Meta與微軟的支出擔憂，以及聯準會的鷹派立場，終結了「萬物齊漲」的行情。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月30日 美東時間
摘要
- 令人失望的大型科技股財報與聯準會的鷹派基調，引發了基礎廣泛的避險操作，美股急遽下跌。
- 在對龐大AI支出的擔憂下，Meta與微軟(Microsoft)股價暴跌，拖累那斯達克指數領跌，蓋過了Alphabet的強勁財報及美中貿易戰的休兵協議。
- 聯準會主席鮑爾對未來降息的謹慎評論，迫使市場下修對進一步貨幣寬鬆的預期，公債殖利率上揚。
- 聯準會如預期降息25個基點但暗示可能暫停，使市場焦點從央行支持轉向企業基本面。
- 美中宣布就關稅與稀土出口達成休兵協議，但此一正面的地緣政治發展，完全被財報及聯準會相關的擔憂所掩蓋。
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不分青紅皂白、由宏觀因素驅動的漲勢已經結束，取而代之的是一個更具辨別力且嚴苛的市場，正密切審視AI軍備競賽的巨大成本。週四美股的急遽拋售，正是對此一新現實的直接反應，投資者因Meta和微軟(Microsoft)暗示飆升的資本支出與謹慎的前景而懲罰其股價。這是一次經過盤算的風險重新定價；交出強勁雲端與廣告營收的Alphabet，則逆勢上漲。市場龍頭股之間此一清晰的分歧，預示著一個關鍵的轉變：僅憑AI的增長論述已不再足夠。聯準會的鷹派暫停為此一重新評估提供了催化劑，移除了未來保證寬鬆的安全網，並迫使市場回歸基本面分析。
市場對美中貿易休兵協議的完全無視，確認了此一焦點的轉變。關於中國將暫停稀土出口限制、並恢復採購黃豆，以換取美國關稅減免的消息，未能維持任何正面動能。相反地，資本逃向避險資產，隨著公債殖利率上升和美元走強，黃金飆升超過2%，重返每盎司4,000美元的關卡。此現象的驅動因素是市場意識到，儘管AI需求真實存在，但實現獲利的路徑將遠比先前預期的更為昂貴與艱鉅。
對剛結束史上最強勁單月表現的台灣市場而言，其意涵是直接且重大的。儘管台股加權指數(TAIEX)於週四觸及歷史新高，但那斯達克、輝達(Nvidia)及台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)的隔夜跌勢，為今日盤勢設定了負面基調。台灣供應鏈的長期AI論述依然完整，但美國市場對AI成本新產生的懷疑態度，將不可避免地導致台北股市加劇的波動與獲利了結賣壓。隨著亞馬遜(Amazon)和蘋果(Apple)的財報即將公布，市場面臨著關鍵的考驗。
週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢
本摘要總結了關鍵貨幣對(以新台幣計價)及主要大宗商品類股(以美元計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：貨幣(新台幣計價)
- 美元(貨幣對: USDTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 歐元(貨幣對: EURTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 日圓(貨幣對: JPYTWD): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 人民幣(貨幣對: CNYTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 加幣(貨幣對: CADTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
過去一週，兌新台幣的關鍵貨幣對趨勢指標維持穩定，未記錄到任何變化。美元、人民幣和加幣皆維持其溫和正向的趨勢。日圓持續呈現溫和負向的趨勢，而歐元則持平於中性評估。此一靜止的狀態顯示，這些主要外匯貨幣對相對於新台幣的前景維持一致。
圖表二：大宗商品(美元計價)
- 能源類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 農業類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBA): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▲
- 工業金屬(代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 貴金屬(代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 數位資產(代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
農業類大宗商品出現顯著反轉，其趨勢指標從溫和正向轉為強勁負向。貴金屬的動能亦見緩和，其評估從強勁正向緩和至溫和正向。相較之下，工業金屬守住其強勁正向的趨勢，而能源類大宗商品和數位資產則雙雙維持其溫和負向的指標。此資訊突顯了市場對農產品的評估出現轉變，而其他產業則展現了持續性。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Big Tech Earnings Fracture Market Rally
Meta and Microsoft's spending concerns trigger a U.S. sell-off as the Fed's hawkish stance ends the 'everything up' trade.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-10-30
Executive Summary
- U.S. equities fell sharply as disappointing Big Tech earnings and a hawkish Federal Reserve tone triggered a broad-based risk-off move.
- The Nasdaq led declines after Meta and Microsoft shares plunged on concerns over massive AI spending, overshadowing a strong report from Alphabet and a truce in the U.S.-China trade war.
- Treasury yields rose as Fed Chair Powell's cautious comments on future rate cuts forced markets to scale back expectations for further monetary easing.
- The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected but signaled a potential pause, shifting the market's focus from central bank support to corporate fundamentals.
- A U.S.-China truce on tariffs and rare-earth exports was announced, but this positive geopolitical development was completely eclipsed by earnings and Fed-related concerns.
The indiscriminate, macro-driven rally is over, replaced by a discerning and unforgiving market that is now intensely scrutinizing the colossal costs of the AI arms race. The sharp sell-off in U.S. stocks on Thursday was a direct reaction to this new reality, as investors punished Meta and Microsoft for signaling soaring capital expenditures and cautious outlooks. This was a calculated repricing of risk; Alphabet, which delivered strong cloud and ad revenue, bucked the trend and rose. This clear differentiation among the market's leaders signals a crucial shift: the AI growth narrative alone is no longer enough. The Federal Reserve's hawkish pause provided the catalyst for this reassessment, removing the safety net of guaranteed future easing and forcing a return to fundamental analysis.
The market's complete dismissal of the U.S.-China trade truce confirms this change in focus. News that China would pause rare-earth export curbs and resume soybean purchases in exchange for U.S. tariff relief failed to sustain any positive momentum. Instead, capital fled to safety, with gold surging over 2% to reclaim the $4,000/oz level as Treasury yields rose and the dollar strengthened. This was driven by the realization that while AI demand is real, the path to profitable returns will be far more expensive and challenging than previously priced in.
For the Taiwan market, which just closed out its strongest month in history, the implications are immediate and significant. Despite the TAIEX touching a new record high on Thursday, the overnight declines in the Nasdaq, Nvidia, and TSMC's ADR set a negative tone for today's session. The long-term AI thesis for Taiwan's supply chain remains intact, but the U.S. market's newfound skepticism about the cost of AI will inevitably lead to increased volatility and profit-taking in Taipei. With earnings from Amazon and Apple still to come, the market faces a critical test.
Thursday Asset Focus: Currency & Commodity Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key currency pairs against the TWD and for major commodity sectors in USD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)
- U.S. Dollar (FX Pair: USDTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Euro (FX Pair: EURTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Japanese Yen (FX Pair: JPYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Chinese Yuan (FX Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Canadian Dollar (FX Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
Trend indicators for key currency pairs against the TWD were stable over the past week, with no changes recorded. The U.S. Dollar, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar all maintained their mildly positive trends. The Japanese Yen continued to show a mildly negative trend, while the Euro held its neutral assessment. This lack of change suggests a consistent outlook for these major foreign exchange pairs relative to the New Taiwan Dollar.
Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)
- Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▲
- Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
A notable reversal occurred in Agricultural Commodities, with the trend indicator moving from mildly positive to strongly negative. Momentum also eased for Precious Metals, with the assessment moderating from strongly positive to mildly positive. In contrast, Industrial Metals held their strongly positive trend, while Energy Commodities and Digital Assets both maintained their mildly negative indicators. This information highlights a shift in assessment for agricultural products, while other sectors showed persistence.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。