在我們這個時代

For release on delivery

10:00 a.m. EDT (8:00 a.m. MDT)August 28, 2026

供發佈使用美國東部夏令時間 2026 年 8 月 28 日上午 10:00（山地夏令時間上午 8:00）

Remarks by Kevin WarshChairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systemat

"Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Jackson Hole, WyomingAugust 28, 2026

演講人：凱文·華許（Kevin Warsh）聯準會理事會主席堪薩斯城聯準會主辦的經濟政策研討會“金融創新：對支付與政策的影響”懷俄明州傑克遜霍爾2026 年 8 月 28 日

Thank you. It's great to be here again and to see so many familiar faces. I've been looking forward to this weekend—what better place to mark my 100th day as Chairman?

謝謝大家。很高興能再次來到這裡，見到這麼多熟悉的面孔。我一直非常期待這個周末——還有什麼地方比這裡更適合紀念我就任聯準會主席第 100 天呢？

For the fine hospitality, everyone here is in debt to President Jeff Schmid and his colleagues at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Jeff, our thanks to you all.

對於熱情周到的款待，在座的每一位都要感謝堪薩斯城聯準會行長傑夫·施密德（Jeff Schmid）及其同事們。傑夫，感謝你們大家。

Jeff and the other planners have some recreation options lined up for later today. And I'd advise you to be very careful with your choices.

傑夫和其他策劃人員為今天晚些時候安排了一些休閒活動選項。我建議大家在選擇時務必格外謹慎。

As I learned years ago, you can take two different kinds of hikes on the trails around Jackson Hole. I can sum up my hikes with former Vice Chairman Don Kohn in two words: I survived. These steely marathon death marches revealed a side of Don I wasn't ready for.

多年前我就體會到，在傑克遜霍爾周圍的步道上徒步有兩種截然不同的風格。我與前副主席唐·科恩（Don Kohn）的徒步經歷可以用兩個字概括：倖存。那些鋼鐵般的馬拉松式“死亡行軍”展現出了唐身上我此前完全沒料到的一面。

There's another kind of hike—one I associate with Chairman Ben Bernanke, my old colleague. With Ben, it's a much more leisurely pace, an easy stroll along the wandering trails at the Rockefeller Preserve.

還有另一種徒步——這讓我想到我的老同事本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）主席。和本一起徒步節奏要悠閒得多，就像是在洛克菲勒保護區蜿蜒的小徑上輕鬆漫步。

So before setting out, do a wellness check and ask yourself: "Is this a Kohn day or a Bernanke day?"

因此，在出發之前，請先評估一下自己的身體狀況並問問自己：“今天適合科恩式的跋涉，還是伯南克式的漫步？”

The best thing about this gathering is that it helps us all clear our minds and think straight about our world and our time. For me, it feels like the right place, and the right audience, for a real engagement with the ideas that matter most.

這次聚會最棒的地方在於，它有助於我們所有人理清思緒，深入思考我們的世界和我們身處的時代。對我而言，在正確的地方、面對正確的聽眾，正適合就最核心的思想展開真正的交流與碰撞。

Innovation is the conference theme, and I believe that the public and the markets in their collective wisdom understand that innovations in the conduct of policy at the Fed will help deliver price stability alongside full employment.

“創新”是本次會議的主題，我相信公眾和市場憑藉其集體智慧心知肚明：聯準會在政策執行方式上的創新，將有助於在實現充分就業的同時確保物價穩定。

Here is a quick overview of what I'll cover in my remarks this morning. You can call it an outline... you can call it a trail map... just don't call it forward guidance.

以下是我今天上午講話的簡要概述。你可以稱之為大綱……也可以稱之為路線圖……只是千萬別把它叫作“前瞻性指引”（forward guidance）。

First, I'll touch on a few of the longer-term questions we're asking at the Fed about the latest general-purpose technology, artificial intelligence (AI), and where it might take the economy.

首先，我將談及聯準會針對最新通用技術——人工智慧（AI）所探討的若干長期問題，以及它可能引領經濟走向何方。

Then I'll reflect a bit on the practice of forward guidance and the interaction between the central bank and financial markets.

隨後，我將反思前瞻性指引的具體實踐，以及央行與金融市場之間的互動關係。

Next, I'll present some of the key principles that I believe should guide the conduct of monetary policy.

接下來，我將闡述我認為應當指導貨幣政策執行的幾項核心原則。

And, finally, I'll give you my assessment of the economy.

