全球資本流動顯示投資形式潛在結構性變化

作者：Joe Lu, CFA 2025年4月12日 美東時間

免責聲明：本文件僅供參考，不構成投資建議。

一週市場觀點

過去一週見證了一系列非比尋常的市場事件，可能預示全球投資模式根本性的轉變。雖然股市在經歷歷史性波動後趨於穩定，標普500指數創下自2023年11月以來最佳單週表現，但跨資產類別的整體情況揭示了可能正在進行更重大的結構性變化。

同時，儘管股市上漲，美國國債殖利率仍繼續急劇攀升，債券市場釋出令人擔憂的訊號。10年期國債殖利率經歷了自2021年11月以來最顯著的單週飆升，而30年期國債殖利率則經歷了自1982年以來最大的單週上漲。股票上漲與債券價格下跌之間的這種異常背離挑戰了傳統的避險動態，並顯示全球資本配置可能發生結構性變化。

最引人注目的發展是黃金突破每盎司3,200美元的歷史高位，完成了自2020年以來最佳單週表現，月漲幅高達+10.69%。在股市穩定的情況下，這種卓越表現暗示的不僅僅是典型的避險定位—它表明機構投資組合中可能重新評估美元的角色。MLIV Pulse調查強化了這一觀點，顯示投資者越來越傾向於降低美國資產曝險，轉而青睞歐洲和其他發達市場。

美元指數跌破心理層面重要的100點位關卡，這是自2022年4月以來的首次跌破，進一步支持國際投資偏好正在改變的論點。市場策略師指出，美國的成長優勢似乎「終於消失」，投資者越來越多地轉向歐洲和亞洲資產。

市場歷史性波動的政治層面，為已經複雜的投資格局增添了另一層不確定性。數名資深民主黨參議院黨員呼籲美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 針對與總統關稅公告及隨後暫停相關的潛在市場操縱和內線交易進行調查。圍繞這些政策決定的異常市場走勢，包括總統在宣布關稅暫停前幾小時在社交媒體上敦促投資者買入股票的發文，引起了治理方面的擔憂，可能進一步影響投資者對美國市場的信心。

一週市場摘要：

• 全球市場經歷極端波動後於週五反彈，標普500指數創下自2023年以來最佳單週表現
• 儘管股市上漲，美國國債仍面臨壓力，10年期公債殖利率創下自2021年以來最大單週飆升
• 金價突破3,200美元創歷史新高，在機構重新配置的推動下，創下自2020年以來最佳單週表現
• 美元指數自2022年4月以來首次跌破關鍵的100點位，顯示全球資本流動可能出現根本性轉變
• 本週重點清單強調通過黃金、國債空頭、原油空頭、波克夏海瑟威及其他優質防禦性價值股的防禦性配置

重點清單亮點

儘管週五上漲，美國市場的技術面仍大致呈現負面走勢。所有主要指數在多個時間框架中均顯示持續疲弱，防禦性行業如必需消費品和公用事業相對強勢，表明機構定位更傾向於資本保全而非成長優化。債券市場惡化促使我們從持有長期國債轉向短期國債債券，因為認識到政府債券的傳統避險功能在當前環境中運作不如預期。這與我們先前的立場相比，發生了顯著變化，反映了快速發展的市場動態。

黃金

黃金的市場結構已顯著增強，多個時間框架中呈現卓越的動能。突破每盎司3,200美元以上創歷史新高，確認了這一趨勢的強勢，季度和年度期間均顯示正面表現。

黃金表現在季度時間框架內的變化率極為非凡，表明其上升趨勢顯著加速。這種加速動能的模式通常表明機構定位的重大轉變，而非短期戰術性移動。創紀錄價格與強勁交易量的結合，印證了這一走勢的重要性。

當前市場結構表明，隨著全球資本尋求傳統美國資產的替代品，其將繼續保持強勢。由於通膨擔憂持續存在，且對美國資產的信心減弱，黃金卓越的動能似乎得到了超越典型避險需求的基本因素支持。

長期利率對沖

長期國債是所有資產類別中最令人擔憂的市場模式之一。當前趨勢顯示所有時間框架內持續疲弱，日線和週線表現尤為惡化。

變化率確認了跨多個時間框架的負面動能加速。30年期國債殖利率經歷了自2020年以來最大的三日攀升，上漲近40個基點，在固定收益市場造成廣泛性的錯亂。

這種惡化發生在美國債務全球需求動態變化的背景下。多個時間框架內負面趨勢的持續性表明，這不僅僅是短期波動，而可能是國債市場更重大的風險重新定價。

原油對沖

能源商品在部署對沖時表現出特別引人注目的結構。原油當前趨勢顯示所有時間框架內一致疲弱，過去一季度表現尤為不佳。

變化率揭示了月度和季度期間加速疲弱的令人擔憂模式。儘管地緣政治緊張局勢通常會支撐能源價格，但這種惡化持續存在，顯示基本需求疲軟。

市場結構顯示明確的阻力，每次嘗試反彈都遇到賣壓。由於經濟指標顯示全球成長放緩和貿易緊張局勢可能導致需求被破壞，儘管週五能源價格小幅上漲，但其模式似乎特別脆弱。

波克夏·海瑟威公司

波克夏·海瑟威是主要股票中表現最強勁的公司之一，其正向表現與大多數大型公司的普遍負面模式形成強烈對比。儘管最近市場動盪，日線讀數顯示強勁，週線和月線時間框架內則顯示出穩定的模式。

