In April 2015, Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) was a $12 billion maker of graphics cards for video gamers.
2015年4月，輝達公司（納斯達克：NVDA）是一家市值120億美元的視頻遊戲顯卡製造商。
Today, it is worth more than $5 trillion and powers the artificial intelligence boom.
如今，它的市值已超過5兆美元，並推動了人工智慧的蓬勃發展。
Yet, Nvidia's stock has just hit its biggest discount to the market since then.
然而，輝達的股價目前已創下自那以來相對於大盤的最大折價。
Wall Street expects Nvidia to earn $12.03 per share over the next 12 months. At the end of 2022, that estimate was roughly 40 cents.
華爾街預計輝達在未來12個月每股收益為12.03美元。而在2022年底，這一預期僅為約40美分。
At around $215, the stock trades at about 18 times those expected earnings. The S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), trades at 19 times.
在約215美元的價位，該股票的市盈率約為預期盈利的18倍。由標普500ETF-SPDR（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）跟蹤的標普500指數的市盈率為19倍。
So why is the market paying less for a company that keeps earning more?
那麼，爲什麼市場對一家持續盈利增長的公司卻給出了更低的估值呢？
輝達周線圖、未來12個月每股收益預期及前瞻市盈率。來源：TradingView
Nvidia Stock Trades at an 11% Discount to the Market
輝達股價較市場水平折價11%
When OpenAI launched ChatGPT in November 2022, Nvidia traded at more than 40 times forward earnings.
2022年11月，當OpenAI推出ChatGPT時，輝達的股價市盈率已超過40倍。
Since then, profits have risen far faster than the share price.
自那以來，利潤的增速遠高於股價的漲幅。
As a result, the multiple fell to 18 at Friday's close, less than half its 2022 level and near the lowest reading in eight years.
因此，該指標在周五收盤時降至18倍，不到2022年水平的一半，且接近八年來的最低點。
The comparison with the broader market is even more striking.
與更廣泛的市場相比，這一對比更加引人注目。
At Friday's close, Nvidia traded at an 11% discount to the average company in the S&P 500. The gap had not been this wide since April 2015, when the company's biggest customers were still gamers rather than hyperscalers.
截至周五收盤，輝達的股價較標準普爾500指數成分股的平均水平折價11%。這一折價幅度自2015年4月以來尚屬首次，彼時該公司最大的客戶群體仍是遊戲玩家，而非超大規模雲服務提供商。
Two Fears Are Weighing on Nvidia Stock
兩大擔憂正拖累輝達股價
The first concern is how long its biggest customers can keep spending.
首要擔憂在於其最大客戶還能持續消費多久。
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META), Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) are on track to invest $930 billion this year. Estimates point to $1.35 trillion next year.
微軟公司（納斯達克：MSFT）、亞馬遜公司（納斯達克：AMZN）、字母表公司（納斯達克：GOOGL）、Meta Platforms公司（納斯達克：META）、甲骨文公司（紐約證券交易所：ORCL）以及太空探索技術公司（納斯達克：SPCX）今年有望投資9300億美元。預計明年這一數字將增至1.35兆美元。
After that, however, the curve flattens. Projections show $1.45 trillion the following year and $1.415 trillion the year after.
然而，此後曲線趨於平緩。預測顯示，次年爲1.45兆美元，再下一年爲1.415兆美元。
For this reason, if spending stops growing, Nvidia's growth faces the same ceiling.
因此，一旦支出不再增長，輝達的增速也將面臨同樣的天花板。
The second fear is the neoclouds.
第二種恐懼是新雲。
Companies such as CoreWeave Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWV) and Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS) borrow money to buy Nvidia chips, then rent that computing power to AI developers.
諸如CoreWeave公司（納斯達克股票代碼：CRWV）和Nebius集團股份有限公司（納斯達克股票代碼：NBIS）之類的公司通過借款購買輝達芯片，然後將這些算力租借給人工智能開發者。
The model works as long as demand stays high and money stays cheap. Lately, both conditions are being tested.
只要需求保持旺盛、資金成本依然低廉，這一模式就能奏效。然而近來，這兩項條件都面臨考驗。
Investors now demand more than 16% to lend to CoreWeave, and its shares have lost 42% over the past month. Nebius is down 38% over the same stretch, and both fell more than 3% in early trading Monday.