最後，我將向大家分享我對當前經濟形勢的評估。

Preparing for Future Policy Conjunctures

為未來的政策關口做準備

With the unchanging picture of the Tetons as our backdrop, we are here to survey an economic landscape that is anything but static.

以恆久不變的提頓山脈為背景，我們在此審視的卻是一幅絕非靜止的經濟圖景。

It wasn't so long ago in the run-up to the crisis of 2008 and over the decade that followed when economists and policymakers were speaking of secular stagnation and a global saving glut. It was a widely held view that an excess of capital would sit on the sidelines for a long, long time, because there just wouldn't be enough compelling investment opportunities. All the good stuff had been invented. So growth would be low and slow.

不久之前，在 2008 年危機爆發前夕以及隨後的十年裡，經濟學家和政策制定者們還在大談“長期停滯”（secular stagnation）和“全球儲蓄過剩”（global saving glut）。當時普遍持有的觀點是：過剩的資本將在很長一段時間內作壁上觀，因為根本沒有足夠吸引人的投資機會。所有好東西都已被發明出來了，因此經濟增長將陷入低速而遲緩的境地。

Well, times sure have changed. We've come to a hinge point in history.

然而，時代確實變了。我們已經來到了歷史的關鍵轉折點（hinge point）。

To cite the clearest example, progress in artificial intelligence—the 80-year-old name for the newest technology—has been faster even than its evangelists predicted a couple of years ago.

舉一個最明顯的例子：人工智慧——這一擁有 80 年歷史名稱的最新技術——其發展速度甚至超越了其倡導者幾年前的預測。

The potential for substantially higher growth is on the rise. Ever-expanding pools of capital are pouring into AI-related infrastructure of all sorts. A kind of hyper-Moore's law seems to be playing out. Scaling laws, too, are changing both the method and speed of innovation.

實現大幅更高增長的潛力正在上升。規模日益擴大的資金正湧入各類與 AI 相關的基礎設施中。一種“超級摩爾定律”似乎正在上演。擴展定律（Scaling laws）也正在重塑創新的方式與速度。

Capital and labor have combined to create the large language models at the heart of AI. Users buy tokens to gain access to the models. Reports put annualized token sales for the two leading labs alone at more than $100 billion—an increase of 500-plus percent from a year ago.

資本與勞動力相結合，創造了作為 AI 核心的大型語言模型。使用者購買 Token 以獲取對模型的使用權。報告顯示，僅兩家領先的實驗室其年化 Token 銷售額就已超過 1000 億美元——比一年前增長了 500% 以上。

The Fed watches all of this attentively. We recognize that AI is a new variable—potentially a new factor of production—that will have consequences for both the economy and the conduct of monetary policy. It opens some major lines of inquiry:

聯準會密切注視著這一切。我們認識到，AI 是一個新的變數——甚至可能是一種新的生產要素——它將對經濟運行和貨幣政策執行產生深遠影響。這引出了幾個重大的探究方向：

Will the application of AI cause a significant, sustained rise in productivity across the economy? And if so, when?

AI 的應用是否會導致全經濟範圍內生產率出現顯著且持續的提升？如果會，何時顯現？

Will token usage be complementary or competitive to labor? Will the next generation of AI models demand even greater capital intensity, or will the models themselves help devise a capital-light solution?

Token 的使用對勞動力是互補還是競爭關係？下一代 AI 模型是否需要更高的資本密集度，抑或模型本身會協助設計出輕資產的解決方案？

Among the other yet unknowns is the resulting market structure. It's not obvious where the returns on capital will land or on what timescale. Early on, how much of the surplus goes to owners of scarce assets—AI labs, chipmakers, energy producers, and cloud providers? Over time, how much of that value accrues to businesses and consumers? What are the broad implications for workers and for the employment side of the Fed's mandate?

另一個未解之謎是最終形成的“市場結構”。資本回報將流向何方、在何種時間尺度上體現，目前尚不明朗。在發展初期，有多少剩餘價值流向了稀缺資產的擁有者——AI 實驗室、晶片製造商、能源生產商和雲服務提供商？隨著時間的推移，又有多少價值會沉澱到企業和消費者手中？這對廣大勞動者以及聯準會使命中的就業端意味著什麼？

Likewise, we don't yet know the equilibrium price of the tokens. Might there be a heterogeneity of tokens, such that growing sums will be paid for access to the best models at the frontier? Will token prices for older models fall to the level of their marginal cost?

