一份溫和的消費者物價指數(CPI)報告，幾乎確保了聯準會的降息，為台灣科技產業重啟上升趨勢提供了強勁的順風。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月24日 美東時間
摘要
- 在通膨數據低於預期後，美國股價指數飆升至歷史新高，強化了市場對聯準會即將降息的押注。
- 科技股引領基礎廣泛的漲勢，英特爾(Intel)亮眼的財報激勵股價飆升超過7%，並提振了整體半導體產業的市場情緒。
- 在股市強勁的風險偏好走勢抵銷了鴿派的通膨訊號下，十年期公債殖利率持穩於4.00%。
- 九月份消費者物價指數年增3.0%，此一低於預期的讀數，為聯準會下週放寬政策清除了障礙。
- 美國股市焦點已明確從地緣政治風險，轉向國內通膨與貨幣政策，並消化了近期對俄羅斯制裁的影響。
市場迎來了其所期盼的決定性催化劑，一份低於預期的美國通膨報告，在所有主要指數間釋放了一股強勁且創紀錄的漲勢。九月份消費者物價指數(CPI) 3.0%的讀數，低於市場普遍預測，有效地移除了聯準會下週會議降息的最後一個顯著障礙。此一鴿派政策路徑的確認，引發了風險偏好的廣泛飆升，將標普500指數、道瓊工業平均指數及那斯達克綜合指數推升至歷史收盤新高。此一漲勢更受到穩固的經濟基本面支撐，採購經理人指數(PMI)最新數據顯示，第四季初服務業與製造業的擴張皆在加速。
此波漲勢明確由科技產業領軍，為台灣市場提供了格外看漲的格局。英特爾(Intel)在發布遠超預期的強勁財報後，股價飆升近6%，此訊號顯示AI基礎設施建置的效益，正擴散至少數關鍵參與者之外。此一正面發展，加上台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)的上漲，預示著台股加權指數(TAIEX)近期的創高後盤整及獲利了結賣壓可能即將結束。在經歷了一週顯著的外資法人賣超後，國內市場現在已準備好跟隨美國決定性的上漲走勢。
其他資產類別的反應，確認了此一風險偏好的轉向。原油價格在因制裁驅動的飆漲後回穩，顯示地緣政治風險溢價已被吸收。隨著股市價格創下歷史紀錄，對避險資產的立即性需求消退，黃金因獲利了結而小幅回落。在通膨問題短期內塵埃落定後，前方的路徑似乎已清晰。所有注意力將轉向美國聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)下週的會議，市場幾乎已完全消化了降息的預期。股市的主要趨勢已堅定向上，而對台灣而言，關鍵問題將是此一強勁的外部順風，是否足以驅動台股加權指數(TAIEX)果決地突破28,000點的關卡。
週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢
本摘要總結了美國和台灣資產管理規模最大的交易所買賣基金(ETF)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：美國資產規模前五大ETF(美元計價)
- Vanguard標普500指數ETF (Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
- iShares核心標普500指數ETF (Ticker: IVV): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
- SPDR標普500指數ETF信託 (Ticker: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
- Vanguard整體股市指數ETF (Ticker: VTI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
- Invesco QQQ信託系列1 (Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
美國規模最大的幾檔ETF，其正面趨勢普遍出現增強。代表標普500指數及整體股市的四檔基金指標，皆從溫和正向轉強為強勁正向。這使它們與追蹤那斯達克100指數的Invesco QQQ信託基金的趨勢一致，後者維持其既有的強勁正向趨勢。此資訊指向美國股市主要板塊的評估，已呈現更為一致且穩健的正向格局。
圖表二：台灣資產規模前五大ETF(新台幣計價)
- 元大台灣卓越50基金 (Ticker: 0050): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 元大高股息基金 (Ticker: 0056): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
- 國泰永續高股息基金 (Ticker: 00878): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 群益台灣精選高息基金 (Ticker: 00919): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 富邦台灣采吉50基金 (Ticker: 006208): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
台灣頂尖ETF中，最顯著的變化為一檔主要高股息基金的趨勢轉弱。元大高股息基金(0056)的趨勢指標從溫和正向轉為中性。相較之下，以大型股及市值為權重的ETF(0050和006208)則守住其強勁正向的趨勢。其他策略型ETF亦維持穩定，趨勢從溫和正向到強勁負向不等。這顯示市場對某一檔高股息策略的評估出現轉變，而大盤的趨勢則依然穩固。
📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。
💬透過LINE與我們聯繫，即可加入社群。
如果您覺得這份研究有價值：
👍為這篇文章按讚。
📰追蹤此部落格，獲取最新的市場動態。
➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。
本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Softer Inflation Data Ignites Record-Breaking U.S. Rally
A benign CPI report all but guarantees a Federal Reserve rate cut, providing a powerful tailwind for Taiwan's tech sector to resume its upward trend.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-10-24
Executive Summary
- U.S. stock indices surged to new all-time highs after inflation data came in below expectations, reinforcing bets on an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut.
