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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】疲弱就業數據使聯準會降息幾成定局，市場應聲上漲
民間就業人數意外下滑，鞏固十二月寬鬆押注。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年12月3日 美東時間
摘要
- 出乎意料疲弱的勞動市場數據，將聯準會十二月降息的隱含機率推升至近90%，美股應聲上漲。
- 在有利的技術面格局與歷史上十二月強勁表現的傾向支撐下，台股加權指數(TAIEX)有望進一步上漲。
- 市場消化ADP報告顯示民間就業人數萎縮的消息，強化了立即實施貨幣寬鬆的理由，公債殖利率應聲下跌。
- ADP全國就業報告揭露十一月份就業人數意外減少32,000人，成為重燃風險偏好情緒的主要催化劑。
- 比特幣反彈至93,000美元以上，預示在殖利率走低與正面的監管訊號驅動下，投機偏好正在回歸。
一份出乎意料疲弱的ADP就業報告——顯示十一月份民間部門就業人數減少32,000人，與預期的增加形成對比——已將市場論述從「他們會降息嗎？」轉變為「他們必須降息」。在政府關門造成的數據真空中，此一勞動市場的惡化，已迫使市場反映聯準會下週寬鬆政策的機率近90%。市場的反應是一場典型的「壞消息即是好消息」的漲勢：隨著流動性的水龍頭看似即將重啟，公債殖利率下跌、美元走軟，股市則上揚。
此一鴿派轉向，正為全球風險性資產提供強勁的順風。在美國，金融與能源等週期性類股領漲，而小型股則飆升超過1%，預示市場參與度正在擴大。比特幣反彈回93,000美元以上，進一步確認了在近期的清算事件後，風險偏好正在復甦。對台灣市場而言，格局日益看漲。隨著外部宏觀環境轉為有利，且台股加權指數(TAIEX)展現有利的技術偏向，挑戰新高的舞台已然搭好。法人投資者在十二月強勁的「作帳行情」歷史傾向，與此波重燃的全球樂觀情緒完美契合。
週三資產焦點：美國經濟與債券趨勢
本摘要總結了美國關鍵經濟指標和美國公債ETF為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：美國宏觀經濟
- 投資存續期間: 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 企業獲利: 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
- 通貨膨脹: 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 貨幣流量(流入美元): 當前: ▼, 一週前: --
- 消費者信心: 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
過去一週，美國國內關鍵領域浮現正面動能。消費者信心的趨勢從中性改善至溫和正向，而企業獲利的指標則回穩，從溫和負向轉為中性。這些改善與貨幣流量(流入美元)指標形成對比，後者從中性轉弱為溫和負向。投資存續期間和通貨膨脹的評估則維持不變，顯示經濟背景好壞參半但普遍趨於穩固。
圖表二：美國公債(美元計價)
- 1-3年期美國公債(代表性ETF: SHY): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
- 3-7年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 7-10年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEF): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 10-20年期美國公債(代表性ETF: TLH): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▲
- 20年期以上美國公債(代表性ETF: TLT): 當前: ▼, 一週前: --
美國公債殖利率曲線的趨勢評估出現清晰的對比。中期券種(3-7年期和7-10年期)維持其強勁正向的評級，突顯了殖利率曲線中段的持續強勢。然而，長天期部分則顯著轉弱；10-20年期指標從溫和正向反轉為溫和負向，而20年期以上趨勢則從中性下滑至溫和負向。短天期公債亦見趨緩，轉為中性評估。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Markets Rally as Fed Rate Cut Becomes Near Certainty With Weak Jobs Data
A surprise decline in private payrolls cements bets on December easing.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-12-03
Executive Summary
- U.S. equities rallied as unexpectedly weak labor market data pushed the implied probability of a December Federal Reserve rate cut near 90%.
- The TAIEX is poised for further gains, supported by a favorable technical setup and the historical tendency for a strong December performance.
- Treasury yields fell as the market digested the ADP report showing a contraction in private payrolls, reinforcing the case for immediate monetary easing.
- The ADP National Employment Report revealed a surprise loss of 32,000 jobs in November, serving as the primary catalyst for the renewed risk-on sentiment.
- Bitcoin rebounded above $93,000, signaling a return of speculative appetite driven by lower yields and positive regulatory signals.
A surprisingly weak ADP employment report, which showed the private sector shedding 32,000 jobs in November against expectations of a gain, has shifted the narrative from "will they?" to "they must." This deterioration in the labor market, occurring amidst a data vacuum caused by the government shutdown, has forced the market to price in a nearly 90% probability of Federal Reserve easing next week. The reaction was a classic "bad news is good news" rally: Treasury yields fell, the dollar softened, and equities advanced as the liquidity spigot appeared set to reopen.
This dovish pivot is providing a powerful tailwind for risk assets globally. In the U.S., cyclical sectors like financials and energy led the advance, while small-caps surged over 1%, signaling broadening market participation. Bitcoin's bounce back above $93,000 further confirms that risk appetite is recovering after the recent liquidation event. For the Taiwan market, the setup is increasingly bullish. With the external macro environment turning supportive and the TAIEX exhibiting a favorable technical bias, the stage is set for a run at new highs. The historical tendency for a strong December "window dressing" rally by institutional investors aligns perfectly with this renewed global optimism.
Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economic & Bond Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key U.S. economic indicators and U.S. Treasury bond ETFs. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators
- Investment Duration: Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Corporate Earnings: Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- Inflation: Current: --, Last Week: --
- Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
- Consumer Strength: Current: ▲, Last Week: --
Positive momentum developed in key domestic areas over the past week. The trend for Consumer Strength improved from neutral to mildly positive, while the indicator for Corporate Earnings stabilized, moving from mildly negative to neutral. These improvements contrast with the Currency Flow (into USD) indicator, which weakened from neutral to mildly negative. Investment Duration and Inflation assessments remained unchanged, suggesting a mixed but generally firming economic backdrop.
Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)
- 1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
- 3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- 7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- 10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲
- 20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
A clear contrast in trend assessments emerged across the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Intermediate maturities (3-7 Year and 7-10 Year) maintained their strongly positive ratings, highlighting persistent strength in the belly of the curve. However, the long end weakened significantly; the 10-20 Year indicator reversed from mildly positive to mildly negative, and the 20+ Year trend dipped from neutral to mildly negative. Short-term bonds also softened, moving to a neutral assessment.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。