地緣政治摩擦緩解，帶動市場反彈，然而通膨數據升溫攪亂利率前景
Joe 盧, CFA 2025年6月27日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 隨著貿易緊張局勢緩解，帶動漲勢擴大，美國主要指數創下新高，儘管半導體領域的停滯值得警惕。
- 美國頂尖企業的領導地位正在收窄，強勢集中在軟體領域，而半導體和硬體領域的指標股則表現落後。
- 隨著消費者訊號轉弱與通膨數據走強的衝突，經濟前景日益複雜，為美國聯準會帶來挑戰。
- 一場明確的順週期轉動正在工業和金融類股中進行，儘管能源類股趨勢的急劇逆轉顯示出顯著的不一致性。
- 隨著貿易樂觀情緒蔓延，國際市場已加入此波漲勢，日本在此全球同步上揚的趨勢中，正崛起為潛在的領導者。
- 投資者拋售黃金和政府公債，顯示明顯的風險偏好轉向，但上升的公債殖利率可能對此波股市反彈的核心假設構成挑戰。
市場概覽
在貿易緊張局勢緩解、強勁的企業獲利以及對未來降息的持續預期等強大組合的推動下，股市飆升至歷史新高。標普500指數本週上漲，進一步創歷史高位，並鞏固了自今年稍早低點以來的顯著復甦。儘管美國因數位服務稅問題終止與加拿大的貿易談判消息引發了一些盤中波動，但市場潛在的正面動能證明具有韌性，迅速消化了此一頭條新聞，並將焦點轉回更廣泛、更具建設性的全球格局。
貿易相關的論述已成為市場的重大利多。在美中確認達成一項新協議，以加速稀土出口換取美國撤回某些反制措施後，不確定性已顯著緩解。此外，白宮淡化了即將到來的7月9日關稅最後期限的重要性，釋放出彈性並稱其「不關鍵」。此種言論，加上商務部長盧特尼克(Lutnick)宣布另有十項貿易協議已準備好進入最後敲定階段，以及撤回一項具爭議的「報復性稅收」，使投資者得以重新聚焦於仍然強韌的經濟基本面。
然而，此樂觀情緒正受到複雜經濟背景的考驗。美國聯準會偏好的通膨指標——核心個人消費支出(PCE)——5月份數據略高於預期，年增率微升至2.7%。此一上升，加上聯準會近期上修其2025年通膨預測，使得立即降息的理由更趨複雜。儘管目前的通膨率仍接近四年來的低點，但與關稅相關的物價上漲潛在風險依然存在。隨著市場的注意力現轉向下一週關鍵的就業報告，聯準會面臨著在通膨風險與消費者潛在轉弱的跡象之間取得平衡的艱鉅任務。
整體市場指數
股市漲勢正在擴大，這是一個由貿易緊張局勢緩解所驅動的建設性訊號，提振了超越大型股的市場信心。這在羅素2000指數中表現最為明顯，其潛在趨勢在過去一週從非常負面逆轉為正向。儘管標普500指數(+0.50%)和道瓊工業平均指數(+0.94%)創下歷史新高，證實了市場的強勢，但費城半導體指數卻帶來了一絲警示。此關鍵週期性指標的趨勢已停滯於中性區域，引發了此一經濟動能的喪失是否可能挑戰市場新高的疑問。
美國十大企業
大型股之間的領導地位正在收窄，創造了一個更具選擇性的市場環境。此波漲勢由少數幾家領導者如Meta (Meta Platforms)(+1.04%)和微軟(Microsoft)(-0.30%)所帶動，其強勁的正向趨勢持續存在。Alphabet(+2.88%)亦出現初步復甦跡象，其趨勢已從負面改善至中性。這與輝達(NVIDIA)(+1.76%)等半導體相關個股動能停滯以及蘋果(Apple)(+0.04%)持續的潛在疲軟形成鮮明對比。此種分歧引發了一個關鍵問題：由如此狹隘的一群公司所領導的漲勢，長期而言是否可持續？
美國總體經濟
近期數據為美國聯準會和市場呈現了一個矛盾的論述。高於預期的通膨報告已使長期資產的前景惡化，強化了通膨的負面趨勢訊號。與此同時，對消費者信心的看法亦有所惡化，而個人支出的意外下滑進一步加劇了此變化。這使得聯準會陷入在對抗上升的物價壓力與支持潛在轉弱的消費者之間的困境，造成了顯著的不確定性。現在的主要問題是：這兩種相反的力量中，哪一種將最終主導貨幣政策和市場的未來走向？
產業類股總覽
在貿易緊張局勢緩解的樂觀情緒推動下，一場明確的順週期轉動正在進行中。這在工業類股(+1.00%)、通訊服務類股(+1.17%)和金融類股(+0.29%)日益增強的正向趨勢中顯而易見。然而，此種風險偏好情緒並非普遍存在。能源類股(-0.52%)是個顯著的例外，隨著原油價格暴跌，其趨勢在過去一週已從正向逆轉為負面。此一主要週期性類股的疲軟引發了一個重要問題：這究竟是該類股特定的問題，還是預示著廣泛的經濟樂觀情緒可能為時過早的早期警訊？
國際市場
美國貿易摩擦的緩解引發了全球同步反彈，歐盟和日本的趨勢評估均明確轉為正向。日本(+1.77%)加速的動能尤其值得注意，使其成為潛在的區域領導者。此協調一致的上揚顯示全球性的風險偏好轉向正在形成。主要的例外是中國(-0.65%)，當日表現落後。投資者現在必須評估，中國的疲軟是暫時的盤整，還是對近期貿易解決方案持更深層懷疑的跡象，後者可能對其他新興市場的動能構成挑戰。
其他資產