變化率顯示週度和季度期間動能均有所改善。這種市場壓力下相對表現增強的模式，突顯該公司的防禦特性，以及市場在不確定時期將其視為優質持股的觀點。

這種彈性與波克夏·海瑟威的業務模式一致，包括持有大量現金、多元化業務曝險，以及相對於其他大型公司而言，較為有限的國際貿易脆弱性。隨著投資者在經濟不確定性中越來越尋求品質和穩定性，波克夏·海瑟威的市場模式顯示其持續相對強勢。

重點清單調整

我們最重大的調整是國債定位的完全逆轉，從之前因經濟衰退的壓力而青睞長期國債，轉而考慮到貿易戰緊張局勢，將國債曝險視為關鍵風險領域。這一顯著轉變反映了債券市場動態的急劇惡化，以及本週全球對美國債務工具需求的潛在結構性變化。

鑑於傳統股票對沖策略在當前市場環境中的效果降低，我們也減少了對其的重視。股票與傳統對沖工具之間不尋常的相關性模式降低了它們的保護價值，使我們傾向於通過上述資產進行更直接的防禦性定位。

展望未來

第一季財報季將於下週隨著主要金融機構的報告發布而加速來臨。這些結果不僅將作為回顧性的績效指標受到審視，還將成為在快速發展的貿易政策環境中的前瞻性指引。管理階層對於供應鏈調整、定價策略和資本配置計劃的評論，可能比實際季度數字更具分量。

債券市場行為尤其值得關注，因為股市上漲與債券價格下跌之間的異常背離表明潛在的結構性問題，而非典型的風險動態。10年期美國國債殖利率經歷了自2021年11月以來最大的單週增長，創造了不尋常的跨資產關係，可能預示全球資本流動更深刻的轉變。

我們將密切關注黃金在飆升至歷史高位後的表現，因為強勢的延續將進一步驗證脫離傳統美國資產並進行大幅重新配置的論點。當前模式顯示為機構而非散戶的累積，這通常比短期投機性定位更具持久性和趨勢持續性。

關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為美籍台灣人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

Major Market Shift Intensifies as Gold Surges and Investors Reconsider US Asset Allocations

Global Capital Flows Signal Potential Structural Change in Investment Landscape

By Joe Lu, CFA April 12, 2025

Disclaimer: This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Market Perspective

The past week has witnessed an extraordinary sequence of market events that may signal a fundamental shift in global investment patterns. While equity markets stabilized after historic volatility, with the S&P 500 posting its best weekly performance since November 2023, the cross-asset picture reveals potentially more significant structural changes underway.

Meanwhile, the bond market delivered a concerning message as Treasury yields continued their sharp ascent despite equity market gains. The 10-year Treasury yield experienced its most significant weekly spike since November 2021, while the 30-year saw its largest weekly surge since 1982. This unusual divergence between rising stocks and falling bond prices challenges traditional safe-haven dynamics and suggests potential structural changes in global capital allocation.

The most telling development has been gold's surge to record highs above $3,200 per ounce, completing its best week since 2020 with a remarkable +10.69% monthly gain. This exceptional performance amid equity market stabilization suggests something beyond typical risk-off positioning—it indicates a potential reassessment of the dollar's role in institutional portfolios. The MLIV Pulse survey reinforces this view, showing investors increasingly looking to reduce US asset exposure in favor of European and other developed markets.

The dollar index's plunge below the psychologically important 100 level, its first breach since April 2022, further supports the thesis of changing international investment preferences. Market strategists note the US's growth advantage appears to have "finally disappeared," with investors increasingly moving toward European and Asian assets.

The political dimension of the market's historical volatility has added another layer of uncertainty to an already complex investment landscape. Several senior Senate Democrats have called for an SEC investigation into potential market manipulation and insider trading related to the presidential tariff announcements and subsequent pause. The unusual market movements surrounding these policy decisions, including the president's social media post urging investors to buy stocks just hours before announcing the tariff pause, have raised governance concerns that could further impact investor confidence in US markets.

Executive Summary:

• Global markets experienced extreme volatility culminating in Friday's rebound, with S&P 500 recording best week since 2023
• Treasury bonds remained under pressure with 10-year yield seeing largest weekly spike since 2021 despite equity gains
• Gold surged to all-time high above $3,200, recording best week since 2020 amid significant institutional reallocation
• Dollar index plunged below key 100 level for first time since April 2022, signaling potential fundamental shift in global capital flows
• The focus list this week emphasizes defensive positioning through gold, Treasury bond shorts, crude oil shorts, Berkshire Hathaway, and other quality defensive value stocks.