同樣，我們尚不清楚 Token 的均衡價格。Token 是否會出現異質化，從而促使人們為使用最前沿的模型支付越來越高昂的費用？老舊模型的 Token 價格是否會跌至其邊際成本水平？

We will be thinking through these matters with the help of a task force on productivity and jobs. My early check-ins with the leaders of that task force, and the four others, have been encouraging.

我們將借助“生產率與就業特別工作組”的力量深入思考這些問題。我與該工作組以及另外四個工作組負責人的初步溝通令人感到鼓舞。

To be clear, though, their recommendations will come later and have no bearing on decisions we make in the current policy conjuncture. But I believe that for future policy challenges, this intellectual investment today will leave us far better prepared.

不過需要說明的是，他們的建議將在稍晚提出，與我們在當前政策關口做出的決定無關。但我堅信，面對未來的政策挑戰，今天的這項智力投資將使我們準備得更加充分。

Forward Guidance and Its Stand-ins

前瞻性指引及其替代品

As our task forces go about their work, I am not waiting to introduce innovations at the Fed to make us fit for purpose. To highlight one example, I have set out to change the form and function of the Fed Chairman's so-called forward guidance. You might know about my long-time discomfort with early pronouncements of future policy decisions. I much prefer another path... and will make the case for it.

在各個工作組開展工作的同時，我並不打算推遲在聯準會推行創新以使我們更適應職責要求。舉一個突出的例子：我已著手改變聯準會主席所謂的“前瞻性指引”的形式與功能。大家可能知道，我長期以來對過早宣佈未來政策決定的做法感到不安。我更傾向於另一條路徑……並將為此陳述理由。

Transparency in communications about future policy decisions is not a virtue unto itself. Communications must be in service to the Fed's paramount responsibility: getting monetary policy right.

就未來政策決策進行溝通的透明度本身並非終極美德。溝通必須服務於聯準會的首要職責：把貨幣政策做對。

Forward guidance as a regular practice was adopted by my colleagues and me during the Global Financial Crisis. It was essential at the time, and we introduced it with much fanfare. But, as with other legacies of crises past, I believe that the practice has overstayed its welcome.

在常態下將前瞻性指引作為常規做法，是我和同事們在應對全球金融危機期間採納的。當時它必不可少，我們在推出時也大張旗鼓。但是，與以往危機遺留下來的其他慣例一樣，我認為這種做法已經弊大於利、過時太久了。

In normal times, the role of forward guidance should be limited and circumscribed. Otherwise it risks creating ambiguity in the name of clarity. Oversharing policy deliberations and overcommitting to future decisions can lead markets, businesses, and households astray. And I believe when policymakers make quasi-commitments on interest rates through the cycle, we inhibit our own freedom to make the right calls when it's time to decide.

在正常時期，前瞻性指引的作用應當受到嚴格限制和約束。否則，它極易在“清晰”的名義下製造“混亂”。過度分享政策考量細節、對未來決策做出過度承諾，會誤導市場、企業和家庭。並且我認為，當政策制定者在整個周期中對利率做出准承諾時，我們在真正需要做出決斷時便束縛了自己做出正確抉擇的自由。

To get policy right, we also need to get the relationship right between financial markets and the central bank. The Fed needs clear market signals, as unfiltered as possible... from market internals... the level and change in asset prices across sectors... the prices and trading volumes of Treasury securities... the foreign exchange value of the dollar... the cost and availability of credit... and the price of a broad set of commodities.

要制定正確的政策，我們還必須理順金融市場與央行之間的關係。聯準會需要清晰、儘可能未經濾鏡過濾的市場訊號……來自市場內在結構……跨行業資產價格的水平與變化……國債價格與交易量……美元的外匯匯率……信貸成本與可獲得性……以及廣泛大宗商品的價格。

These and other indicators should inform the Fed's near-term outlook on economic activity and inflation throughout the business cycle. They should also reveal the state of broader financial conditions and the risks and uncertainties in the financial cycle.

這些以及其他指標應當為聯準會在整個商業周期中對經濟活動和通膨的近期展望提供依據。它們還應當揭示更廣泛的金融狀況態勢以及金融周期中的風險與不確定性。

At the same time, market participants themselves should be tracking real information across the economy. They should draw their own conclusions; form their own expectations of output, employment, and inflation; and stay sharply attuned to risks.