投資者如今要求超過16%的殖利率才願向CoreWeave放貸，而其股價在過去一個月內已下跌42%。Nebius在同一時期也下挫38%，兩者在周一早盤均跌逾3%。
Even Jensen Huang acknowledged the problem on Oct. 22, saying demand for computing far exceeds the capital available to finance it. Nvidia fell 4.4% that day.
甚至黃仁勳也在10月22日承認了這一問題，稱對計算的需求遠遠超過了可用於爲其提供資金的資本。當天，輝達股價下跌了4.4%。
The financing question resurfaced Monday. Meta, which plans a $95 billion funding push for its AI ambitions, said Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) and Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) had each indicated interest in buying up to $5 billion of shares in its stock offering.
融資問題於周一再度浮現。Meta計劃爲其人工智能雄心投入950億美元，該公司表示，輝達、美國超微公司（納斯達克：AMD）和博通公司（納斯達克：AVGO）均已表示有意在其股票發行中認購最多50億美元的股份。
In other words, the chipmakers are now helping fund one of their biggest customers.
換句話說，芯片製造商如今正在爲他們最大的客戶之一提供資金支持。
Wall Street Still Sees the Discount as an Opportunity
華爾街仍視折價爲機遇
Analysts, however, are not backing away.
然而，分析師們並未退縮。
Nvidia has a consensus Buy rating from the 29 analysts tracked by Benzinga Analyst Ratings. Their average price target of $343 implies about 59% upside. Over the past three months, targets have ranged from $300 to $515, the high end set by Raymond James.
在Benzinga分析師評級追蹤的29位分析師中，輝達獲得一致的「買入」評級。其平均目標價爲343美元，較當前股價有約59%的上行空間。過去三個月，各機構的目標價介於300美元至515美元之間，其中最高目標價由雷蒙德·詹姆斯設定。
The most recent call came on Oct. 22, when Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton maintained a Buy rating and a $300 target.
最新一次評級發佈於10月22日，當時尼德姆公司的分析師N·奎因·博爾頓維持「買入」評級，並將目標價定爲300美元。
| Date | Firm | Price Target | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Needham | $300 | Maintains | Buy |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | $350 | Maintains | Overweight |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Rosenblatt | $390 | Maintains | Buy |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Piper Sandler | $300 | Initiates | Overweight |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | $465 | Raises | Outperform |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Raymond James | $352 → $515 | Raises | Strong Buy |
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse reiterated an Overweight rating and a $350 target after attending Huang's GTC Berlin keynote.
Cantor Fitzgerald分析師C.J. Muse在出席黃仁勳於柏林舉行的GTC主題演講後，重申了「增持」評級及350美元的目標價。
Muse said Nvidia's guidance for more than 70% revenue growth in calendar 2027 looks very conservative.
Muse表示，輝達對2027日曆年營收增長逾70%的指引顯得十分保守。
He highlighted demand that still supports well above 100% growth, and supply deals that should expand Nvidia's substrate capacity 2.5 times over three years.
他強調，市場需求依然強勁，有望實現超過100%的同比增長；同時，相關供應協議將在三年內使輝達的基板產能擴大2.5倍。
With shares trading at less than 10 times Cantor's calendar 2028 earnings estimate, the stock is "simply too hard to ignore," Muse said.
由於該股股價僅爲坎託公司2028年日曆年度盈利預期的10倍以下，穆斯表示，這隻股票「實在令人難以忽視」。
The Market Has Doubted Nvidia Before
市場此前也曾對輝達持懷疑態度
In 2015, investors priced Nvidia as a gaming company with limited prospects. That discount turned out to be one of the great mispricings in market history.
2015年，投資者將輝達視爲一家前景有限的遊戲公司。然而，這一估值折價後來被證明是市場史上最爲重大的定價失誤之一。
Today, they are pricing the world's main AI supplier as if its growth is about to stall.
如今，市場正以一種彷彿這家全球主要人工智能供應商的增長即將停滯的估值來定價。
Whether that doubt proves equally misplaced no longer depends on demand for Nvidia's chips. It depends on whether its customers can keep paying for them.
這種疑慮是否同樣站不住腳，已不再取決於對輝達芯片的需求，而取決於其客戶能否持續爲其買單。 (Benzinga)