2025年10月，黃金熱度飆升，被大量機構資金不斷買入，價格一度突破4200美元/盎司，創下歷史新高，吸引了所有人的目光。與此同時，白銀的價格也經歷了上漲又跌落的波動。可以說，貴金屬市場熱鬧非凡。
但是在這些熱鬧背後，銅價在悄悄發力，從二季度的8800美元/噸，反彈至1萬美元/噸以上，創16個月新高。
大家之所以不把目光聚焦在銅上，很大原因是銅的產量在過去階段已經過剩。根據世界金屬統計局資料，2025年1-9月，全球銅市供應過剩2.68萬噸。國際銅業研究組織預測，2025年全球銅市將出現27.5萬噸的供應過剩。但長期來看，隨著過剩量持續縮小的趨勢，到2026年可能出現供需反轉！
小編認為，雖然當前全球銅市場呈現出銅礦短缺、精煉銅過剩的局面，但這是暫時的，長期結構性缺口會成為趨勢。因為這眾多工業金屬中，銅在全球能源轉型和科技革命中將發揮不可替代的戰略作用。從長期投資佈局的角度來看，現階段找機會埋線或將是個機遇。
In October 2025, gold fever soared, with massive institutional capital pouring in. Its price once surged past $4,200 per ounce, hitting a record high and capturing everyone’s attention. Meanwhile, silver prices also fluctuated, rising first and then falling. It’s fair to say the precious metals market was in a frenzy. Beneath this buzz, however, copper prices were quietly gaining momentum—rebounding from $8,800 per ton in Q2 to over $10,000 per ton, a 16-month high.
The main reason copper failed to grab the spotlight is the overcapacity in copper production in the recent period. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, the global copper market saw a surplus of 26,800 tons from January to September 2025. The International Copper Study Group predicts this surplus will reach 275,000 tons for the full year 2025. Yet in the long run, as the surplus keeps shrinking, a supply-demand reversal may occur by 2026!
In the author’s view, though the current global copper market faces a shortage of copper ore but a surplus of refined copper, this is temporary. A long-term structural gap will become the trend. Among numerous industrial metals, copper plays an irreplaceable strategic role in the global energy transition and technological revolution. From the perspective of long-term investment layout, seeking opportunities to take a position at this stage may be a good chance.
銅在人工智慧、能源轉型和國防安全等方面都有著戰略地位。從行業周期來看，未來是人工智慧全面襲來的時代，核心競爭力在於“算力”的爭奪，從企業間競爭到國家間掰腕子，誰能掌握算力資源，誰就將掌握話語權。而在算力戰場上，銅是不可或缺的原材料。
在實際使用中，單台AI伺服器用銅量約15kg，是傳統伺服器的3倍。資料顯示，2025年全球AI伺服器出貨量將突破250萬台，疊加算力密度提升和散熱需求增加，全球AI伺服器年用銅量將從3萬噸增加到22.5萬噸，僅3年間就增長了6倍。
而當前最吸睛的人形機器人領域，更是銅需求的新黑洞。像特斯拉Optimus高端機型的單台用銅量就突破了12公斤。根據預測，2030年該領域需求將飆升到42萬噸，相對於2025年增長約5倍。
從能源轉型過程來看，清潔能源領域的需求將爆發式增長。每輛新能源電動車的用銅量約80kg，是傳統燃油車的5倍。資料顯示，2025年全球電動車銷量預計突破4000萬輛，將帶動銅需求超300萬噸。與此同時，太陽能領域每GW裝機需要500噸銅，風電則需要600噸。經預計，2025年全球新增太陽能與風電裝機合計將拉動銅需求超340萬噸。
在電網升級方面，歐美市場需求非常旺盛。歐洲電網平均年齡達到了45-50年，北美電網也運行了40年左右，許多裝置早已超過設計壽命，急需更新換代。高盛預測到2030年，類似的電網和電力基礎設施需求將貢獻全球60%的銅需求增長，增量相當於一個美國的年消費量。
Copper plays a strategic role in artificial intelligence (AI), energy transition, and national defense security. From an industry cycle perspective, the future will be an era of widespread AI adoption, where core competitiveness lies in the race for "computing power"—from competition between enterprises to rivalry among countries. Whoever controls computing power resources will hold the right to speak, and copper is an indispensable raw material in this computing power battle.
In practice, a single AI server uses about 15kg of copper, three times that of a traditional server. Data shows that global AI server shipments will exceed 2.5 million units in 2025. Combined with the increase in computing power density and heat dissipation needs, the annual copper consumption for global AI servers will rise from 30,000 tons to 225,000 tons, a sixfold growth in just three years.
The current most eye-catching humanoid robot sector has become a new "black hole" for copper demand. For example, the high-end model of Tesla Optimus uses over 12kg of copper per unit. It is predicted that demand in this sector will surge to 420,000 tons by 2030, about five times that of 2025.