與此同時，市場參與者自身也應當追蹤整個經濟中的真實資訊。他們應該得出自己的結論；形成自己對產出、就業和通膨的預期；並對風險保持高度敏銳。

The Fed should be humble and never naïve. The Fed plays an essential role in the economy and the markets. And our tools are powerful. We determine the path of short-term interest rates. And market participants will always try to anticipate what we will do next. But we should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade.

聯準會應當謙遜，但絕不能天真。聯準會在經濟和市場中扮演著至關重要的角色，我們的工具非常強大。我們決定著短期利率的走勢，而市場參與者總是試圖預判我們的下一步行動。但我們絕不應放任一種市場參與者主要依賴聯準會來決定下一筆交易的機制。

The economic literature has long described the distorting effects: a hall-of-mirrors problem. If markets rely materially on the Fed's guidance and the Fed relies on market prices, we are all more likely to be blinded to new developments... more likely to be caught unprepared for a turn of events... and more likely to commit errors in policymaking.

經濟學文獻早已描述過這種扭曲效應：“鏡廳效應”（hall-of-mirrors problem）。如果市場嚴重依賴聯準會的指引，而聯準會又依賴市場價格，我們大家都更容易對新動態視而不見……更容易在局勢突變時措手不及……並更容易在政策制定中犯下錯誤。

Perversely, market participants are unlikely to bear the biggest costs of the hall-of-mirrors problem. The most serious harm is likely to befall those without financial assets. If the Fed gets inflation wrong and judges the economy wrong, who gets the worst of it? Not the financial high-fliers. Hard-working Americans are the ones left to deal with inflation that is too high or jobs that suddenly appear less secure.

具有諷刺意味的是，市場參與者往往不需要承擔鏡廳效應帶來的最大代價。最嚴重的傷害往往會落到那些沒有金融資產的人身上。如果聯準會誤判了通膨、誤判了經濟，受害最深的是誰？絕不是那些金融界精英，而是辛勤工作的普通美國人，他們不得不面對過高的通膨或突然失去保障的工作。

So, if forward guidance is ill-suited to normal times, then how about the new Fed chief commits at the very least to an explicit reaction function? Surely, he should tell us his interest rate path—if, say, the data were to come in hot or cold.

那麼，如果前瞻性指引不適用於正常時期，新任聯準會主席是否至少應該承諾一個明確的“反應函數”（reaction function）？比如，當資料過熱或偏冷時，他難道不應該告訴我們其利率路徑嗎？

I wish our understanding of the economy were so precise as to provide a mechanical, tried-and-true answer—that some simple function like a Taylor rule could be rigorously relied upon. But our knowledge just doesn't extend that far—at least not yet—and the factors most relevant to the proper conduct of monetary policy change over time.

我倒希望我們對經濟的理解能精準到足以提供一個機械化、屢試不爽的答案——使得像泰勒規則（Taylor rule）這樣簡單的函數可以被嚴格依賴。但我們的認知水平遠未達到那種程度——至少目前尚未達到——而且與貨幣政策得當執行最相關的因素會隨著時間的推移而不斷改變。

Providing forecasts to illustrate the Fed's reaction function works better in theory than in practice, better in the lab than in the field. I'm not alone in noticing that forward guidance in 2021, to cite one example, might well have slowed the policy response to high inflation.

通過提供預測來展示聯準會的反應函數，在理論上比在實踐中更有效，在實驗室裡比在實戰中更行得通。舉例來說，不僅是我一個人注意到，2021 年的前瞻性指引很可能延緩了應對高通膨的政策響應速度。

In my term as Chairman, my colleagues and I will endeavor to construct more reliable models and more robust rules to guide policy decisions. We'll do this knowing that accuracy in economic forecasting is still just an aspiration. With so much changing so fast in geopolitics, global supply chains, and technology, it's wise to be modest about what we can and cannot know.

在我的主席任期內，我和同事們將努力建構更可靠的模型和更穩健的規則來指導政策決策。我們在做這些工作時深知：經濟預測的精準性目前仍然只是一種願景。隨著地緣政治、全球供應鏈和科技領域的變化如此迅速，對我們能知道什麼、不能知道什麼保持謙遜才是明智之舉。

In the same spirit, we should receive the full range of ideas on matters that may inform the Fed's monetary policy decisions. If the aim is optimal decisionmaking, we should not crowd out views on the economy.

