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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】科技與工業股在全球逆風中引領反彈
疲弱的美國製造業數據鞏固聯準會降息押注，助燃科技股復甦；然攀升的公債殖利率，為台灣市場創造了波動的背景。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年12月2日 美東時間
摘要
- 疲弱的製造業數據強化了聯準會十二月降息的預期，美股反彈，提振了科技與工業類股。
- 市場反映聯準會寬鬆政策的機率達83%，公債殖利率穩定在4.1%附近；然日本公債殖利率上揚，持續構成跨境壓力。
- 亞馬遜AWS與Google Cloud的新雲端合作夥伴關係，為AI伺服器個股提供了特定催化劑，抵銷了鴻海大股東賣股的負面情緒。
- 比特幣回彈至91,000美元以上，預示著在本週稍早的猛烈清算事件後，風險偏好可能回穩。
疲弱的製造業數據成為一個弔詭的「壞消息即是好消息」的催化劑，鞏固了聯準會於十二月降息的理由，並點燃了科技股與工業股的反彈。此一釋壓性漲勢，更受到特定企業消息的支撐，包括亞馬遜AWS與Google Cloud之間一項里程碑式的合作夥伴關係，此消息重新點燃了市場對AI伺服器供應鏈的興趣。與此同時，比特幣回升至91,000美元以上，顯示近期加密貨幣清算的劇烈階段可能正在過去，從而穩定更廣泛的風險情緒。
然而，台灣市場的圖像則更為不穩。儘管全球背景正向，台股加權指數(TAIEX)於週一不敵尾盤賣壓，收在當日最低點，並跌破5日與月移動平均線。此一技術性跌破由台積電(TSMC)所引領，儘管其基本面前景強勁，但仍面臨新的賣壓。為本地市場增添逆風的是，郭台銘長女拋售鴻海(Hon Hai)持股的消息，此舉立即對市場情緒造成拖累，蓋過了該公司看漲的AI伺服器前景。
美國市場的反彈與台灣市場的技術性疲弱之間的分歧，為今日盤勢設定了一個關鍵的格局。台股加權指數(TAIEX)目前正在一個量縮的盤整階段交易，以「以時間換取空間」的方式消化近期的漲幅。該指數若要重新站穩腳步並挑戰新高，需要看到三個清晰的訊號：成交量持續維持在新台幣5,000億元以上、大型科技龍頭股回穩，以及比特幣等投機性資產持續復甦。
週二資產焦點：區域指數與台灣個股趨勢
本摘要總結了關鍵亞洲股價指數(以美元計價)及台灣領先大型股(以新台幣計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：區域股價指數(美元計價)
- 台灣(代表性ETF: EWT): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
- 香港(代表性ETF: EWH): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 新加坡(代表性ETF: EWS): 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 日本(代表性ETF: EWJ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 南韓(代表性ETF: EWY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
過去一週，亞洲主要股市的趨勢評估大致穩定，但有一個顯著的改善。台灣的指標從中性轉強為溫和正向，使其與香港、日本和南韓的趨勢一致，後三者皆維持其溫和正向的趨勢。新加坡則仍是例外，守住其中性的評估。此數據指向區域內大多數指數的前景普遍具建設性但溫和。
圖表二：台灣前五大企業(新台幣計價)
- 台灣積體電路製造(Ticker: 2330): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 鴻海精密工業(Ticker: 2317): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 台達電子工業(Ticker: 2308): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 聯發科技(Ticker: 2454): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼▼
- 廣達電腦(Ticker: 2382): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼▼
台灣科技龍頭股的趨勢出現顯著改善。聯發科與廣達電腦的指標，皆從強勁負向轉為中性，顯示下行壓力可能正在減緩。與此同時，台積電和台達電維持其溫和正向的趨勢，而鴻海精密則守住其溫和負向的評估。此資訊突顯了先前表現顯著疲弱的特定公司，其市場情緒已有所復甦。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Tech and Industrials Lead Rebound Amid Global Headwinds
Weak U.S. manufacturing data cements Fed rate cut bets, fueling a tech recovery; however, rising bond yields create a volatile backdrop for Taiwan.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-12-02
Executive Summary
- U.S. equities rebounded as weak manufacturing data reinforced expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, lifting technology and industrial stocks.
- Treasury yields stabilized near 4.1% as the market priced in an 83% probability of Fed easing, though rising Japanese yields continue to exert cross-border pressure.
- A new cloud partnership between Amazon AWS and Google Cloud provided a specific catalyst for AI server stocks, countering negative sentiment from a sale of Hon Hai shares by a major shareholder.
- Bitcoin snapped back above $91,000, signaling a potential stabilization in risk appetite after a severe liquidation event earlier in the week.
Weak manufacturing data served as a paradoxical "bad news is good news" catalyst, cementing the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and sparking a rebound in tech and industrial shares. This relief rally was further supported by specific corporate news, including a landmark partnership between Amazon AWS and Google Cloud, which reignited interest in the AI server supply chain. Simultaneously, Bitcoin's recovery above $91,000 suggests that the acute phase of the recent crypto liquidation may be passing, stabilizing broader risk sentiment.
However, the picture for the Taiwan market is more precarious. Despite the positive global backdrop, the TAIEX succumbed to late-session selling pressure on Monday, closing at its daily low and breaking below both the 5-day and monthly moving averages. This technical breakdown was led by TSMC, which faced renewed selling despite its strong fundamental outlook. Adding to the local headwinds, news that a major shareholder associated with Terry Gou is selling a block of Hon Hai shares created an immediate sentiment drag, overshadowing the company's bullish AI server forecast.
The divergence between the U.S. rebound and Taiwan's technical weakness sets up a critical session. The TAIEX is currently trading in a volume-light consolidation phase, "trading time for space" as it digests recent gains. For the index to regain its footing and challenge new highs, it needs to see three clear signals: sustained trading volume above NT$500 billion, stabilization in large-cap tech leaders, and a continued recovery in speculative assets like Bitcoin.
Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key Asian equity indices in USD terms and for Taiwan's leading large-cap companies in TWD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)
- Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Singapore (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
The trend assessments for major Asian equity markets were largely stable over the past week, with one notable improvement. The indicator for Taiwan strengthened from neutral to mildly positive, bringing it in line with Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea, which all maintained their mildly positive trends. Singapore remained the outlier, holding its neutral assessment. This data points to a generally constructive but moderate outlook across the majority of the region's indices.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (Ticker: 2330): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Mediatek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼
- Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼
Significant trend improvements occurred among Taiwan's technology leaders. Both MediaTek and Quanta Computer saw their indicators shift from strongly negative to neutral, suggesting a potential easing of downward pressure. Meanwhile, Taiwan Semiconductor and Delta Electronics maintained their mildly positive trends, and Hon Hai Precision held its mildly negative assessment. This information highlights a recovery in sentiment for specific companies that had previously shown significant weakness.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。