In terms of energy transition, copper demand in the clean energy sector will see explosive growth. An new energy vehicle (NEV) uses about 80kg of copper, five times that of a traditional fuel vehicle. Data shows that global NEV sales are expected to exceed 40 million units in 2025, driving copper demand to over 3 million tons. Meanwhile, 1GW of photovoltaic (PV) installations requires 500 tons of copper, and 1GW of wind power installations needs 600 tons. It is estimated that the total new PV and wind power installations worldwide in 2025 will drive copper demand to over 3.4 million tons.
In terms of power grid upgrades, demand in the European and American markets is very strong. Europe’s power grids have an average age of 45-50 years, and North America’s power grids have been in operation for about 40 years. Many devices have long exceeded their design life and are in urgent need of replacement. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, demand from such power grids and power infrastructure will contribute 60% of global copper demand growth, with the increment equivalent to the annual copper consumption of the United States.
到2026年以後，銅供應方面的長期缺口趨勢將越來越顯著。國際能源署在《2025年全球關鍵礦產展望》中作出預估，2030年全球銅需求將突破3100萬噸，而2035年銅供應缺口將達到30%，“淨零排放情景”中的缺口更將超過40%。
從資源供給看，2025年以來銅礦事故頻發加劇了供應緊張的情況。當前，全球核心銅礦主要集中在智利、秘魯等南美國家。但是今年，印尼Grasberg礦山受泥石流影響，四季度減產了20萬金屬噸，到2026年將減產近27萬噸。智利埃爾特尼恩特礦因為地震原因，產量也縮減30萬噸。剛果（金）卡莫阿-卡庫拉銅礦因電力供應不穩，產量下滑6.5%。
更嚴峻的是，一座新銅礦從發現到投產平均需要23-24年，過程漫長。而過去十年裡，整個行業資本開支援續萎縮。同時，全球主要銅礦品位（即礦石中銅金屬的有用成分的質量佔總礦石質量的百分比）在持續下降，智利部分礦區已從1%驟降至0.5%，開採成本顯著上升。
因此，未來供需反轉趨勢明確，缺口將不斷拉大。如果要補足缺口，全球就需要在2030年前新建61座銅礦，但大多數項目的開發周期漫長，再加上勘探投資長期低迷，供應的缺口很難填補。
From 2026 onward, copper’s long-term supply gap will become increasingly pronounced. The IEA, in its 2025 Global Critical Minerals Outlook, projects global copper demand will exceed 31 million tons by 2030, with a 30% supply gap by 2035—surpassing 40% under the "net-zero emission scenario".
On the supply side, frequent copper mine accidents since 2025 have tightened supplies. Most key global copper mines are in South American countries like Chile and Peru, but disruptions hit hard this year: Indonesia’s Grasberg mine cut output by 200,000 metal tons in Q4 (nearly 270,000 tons in 2026) due to mudslides; Chile’s El Teniente mine reduced output by 300,000 tons after an earthquake; and DR Congo’s Kamoa-Kakula mine saw a 6.5% output drop from unstable power.
Worse still, a new copper mine takes 23-24 years on average from discovery to production, and industry capital expenditure has shrunk for a decade. Meanwhile, global key copper ore grades (percentage of copper in ore) keep falling—some Chilean mines dropped sharply from 1% to 0.5%—pushing mining costs up significantly.
Thus, the supply-demand reversal is clear, and the gap will widen. To fill it, 61 new copper mines need to be built globally by 2030. But most projects have long development cycles, and with prolonged low exploration investment, closing the supply gap will be extremely hard.
銅價的未來趨勢可能會呈現出長期上漲、短期波動共存的特徵。
從短期來看，受到聯準會政策、地緣政治等影響，可能在一定區間內震盪，面臨高位技術性調整。10月以來，銅價波動劇烈，像滬銅期貨主力合約在10月9日夜盤觸及88090元/噸的高點後，到10月10日最低下探到82700元/噸。下方支撐位處在83000至85000元/噸的區間。
但是長期來看，因供需缺口擴大，具備持續上漲的動力。結合以上供需缺口內容的分析，再加上政策托底效應，將支撐銅價上行。經預計，到2026年，銅價將進入10000-11000美元/噸的新交易區間。
小編認為這是值得投資者長線投資的選擇，所以作此推薦。但短期波動劇烈，特別是期貨的風險較大，建議謹慎出手，選擇風險較小的品類。
Copper prices are likely to rise long-term while fluctuating short-term. In the short run, affected by Fed policies and geopolitics, prices may fluctuate within a range and face technical adjustments at high levels. Since October, volatility has been sharp: Shanghai copper’s main futures hit a high of 88,090 yuan/ton on the night of October 9, then dropped to a low of 82,700 yuan/ton on October 10, with support between 83,000-85,000 yuan/ton.
Long-term, however, expanding supply-demand gaps will drive sustained gains. Combined with the above analysis on gaps and policy support, copper prices will be underpinned upward. It is estimated that by 2026, copper will enter a new trading range of $10,000-$11,000/ton.
The author deems copper a worthy long-term investment and recommends it. Yet short-term volatility is intense—futures, in particular, carry high risks. Prudent action is advised, with preference for lower-risk categories. (無界社Economic Views)