本著同樣的原則，我們應當就可能為聯準會貨幣政策決策提供參考的各類議題傾聽廣泛意見。如果目標是實現最優決策，我們就不應排斥對經濟的多元觀點。

How, then, to chart a better path to policy? In the balance of my remarks, I will share some key principles that guide my thinking on the appropriate conduct of monetary policy... then offer my promised assessment of the economy.

那麼，如何為政策制定規劃一條更好的路徑？在接下來的講話中，我將分享指導我對適當執行貨幣政策進行思考的若干核心原則……然後給出我承諾的對經濟形勢的評估。

Key Principles

核心原則

Turning to principles...

談到原則……

First, I've noticed that, in this line of work, yesterday's news has a way of getting mistaken for what is happening right now. The challenge is to know the difference. In other words, we must interrogate reality to make sure we are not setting forward-looking policy based on stale or inaccurate data. Nor should we rely on isolated data points. Trends matter most. The Fed is a decisionmaking agency. We make choices amid uncertainty, and the data upon which we draw must be as relevant, contemporaneous, accurate, and actionable as possible.

第一，我注意到在這一行中，昨天的舊聞往往容易被誤認為是當下正在發生的事。挑戰在於如何分辨二者的差異。換言之，我們必須審視現實，確保我們不會基於過時或不精準的資料來制定具有前瞻性的政策，也不應依賴孤立的資料點。趨勢最為重要。聯準會是一個決策機構，我們在不確定性中做出抉擇，而我們所依託的資料必須儘可能相關、具有時效性、精準且具備可操作性。

Second, the Federal Reserve's actions are intended to ensure that the aggregate demand side of the economy is broadly consistent with aggregate supply. However, all we observe directly is activity. We never see, and can only infer, what's really happening on the supply side. Hence, evaluating the current and expected balance between aggregate supply and demand is imprecise.

第二，聯準會的行動旨在確保經濟的總需求側與總供給側大體保持一致。然而，我們能直接觀察到的只有經濟活動。我們從未能直接看到、只能去推斷供給側究竟在發生什麼。因此，評估總供求之間當前與預期的平衡是存在不精確性的。

Third, there should be no misunderstanding: The Fed's price-stability objective of 2 percent, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, is a firm, fixed target. Let's be equally clear about another aspect of the objective: Price stability is not self-executing, nor is inflation necessarily mean-reverting. It is the Fed's job to deliver stable prices.

第三，不應有任何誤解：以個人消費支出（PCE）物價指數衡量的聯準會 2% 物價穩定目標是一個堅定、固定的目標。讓我們對該目標的另一方面同樣保持明確認識：物價穩定不會自動實現，通膨也未必具有均值回歸的必然性。實現物價穩定是聯準會的天職。

Fourth, the Fed also bears responsibility for maximum employment. Achieving both sides of our mandate over the medium term is not an either/or proposition. I do not believe that the Fed's dual mandate works at cross-purposes. After all, high inflation itself is very harmful to economic prosperity.

第四，聯準會還承擔著充分就業的責任。在中期內實現我們雙重使命的兩端並非非此即彼的選擇。我不認為聯準會的雙重使命相互衝突。畢竟，高通膨本身對經濟繁榮就極具破壞性。

Fifth, short-term interest rates are the predominant tool to achieve the dual mandate. Unconventional policies to spur economic activity may suit genuine crises but should otherwise be used sparingly, if at all.

第五，短期利率是實現雙重使命的主要工具。刺激經濟活動的非傳統政策或許適用於真正的危機時期，但在其他情況下應當謹慎使用，甚至儘量不用。

Sixth, money matters. It's not fashionable these days, but my view is that money has something important to do with monetary policy. We should pay attention to money created by the central bank and money that comes from the banking and financial systems. It's true that financial innovations and other factors alter the mechanics that link the monetary base, the velocity of money, and the broader economy. But that is scarcely a reason to ignore the ultimate effects of money on financial conditions and prices.

第六，貨幣至關重要。這在當今雖然不太時髦，但我的觀點是：貨幣與貨幣政策有著極其重要的聯絡。我們應當密切關注央行創造的貨幣以及來自銀行和金融體系的貨幣。誠然，金融創新和其他因素改變了將基礎貨幣、貨幣流通速度與實體經濟聯絡起來的機制，但這絕不是忽視貨幣對金融狀況和物價最終影響的理由。

Finally, a quieter Fed, more purposeful in its communications, is better able to meet its objectives. And we can be held accountable for delivering on our remit—the only true test of our credibility. To borrow a line from General Chuck Yeager, "At the moment of truth, there are either reasons or results."