隨著投資者拋售傳統的避險資產，市場的風險偏好情緒清晰可見。由於系統性風險的擔憂消退，黃金(-1.81%)大幅下挫。關鍵的是，政府公債亦下跌，7-10年期美國公債(-0.26%)的價格因應高於預期的通膨數據而下跌。這對股市構成了潛在的衝突。儘管股市正在慶祝經濟的強勢，但債券市場卻發出訊號，指出此種強勢伴隨著通膨壓力，可能挑戰作為此波漲勢關鍵支柱的「利率長期維持較低」的假設。
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
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Record Highs on Trade Hope, But Inflation Signal Creates Market Tension
Markets rally on easing geopolitical friction, yet hotter inflation data complicates the path for interest rates.
By Joe 盧, CFA As of June 27, 2025
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Major U.S. indexes hit new records as easing trade tensions fuel a broadening rally, though a pause in the semiconductor space warrants caution.
- Leadership among top U.S. companies is narrowing, with strength concentrated in software while bellwethers in semiconductors and hardware lag.
- The economic picture is growing more complex as weakening consumer signals clash with firming inflation data, creating a challenge for the Federal Reserve.
- A decisive pro-cyclical rotation into Industrials and Financials is underway, though a sharp trend reversal in the Energy sector signals a notable inconsistency.
- International markets have joined the rally as trade optimism spreads, with Japan emerging as a potential leader in a synchronized global upswing.
- A clear risk-on shift was evident as investors sold both Gold and government bonds, but rising bond yields could challenge the equity rally's core assumptions.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Equity markets surged to new record highs, driven by a powerful combination of easing trade tensions, strong corporate earnings, and persistent expectations for future interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 advanced for the week, pushing further into record territory and cementing a remarkable recovery from the lows seen earlier this year. While news that the U.S. was terminating trade talks with Canada over a digital services tax introduced some intraday volatility, the market’s underlying positive momentum proved resilient, quickly absorbing the headline and shifting focus back to the broader, more constructive global picture.
