIX指數降至18-19的水平，確認了恐懼情緒正在消退，且風險偏好正全面回歸。
對台灣市場而言，此一格局提供了明確的復甦路徑。台股加權指數(TAIEX)已在季線附近回穩，隨著技術指標轉為正向，該指數有望挑戰27,000點的關卡。政府確認對先進IC設計的補貼承諾，以及Google以其TPU v7積極推進高效能AI的發展，皆提供了強勁的長期基本面支撐。對投資者而言，當前的策略應是利用此波回檔，在更廣泛的AI生態系中——特別是矽智財(IP)和先進封裝領域——分批佈局，因為市場正從一個狹隘的、以輝達為中心的交易，轉向一個更全面的增長故事。
週三資產焦點：美國經濟與債券趨勢
本摘要總結了美國關鍵經濟指標和美國公債ETF為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：美國宏觀經濟
- 投資存續期間: 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▼
- 企業獲利: 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 通貨膨脹: 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 貨幣流量(流入美元): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
- 消費者信心: 當前: --, 一週前: --
過去一週，美國特定經濟指標觀察到明顯的改善。投資存續期間的趨勢出現反轉，從溫和負向轉為溫和正向。此外，貨幣流量(流入美元)的指標亦回穩，從溫和負向轉為中性。這些改善發生之際，其他領域則呈現穩定；消費者信心和通貨膨脹維持中性，而企業獲利則守住溫和負向的評估。
圖表二：美國公債(美元計價)
- 1-3年期美國公債(代表性ETF: SHY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
- 3-7年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: --
- 7-10年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEF): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: --
- 10-20年期美國公債(代表性ETF: TLH): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
- 20年期以上美國公債(代表性ETF: TLT): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
美國公債市場的趨勢出現基礎廣泛的轉強。殖利率曲線的中段動能最為顯著，3-7年期和7-10年期公債的指標皆從中性躍升至強勁正向。短天期(1-3年期)和10-20年期券種亦見改善，從中性轉為溫和正向。此外，20年期以上券種亦回穩，從溫和負向轉為中性。此數據顯示，市場對整體殖利率曲線的評估已出現同步的正向轉變。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Fed Rate Cut Bets Spark Pre-Thanksgiving Rally
Softer consumer data and hopes for a dovish Fed chair fuel a robust market rebound, with the TAIEX poised to reclaim key levels.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-11-26
Executive Summary
- U.S. equities extended their rally into the Thanksgiving holiday, driven by firming expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut.
- Technology leadership broadened significantly beyond Nvidia, with Alphabet reaching record highs and Dell advancing on strong AI demand, signaling a healthier market structure.
- Treasury yields fell below 4.0% as the market priced in an 80%+ probability of a December rate cut, fueled by reports that a dovish candidate is favored for the next Fed Chair.
- U.S. consumer confidence dropped to multi-month lows, paradoxically boosting stocks by reinforcing the case for monetary easing.
- Bitcoin rebounded sharply above $90,000, breaking a negative seasonal trend and signaling a return of risk appetite across asset classes.
U.S. indices extended their pre-Thanksgiving rally for a fourth consecutive day, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq adding nearly 1%. The primary catalyst was a growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, a view reinforced by soft consumer data and reports that the business-friendly Kevin Hassett is a leading candidate for Fed Chair. This backdrop sent the 10-year Treasury yield below 4.0%, providing a potent tailwind for risk assets.
Crucially, the character of the tech rally is evolving. Investors are no longer solely dependent on NVIDIA; instead, capital is rotating into a wider array of AI beneficiaries like Alphabet, Dell, and Broadcom. This broadening participation is a sign of a healthier, more durable advance. It directly benefits the diverse Taiwan supply chain, moving beyond just GPU manufacturing to include other companies. The simultaneous rebound in Bitcoin above $90,000 and the drop in the VIX to the high teens confirm that fear is receding and risk appetite is returning across the board.
For the Taiwan market, this setup offers a clear path to recovery. The TAIEX has stabilized near its quarterly moving average, and with technical indicators turning positive, the index is poised to challenge the 27,000-point level. The government's confirmed commitment to subsidizing advanced IC design and Google's aggressive push into efficient AI with its TPU v7 provide strong, long-term fundamental support. The immediate strategy for investors should be to use this pullback to accumulate positions in the broader AI ecosystem—specifically in IP and advanced packaging—as the market shifts from a narrow, Nvidia-centric trade to a more comprehensive growth story.
Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economic & Bond Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key U.S. economic indicators and U.S. Treasury bond ETFs. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators
- Investment Duration: Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼
- Corporate Earnings: Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Inflation: Current: --, Last Week: --
- Currency Flow (into USD): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- Consumer Strength: Current: --, Last Week: --
A distinct improvement was observed in select U.S. economic indicators over the past week. The trend for Investment Duration reversed, shifting from mildly negative to mildly positive. Additionally, the indicator for Currency Flow (into USD) stabilized, moving from mildly negative to neutral. These improvements stand against a backdrop of stability elsewhere; Consumer Strength and Inflation remained neutral, while Corporate Earnings maintained a mildly negative assessment.
Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)
- 1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- 3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --
- 7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --
- 10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- 20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
A broad-based strengthening of trends occurred across the U.S. Treasury market. The intermediate portion of the curve saw the most significant momentum, with the indicators for 3-7 Year and 7-10 Year Treasuries jumping from neutral to strongly positive. The short end (1-3 Year) and the 10-20 Year segment also improved, moving from neutral to mildly positive. Furthermore, the 20+ Year segment stabilized, shifting from mildly negative to neutral. This data indicates a coordinated positive shift in assessment across the entire yield curve.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。