最後，一個更加沉靜、溝通更具目的性的聯準會，能更好地達成其目標。而且我們應當為履行職責而接受問責——這是對我們公信力唯一真正的檢驗。借用查克·耶格爾（Chuck Yeager）將軍的一句話：“在決戰時刻，擺出來的要麼是藉口，要麼是結果。”

The Economy Today

當下的經濟形勢

Now, given these principles, how do I read the economy today? What's really going on outside the window?

現在，基於上述原則，我如何看待當下的經濟？窗外究竟正在發生什麼？

You may have read in the July minutes the unanimous view of the FOMC: Labor markets were stable, and output was solid. But inflation remained too high. A good majority of my colleagues and I thought the wiser course was to await new information in the intermeeting period—especially given possible developments in supply chains, investment flows, and geopolitics—before deciding whether a change in interest rate policy was advisable. And we expressed our joint readiness to act as circumstances might require.

大家可能已經在 7 月份的會議紀要中讀到了 FOMC 的一致觀點：勞動力市場保持穩定，產出穩固，但通膨依然過高。我和絕大多數同事認為，在決定是否宜調整利率政策之前，更明智的做法是在兩次會議之間的窗口期等待新資訊的出爐——特別是考慮到供應鏈、投資流動和地緣政治方面的潛在變化。同時，我們共同表達了根據情勢需要隨時採取行動的準備。

For my part, today I am impressed by the overall performance of the economy, which appears to have strengthened. One indicator of strength is how well an economy holds up to shocks. On that score, both Main Street and Wall Street have been remarkably resilient.

就我個人而言，今天我對經濟的整體表現印象深刻，而且這種勢頭似乎有所增強。衡量經濟實力的一個指標是其抵禦衝擊的能力。在這一點上，實體經濟和華爾街都表現出了非凡的韌性。

Several observations:

以下是幾點觀察：

Business capital expenditures—the seed corn of future economic growth—are rising rapidly. The four-quarter change in investment in equipment and intangibles has been around 9 percent, its highest growth rate since 2021. More than half of the cap-ex growth this year can likely be ascribed to the buildout related to AI.

企業資本支出——未來經濟增長的“種子”——正在迅速增加。裝置和無形資產投資的四個季度同比增速約為 9%，創下 2021 年以來的最高增速。今年資本支出增長的一半以上可能歸功於與 AI 相關的建設投資。

For firms in the S&P 500, profits have grown by more than 20 percent over the past year. Profit margins are quite elevated, relative to history. Overall equity market volatility is low. We're staying keenly focused on market internals, watching performance across sectors.

標普 500 指數成分股企業的利潤在過去一年增長了 20% 以上。與歷史水平相比，利潤率處於相當高的水平。股票市場整體波動率處於低位。我們持續密切關注市場內部動態，審視各行業的表現。

Expectations for growth in both cap-ex and corporate earnings are running quite high. I will continue to watch the change in their growth rates, the second derivative. The follow-on effects on asset prices, business confidence, consumer income, and spending are equally important to gauge.

對資本支出和企業盈利的增長預期目前都處於相當高的水平。我將繼續觀察其增長率的變化（即二階導數）。對資產價格、商業信心、居民收入和支出的後續連鎖效應同樣是需要衡量的重要方面。

Credit spreads on corporate bonds and leveraged loans are near the low ends of their historical ranges, and issuance volumes in these markets have been quite strong this year. Looking beyond fixed-income markets to the banking business, in the July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, banks tell us that standards for commercial and industrial loans are on the easier end of their historical range. That helps explain the growth we've seen this year in those loans. Credit and loan markets are showing few signs of policy restraint.

企業債券和槓桿貸款的信用利差接近其歷史區間的底部，這些市場的發行量今年表現相當強勁。從固定收益市場轉向銀行業務來看，在 7 月份的《高級信貸專員銀行借貸意見調查》中，銀行告訴我們，工商業貸款的標準處於其歷史區間偏寬鬆的一端。這有助於解釋我們今年在這些貸款領域看到的增長。信貸和貸款市場幾乎沒有顯現出政策受限的跡象。

Certain sectors—like housing and agriculture—are showing strains. But, on balance, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.

某些行業——如房地產和農業——正在顯現壓力。但總體而言，我很難將廣泛的金融環境描述為具有限制性（restrictive）。

Real consumer spending has been healthy despite the shocks, increasing more than 2 percent over the past four quarters. Combining consumption with the brisk investment we've observed, private domestic final purchases (PDFP) has also risen. PDFP has increased at a pace of nearly 3 percent so far this calendar year. That's a measure that typically carries more signal than gross domestic product, and the trend here too is positive.