Focus List Highlights

The technical landscape remains broadly negative across US markets despite Friday's gains. All major indices show persistent weakness across multiple timeframes, with relative strength in defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Utilities, suggesting institutional positioning toward capital preservation rather than growth optimization. The bond market deterioration has prompted our significant positioning shift from long Treasury exposure to short Treasury positioning, recognizing that the traditional safety function of government bonds is not operating as expected in the current environment. This represents a notable change from our previous stance and reflects the rapidly evolving market dynamics.

Gold

Gold's market structure has strengthened considerably, with exceptional momentum developing across multiple timeframes. The breakout to all-time highs above $3,200 confirms the strength of this trend, with positive performance evident across quarterly and annual periods.

The rate of change in gold's performance has been extraordinary over the quarterly timeframe, signaling a remarkable acceleration in its uptrend. This pattern of intensifying momentum typically indicates a major shift in institutional positioning rather than short-term tactical movement. The combination of record prices and strong volume validates the significance of this move.

The current market structure suggests continued strength as global capital seeks alternatives to traditional US assets. With inflation concerns persisting and confidence in US assets waning, gold's exceptional momentum appears well-supported by fundamental drivers beyond typical safe-haven demand.

Long Duration Interest Rate Hedges

Long-duration Treasury bonds display one of the most concerning market patterns across all asset classes. Current trends show persistent weakness across all timeframes, with particularly acute deterioration in daily and weekly performance.

The rate of change confirms accelerating negative momentum across several timeframes. The 30-year Treasury yield has experienced its largest three-day climb since 2020, rising nearly 40 basis points and creating widespread dislocations in fixed income markets.

This deterioration occurs against a backdrop of changing global demand dynamics for US debt. The persistence of negative trends across multiple timeframes suggests this is not merely a short-term fluctuation but could be potentially a more significant repricing of risk in the Treasury market.

Crude Oil Hedges

Energy commodities display a particularly compelling structure for deploying a hedge. Current trends for crude oil show consistent weakness across all timeframes, with especially poor performance over the past quarter.

The rate of change reveals a concerning pattern of accelerating weakness in monthly and quarterly periods. This deterioration persists despite geopolitical tensions that would typically support energy prices, suggesting fundamental demand weakness.

The market structure shows clear resistance levels, with each attempted rally meeting selling pressure. With economic indicators suggesting slowing global growth and potential demand destruction from trade tensions, the pattern for energy appears particularly vulnerable despite Friday's modest gain.

Berkshire Hathaway

Berkshire Hathaway presents one of the strongest profiles among major equities, with positive performance standing in stark contrast to the broadly negative patterns across most large companies. Current trends show strength in daily readings with stable patterns across weekly and monthly timeframes despite recent market turbulence.

The rate of change reveals improving momentum in weekly and quarterly periods. This pattern of strengthening relative performance during market stress highlights the company's defensive characteristics and market perception as a quality holding during uncertain periods.

The resilience aligns with Berkshire's business model, including significant cash holdings, diverse business exposure, and relatively limited international trade vulnerabilities compared to other large-cap companies. With investors increasingly seeking quality and stability amid economic uncertainty, Berkshire's market pattern suggests continued relative strength.

Focus List Adjustments

Our most significant adjustment has been the complete reversal in Treasury positioning, from previously favoring long-duration Treasuries due to recessionary pressures to now identifying Treasury exposure as a key risk area given trade war tensions. This notable shift reflects the dramatic deterioration in bond market dynamics and the potential structural change in global demand for US debt instruments this week.

We have also decreased our emphasis on traditional equity hedging strategies given their diminished effectiveness in the current market environment. The unusual correlation patterns between equities and traditional hedging vehicles has reduced their protective value, leading us to favor more direct defensive positioning through the assets highlighted above.

Looking Ahead

First-quarter earnings season accelerates next week with reports from major financial institutions. These results will be scrutinized not just for backward-looking performance metrics but for forward guidance amid the rapidly evolving trade policy landscape. Management commentary regarding supply chain adjustments, pricing strategies, and capital allocation plans will likely carry more weight than the actual quarterly numbers.

Bond market behavior deserves particular attention as the unusual divergence between rising equity markets and falling bond prices suggests potential structural issues rather than typical risk dynamics. The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced its largest weekly increase since November 2021, creating unusual cross-asset relationships that may signal more profound shifts in global capital flows.

We will closely monitor gold's behavior following its surge to all-time highs, as continuation of strength would further validate the thesis of significant reallocation away from traditional US assets. The current pattern suggests institutional rather than retail accumulation, which typically proves more durable and trend-persistent than shorter-term speculative positioning.