The narrative on trade has become a significant tailwind for markets. Uncertainty has eased considerably following confirmations of a new U.S.-China agreement to accelerate rare-earth exports in exchange for the U.S. rolling back certain countermeasures. Furthermore, the White House has downplayed the significance of the upcoming July 9 tariff deadline, signaling flexibility and calling it "not critical." This rhetoric, combined with Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s announcement that ten additional trade deals are ready for finalization and the withdrawal of a controversial "revenge tax," has allowed investors to refocus on still-resilient economic fundamentals.
This optimism, however, is being tested by a complex economic backdrop. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, came in slightly hotter than anticipated for May, with the annual rate ticking up to 2.7%. This rise, coupled with the Fed's recent upward revision to its 2025 inflation forecast, complicates the case for an imminent rate cut. While current inflation rates remain near four-year lows, the potential for tariff-related price hikes looms. With the market's attention now shifting to next week's crucial jobs report, the Fed faces the delicate task of balancing inflation risks against signs of a potentially weakening consumer.
BROAD INDICES
The equity rally is broadening, a constructive signal driven by easing trade tensions that are boosting confidence beyond just mega-caps. This is most evident in the Russell 2000 Index, which saw its underlying trend reverse from strongly negative to positive over the past week. While the S&P 500 (+0.50%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.94%) hitting new record highs confirms the market's strength, a note of caution comes from the PHLX Semiconductor Index. The trend for this key cyclical barometer has stalled in neutral territory, raising the question of whether this loss of economic momentum could challenge the market's new highs.
TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIES
Leadership among mega-cap stocks is narrowing, creating a more selective market environment. The advance is being powered by a small group of leaders like Meta Platforms (+1.04%) and Microsoft (-0.30%), whose strong positive trends persist. A nascent recovery is also visible in Alphabet (+2.88%), where the trend has improved from negative to neutral. This contrasts sharply with the stalled momentum in semiconductor-related names like NVIDIA (+1.76%) and the persistent underlying weakness in Apple (+0.04%). This divergence raises a critical question: is a rally led by such a narrow group of companies sustainable over the long term?
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Recent data presents a conflicting narrative for the Federal Reserve and the market. A hotter-than-expected inflation report has soured the outlook for longer-duration assets, reinforcing a negative trend signal for inflation. Simultaneously, the view on consumer strength has deteriorated, a shift supported by a surprising drop in personal spending. This leaves the Fed caught between fighting rising price pressures and supporting a potentially weakening consumer, creating significant uncertainty. The primary question now is which of these opposing forces will ultimately dictate monetary policy and the market’s future direction.
SECTOR OVERVIEW
A decisive pro-cyclical rotation is underway, fueled by optimism over easing trade tensions. This is evident in the strengthening positive trends for Industrials (+1.00%), Communication Services (+1.17%), and Financials (+0.29%). However, this risk-on sentiment is not universal. The Energy sector (-0.52%) stands out as a key exception, with its trend having reversed from positive to negative over the past week amid plunging crude oil prices. This weakness within a major cyclical sector raises an important question: is it a sector-specific issue, or an early warning that the broad economic optimism may be premature?
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Easing U.S. trade frictions have triggered a synchronized global rally, with trend assessments for both the European Union and Japan turning decisively positive. The accelerating momentum in Japan (+1.77%) is particularly noteworthy, positioning it as a potential regional leader. This coordinated upswing suggests a global risk-on shift is taking hold. The primary outlier was China (-0.65%), which lagged on the day. Investors must now assess whether China's weakness is a temporary consolidation or a sign of deeper skepticism about recent trade resolutions, which could challenge momentum across other emerging markets.
OTHER ASSETS
The market’s risk-on appetite was clearly visible as investors shed traditional safe havens. Gold (-1.81%) sold off sharply as fears of systemic risk receded. Critically, government bonds also fell, with prices for 7-10 Year Treasuries (-0.26%) declining in response to hotter-than-expected inflation data. This presents a potential conflict for equities. While the stock market is celebrating economic strength, the bond market is signaling that this strength comes with inflationary pressures that could challenge the "lower rates for longer" assumption that has been a crucial pillar of this rally.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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