儘管遭遇衝擊，實際居民消費依然保持健康，過去四個季度的增幅超過 2%。將消費與我們觀察到的強勁投資相結合，國內私人最終採購（PDFP）也出現了上升。今年至今，PDFP 的增速接近 3%。該指標通常比國內生產總值（GDP）傳遞出更多有效訊號，且這裡的趨勢同樣積極。

On the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate, our country is doing well. Labor markets are quite stable. The jobless rate, at 4.1 percent, remains low by historical standards and has not changed much for a couple of years. Unemployment claims, on a four-week average—an empirically robust real-time indicator—are near their lowest level in decades.

在聯準會雙重使命的就業端，中國表現良好。勞動力市場相當穩定。4.1% 的失業率以歷史標準來看依然偏低，且近兩年來變化不大。作為經驗上穩健的即時指標，四周移動平均初請失業金人數接近數十年來的最低水平。

In my view, the relatively low turnover in today's labor market is partly a result of the significant rematching between employers and employees that happened at scale in the post-pandemic environment.

在我看來，當今勞動力市場相對較低的人員流動率，部分原因在於疫情後時期勞資雙方大規模發生並完成的重大重新匹配。

When labor supply is barely growing, monthly job gains are naturally going to run low. There are always areas of concern in the labor market—for example, among recent graduates. In general, though, people who want to work, by and large, are holding or finding jobs. They may well be concerned about possible future labor disruptions, but as of now, I believe the labor markets are consistent with full employment.

當勞動力供給幾乎沒有增長時，每月的就業崗位增量自然會處於較低水平。勞動力市場中總有一些令人擔憂的領域——例如應屆畢業生群體。但總體而言，想工作的人絕大多數都保住了工作或找到了工作。他們可能確實會擔憂未來潛在的用工受擾，但就目前而言，我認為勞動力市場與充分就業是一致的。

But on the price-stability side of our mandate, the numbers are more concerning. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the 12-month change in the PCE price index, stands at 3.7 percent, while the six-month change is 4.1 percent. The comparable measures from the consumer price index (CPI) are also elevated, as are the core measures of both PCE and CPI inflation. None of these measures are perfect, but they all tell a similar story: Inflation is running above our 2 percent target. So the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices.

但在我們使命的物價穩定端，資料更令人擔憂。聯準會首選的通膨指標——PCE 物價指數的 12 個月變化率為 3.7%，而 6 個月變化率則為 4.1%。消費者價格指數（CPI）的相應指標同樣高企，PCE 和 CPI 的核心通膨指標亦是如此。這些指標雖然都非完美無缺，但它們傳達出相似的訊號：通膨依然高於我們 2% 的目標。因此，聯準會目前的首要焦點應當放在物價上。

The job for policymakers is to capture underlying trend inflation—that is, the generalized change in prices in the economy, unaffected by idiosyncratic factors. We want to gauge whether underlying inflation is rising, falling, or stuck in place. We also want to understand not just the direction of travel, but also the speed. Each of these broad inflation measures has fallen significantly from their 2022 heights. But progress over the past two years has been modest.

政策制定者的任務是把握“潛在趨勢通膨”——即不受特殊偶然因素影響的、經濟中普遍的價格變動。我們希望評估潛在通膨是在上升、下降還是停滯不前。我們不僅想瞭解其演進方向，還想瞭解其變動速度。儘管這些廣泛的通膨指標相比 2022 年的高點已顯著下降，但過去兩年的進展卻十分有限。

And while this summer's PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.

雖然今年夏天的 PCE 和 CPI 讀數好於預期，但它們並未告訴我潛在趨勢已出現實質性改善。

The data also show moderate wage growth. But in tracking underlying inflation, wage growth has not proven a reliable indicator of future inflation for a very long time.

資料還顯示工資增長溫和。但在追蹤潛在通膨方面，長期以來的經驗證明，工資增長並非預測未來通膨的可靠指標。

To try to gauge underlying inflation, I find it instructive to disaggregate the 199 individual components of the PCE price measure. Over the past 12 months, 54 percent of goods and services in the PCE basket showed price increases above 3 percent. This is well below the post-pandemic highs of about 77 percent, but it remains well above the level of 32 percent in the two decades that preceded the pandemic.

