Wall Street expectsSpace Exploration Technologies Corp.(NASDAQ) to grow its revenue at a pace that would leave evenNvidia Corp.(NASDAQ) in the dust — andElon Musksays analysts still aren't thinking big enough.
華爾街預計Space Exploration Technologies Corp.（納斯達克）的營收增速將快到連輝達公司（納斯達克）都望塵莫及——而埃隆·馬斯克表示，分析師們的想法仍然不夠大膽。
Ticker Take founderJon Erlichmanshared a chart comparing analysts' five-year revenue growth estimates for some of the world's largest companies. SpaceX topped the list with projected revenue growth of 2,090%. It stood far ahead of Nvidia's 288%,Alphabet Inc's (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) 140%,Microsoft Corp's (NASDAQ:MSFT) 136%,Amazon.com Inc's (NASDAQ:AMZN) 81% andApple Inc's (NASDAQ:AAPL) 54%.
Ticker Take創始人Jon Erlichman分享了一張圖表，比較了全球一些最大公司的分析師五年營收增長預期。SpaceX以預計2,090%的營收增長率位居榜首，遠超輝達的288%、Alphabet Inc（納斯達克：GOOGL）（納斯達克：GOOG）的140%、微軟（納斯達克：MSFT）的136%、亞馬遜（納斯達克：AMZN）的81%以及蘋果（納斯達克：AAPL）的54%。
That means Wall Street already expects SpaceX's revenue to grow at more than seven times Nvidia's pace over the next five years. It's a remarkable comparison considering Nvidia has become the defining winner of the artificial intelligence boom; while SpaceX is still widely viewed as a rocket company despite its rapidly expanding businesses.
這意味著，華爾街已經預計SpaceX未來五年的營收增速將超過輝達的七倍以上。考慮到輝達已成為人工智慧熱潮中的標誌性贏家，而SpaceX儘管業務迅速擴張，卻仍被普遍視為一家火箭公司，這一對比尤為引人注目。
Are Analysts Still Too Conservative on SpaceX?
分析師對SpaceX的預期是否仍然過於保守？
Responding to the chart on X, Musk wrote, "I think both SpaceX and Tesla will exceed these estimates."
Musk在X平台上回應這張圖表時寫道：「我認為SpaceX和特斯拉都將超出這些預期。」
While the comment covered both companies, SpaceX's projection stands out. Analysts are already modeling an extraordinary 2,090% revenue increase over the next five years—compared with 119% forTesla Inc(NASDAQ:TSLA) and 288% for Nvidia.
儘管這條評論同時提到了兩家公司，但SpaceX的預測尤為突出。分析師已經在模型中預測其未來五年營收將實現驚人的2,090%增長——相比之下，特斯拉（納斯達克：TSLA）為119%，輝達為288%。
In other words, Musk isn't just saying SpaceX will outperform expectations; he's arguing that even one of Wall Street's most optimistic growth forecasts still doesn't go far enough.
換句話說，Musk不僅認為SpaceX將超越預期，他還主張，即便是華爾街最樂觀的增長預測之一，也仍未充分反映其潛力。
Analyst optimism stems from Starlink's subscriber growth and the company's push into AI infrastructure — businesses that drive future revenue alongside rocket launch operations.
分析師的樂觀情緒源於Starlink用戶數量的增長以及該公司向AI基礎設施領域的拓展——這些業務將與火箭發射業務共同推動未來的營收增長。
Reuters has also reported that SpaceX expects to reach a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2026.
路透社還報導稱，SpaceX預計到2026年底將達到$1,000億的年化營收運行率。
The next question is whether SpaceX can deliver.
下一個問題是SpaceX能否兌現承諾。
If Starlink continues to scale and AI becomes a meaningful revenue contributor, today's seemingly extraordinary forecasts may eventually look conservative. That possibility—not just the comparison with Nvidia—is what makes Musk's brief response worth paying attention to.
如果Starlink繼續擴大規模，且人工智慧成為有意義的收入來源，那麼如今看似非凡的預測最終可能會顯得保守。這種可能性——而不僅僅是與輝達的比較——才是馬斯克簡短回應值得關注的原因。
Musk's Track Record of Overpromising Looms Over SpaceX
Musk屢次過度承諾的過往記錄籠罩著SpaceX
It's a familiar story: Musk once predicted Twitter would generate more than $26 billion in revenue and nearly quintuple its customer base by 2028, but the company fell far short, with ad revenue plunging.
這是一個熟悉的故事：Musk曾預測Twitter到2028年將創造超過$260億的收入，並將其客戶群幾乎增至五倍，但該公司遠未達標，廣告收入大幅下滑。
The failed projections have raised concerns about Musk's similarly ambitious promises for SpaceX.
這些失敗的預測引發了人們對Musk為SpaceX做出的同樣雄心勃勃承諾的擔憂。
Those concerns have intensified after SpaceX's first public-company earnings showed a $541 million quarterly net loss and $4.3 billion loss in the first quarter, alongside massive capital spending.
在SpaceX首次作為上市公司的業績顯示其季度淨虧損達$5.41億，第一季度虧損$43億，同時伴隨巨額資本支出之後，這些擔憂進一步加劇。(Benzinga)