- Technology stocks led the broad-based rally, with Intel's stellar earnings report sparking a more than 7% surge and boosting sentiment across the semiconductor sector.
- The 10-year Treasury yield held firm at 4.00% as the powerful risk-on move in equities offset the dovish inflation signal.
- The September Consumer Price Index rose 3.0% year-over-year, a cooler-than-forecast reading that clears the path for the Fed to ease policy next week.
- The market's focus shifted decisively from geopolitical risk to domestic inflation and monetary policy, absorbing the impact of recent sanctions on Russia.
The market has received the definitive catalyst it was waiting for, as a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation report unleashed a powerful, record-setting rally across all major indices. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading of 3.0% came in below consensus forecasts, effectively removing the final significant obstacle for a Federal Reserve rate cut at its meeting next week. This confirmation of a dovish policy path triggered a broad-based surge in risk appetite, sending the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite to new all-time closing highs. The move was underpinned by solid economic fundamentals, with flash PMI data showing accelerated expansion in both the services and manufacturing sectors to start the fourth quarter.
This rally was unequivocally led by the technology sector, providing a particularly bullish setup for the Taiwanese market. Intel's shares surged nearly 6% after the company delivered a powerful earnings report that far exceeded expectations, signaling that the benefits of the AI infrastructure build-out are broadening beyond a few key players. This positive development, combined with the rise in TSMC's ADR, suggests that the recent high-level consolidation and profit-taking in the Taiex is likely to conclude. After weathering a week of significant foreign institutional selling, the domestic market is now positioned to follow the decisive upward move in the U.S.
The reaction across other asset classes confirms this risk-on pivot. Crude oil prices stabilized after their sanction-driven spike, indicating the geopolitical risk premium has been absorbed. Gold eased slightly on profit-taking as the immediate demand for safe havens receded in the face of record equity prices. With the inflation question now settled for the near term, the path forward appears clear. All attention will be on next week's FOMC meeting, where a rate cut is now almost fully priced in. The primary trend for equities is firmly upward, and the key question for Taiwan will be whether this powerful external tailwind is sufficient to drive the Taiex decisively through the 28,000 level.
Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for the largest U.S. and Taiwanese exchange-traded funds by assets under management. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A broad strengthening of positive trends occurred among the largest U.S. ETFs. The indicators for the four funds representing the S&P 500 and the total stock market all improved from mildly positive to strongly positive. This aligns them with the Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 and maintained its existing strongly positive trend. This information points to a more uniform and robustly positive assessment across the major segments of the U.S. equity market.
Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)
- Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
- Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
The most significant change among Taiwan's top ETFs was a weakening in a major dividend fund. The trend indicator for the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (0056) moved from mildly positive to neutral. In contrast, the large-cap, market-weighted ETFs (0050 and 006208) held their strongly positive trends. Other strategies also remained stable, from mildly positive to strongly negative. This suggests a shift in the assessment for one dividend strategy while the broad market trend held firm.
📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content.
💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.
if you found this research valuable:
👍'Like' this post.
📰Follow this blog for new market updates.
➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.
This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）
關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》
鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。