為了嘗試衡量潛在通膨，我認為將 PCE 物價指標的 199 個細分組成部分進行拆解極具啟發性。在過去 12 個月中，PCE 籃子中 54% 的商品和服務價格漲幅超過 3%。這雖遠低於疫情後約 77% 的峰值，但仍顯著高於疫情前二十年間 32% 的平均水平。

Looking over just the past six months, the conclusion is similar: Of goods and services in the PCE basket, 49 percent showed annualized price increases above 3 percent. Again, this is well below the post-pandemic highs but still quite elevated.

僅觀察過去 6 個月，結論也是類似的：在 PCE 籃子中的商品和服務中，有 49% 呈現出超過 3% 的年化價格漲幅。同樣，這雖遠低於疫情後的峰值，但仍處於相當高的水平。

The recent rise in overall commodity prices also bears watching. What we need to judge is whether trends indicate upside inflation risks.

近期大宗商品整體價格的上漲同樣值得關注。我們需要研判的是，這些趨勢是否預示著通膨面臨上行風險。

It matters, too, whether the inflation readings of the past five-plus years have seeped into expectations. The good news is that measures of inflation expectations in the medium term, by and large, look stable. And inflation compensation measures from the swaps market send a strong and similar message.

過去五年多的通膨讀數是否已經滲透到公眾預期中，這一點同樣重要。好消息是，中期通膨預期的各項指標大體保持穩定，掉期市場的通膨補償指標也傳遞出強烈且一致的訊號。

Especially in light of recent developments, it is a credit to the Fed as an institution and consistent with the best of the Fed's traditions that market prices show confidence that we will deliver price stability. And I can assure you... they're right.

特別是鑑於近期的事態發展，市場價格展現出對我們將實現物價穩定的信心，這是聯準會作為一家機構的聲譽體現，也符合聯準會最優秀的傳統。我可以向大家保證……市場的判斷是正確的。

The thing about market measures of inflation expectations in economic history is that they tend to look strong and durable until they don't. Those expectations are not pushed around easily, and right now they are well anchored. But they must be closely minded. It's the Fed's job to make sure that inflation expectations do not get unanchored.

縱觀經濟歷史，基於市場的通膨預期指標的特點在於：在崩潰之前，它們往往看起來堅不可摧。這些預期不會輕易動搖，目前也錨定得很好。但必須嚴密防範。確保通膨預期不發生脫錨是聯準會的職責所在。

There is one signal nobody can miss: The responsibility for 65 months of sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank. And that is where it belongs.

有一個訊號任何人都不容忽視：持續 65 個月居高不下的通膨責任，完全在中央銀行。這份責任理應由央行承擔。

Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do. That's our job... our mandate... and our charge to keep.

這是我的標準：我們必須確信潛在通膨正明確且以足夠的速度向我們的目標邁進。否則，我們就還有工作要做。這是我們的工作……我們的使命……以及我們必須堅守的職責。

Conclusion

結語

I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision.

我今天站在這裡，承諾的是堅守原則紀律，而非提前做出某項具體決定。

My Fed colleagues and I are hardly the first to hold these positions in a time of great consequence. We are determined to redeem the time by doing our very best work.

我和我的聯準會同事們絕非首批在重大歷史關頭承擔這些重任的人。我們決心全力以赴做好工作，不負時代所托。

We take our responsibility seriously, with humility and with resolve. So much depends on choices we make. Sound monetary policy helps households and businesses to prosper. When carried out effectively, it broadens and deepens the momentum of our economy and helps to secure America's leadership in the world. And I know that our country needs us to think carefully and act wisely. Wisburg

我們以謙遜和堅定的態度嚴肅對待我們的職責。太多的事情取決於我們所做的抉擇。穩健的貨幣政策有助於家庭和企業繁榮發展。如果執行得當，它能拓展並深化我們經濟的發展勢頭，並有助於捍衛美國在世界上的領導地位。我知道，我們的國家需要我們深思熟慮、明智行事。

It is a tremendous honor to serve once again at the Federal Reserve. I am truly grateful for the encouragement and good counsel I've received from my colleagues... and from so many of you in this room. For that, and for your kind attention this morning, I thank you.

能夠再次在聯準會任職是一項莫大的榮譽。我由衷感謝從同事們……以及在座各位中獲得的鼓勵與良策。為此，也感謝大家今天上午的悉心聆聽，謝謝大家。(智堡Mikko)

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