亞馬遜與OpenAI協議助燃那斯達克與台股AI龍頭股，然美元走強及美國數據真空揭示日益增長的系統性風險。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年11月3日 美東時間
摘要
- 美國市場表現分歧，一項新的AI協議提振了那斯達克指數，道瓊指數則下跌，此現象與盤整中的台灣市場集中化格局相呼應。
- 漲勢已收窄至亞馬遜(Amazon)與輝達(Nvidia)等少數AI大型股，而工業與消費性類股則相對落後，預示著一個脆弱、頭重腳輕的市場結構。
- 隨著債券市場拋售持續，十年期公債殖利率繼續向4.1%攀升，反映了聯準會的鷹派暫停立場。
- 長期持續的美國政府關門，現已成為經濟不確定性的主要來源，不僅延遲了就業報告等關鍵數據的發布，也迫使聯準會「盲目飛行」。
- OpenAI與亞馬遜(Amazon)達成的380億美元雲端合作夥伴關係，是當日市場的關鍵催化劑，強化了AI支出論述的主導地位。
市場正透過一個危險收窄的漲勢發出警訊。由亞馬遜(Amazon)與OpenAI高達380億美元的雲端合作夥伴關係所加劇的AI狂熱情緒，正掩蓋著更廣泛經濟中顯著的潛在疲弱。當前這並非一場健康的牛市延伸；而是一場對少數幾家公認贏家的集中追逐，而市場其他部分則在鷹派聯準會、強勢美元，以及華盛頓嚴峻的政策不確定性壓力下掙扎。週一的市場表現正是此一動態的教科書式案例：那斯達克指數在亞馬遜(Amazon)和輝達(Nvidia)的強勢帶動下上漲，而道瓊工業平均指數和標普500等權重指數則雙雙下跌。
此一分歧的表現，也精準地反映在台灣市場。台股加權指數(TAIEX)正在歷史高點進行盤整，其支撐幾乎完全來自散熱、印刷電路板(PCB)和先進封裝等AI相關產業，而其他產業則幾乎沒有追價的意願。最新的台灣製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)數據，為此一雙速經濟提供了明確的佐證：該指數雖重返擴張區間，但完全是由資料中心的電力、能源和散熱設備需求所驅動。傳統製造業依然疲弱。這表明AI題材雖正產生實質的經濟影響，但並未能雨露均霑。
現在，主要的風險因素已從企業財報，轉移至美國政府關門，此舉正因延遲關鍵經濟數據的發布而造成資訊真空。聯準會基本上是在「盲目飛行」，增加了政策失誤的可能性。此一不確定性，加上台股加權指數(TAIEX)大幅偏離其季線，指向短期修正的機率很高。儘管長期的AI增長趨勢依然穩固，但市場的內部結構脆弱，盤中波動預計將會擴大。
週一資產焦點：美國股市與個股趨勢
本摘要總結了美國主要股價指數及領先企業為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：美國股價指數(美元計價)
- 道瓊工業平均指數(代表性ETF: DIA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 標普500指數(代表性ETF: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 那斯達克綜合指數(代表性ETF: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 羅素2000指數(代表性ETF: IWM): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 費城半導體指數(代表性ETF: SOXQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
美國股價指數中，主要變化為小型股趨勢的轉弱。羅素2000指數的指標從強勁正向緩和至溫和正向。這與主要的大型股及側重科技股的基準指數形成對比。道瓊工業平均指數、標普500指數、那斯達克綜合指數及費城半導體指數，皆維持其強勁正向的趨勢。此資訊指向市場對小型股的評估，相較於其大型股同業，可能出現轉變。
圖表二：美國前五大企業(美元計價)
- 輝達(NVIDIA Corp, NVDA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 蘋果(Apple Inc, AAPL): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 微軟(Microsoft Corp, MSFT): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲▲
- 亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc, AMZN): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
- 博通(Broadcom Inc, AVGO): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
美國頂尖企業的趨勢變化出現顯著分歧。微軟(Microsoft)的趨勢指標顯著轉弱，從強勁正向轉為中性。相較之下，亞馬遜(Amazon)的趨勢則從溫和正向轉強為強勁正向。其他領先的科技公司則展現穩定性，輝達(NVIDIA)、蘋果(Apple)和博通(Broadcom)皆維持其強勁正向的趨勢。這些不同的走勢突顯了市場對個別大型科技龍頭存在不同的評估。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
A Tale of Two Markets: AI Giants Soar While Broader Indices Falter Under Fed and Shutdown Pressures
Amazon-OpenAI deal propels the Nasdaq and TAIEX AI leaders, but a rising dollar and a U.S. data blackout reveal growing systemic risks.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-11-03
Executive Summary
- U.S. markets displayed a fractured performance as a new AI deal lifted the Nasdaq, while the Dow declined, mirroring a similar concentration in the consolidating Taiwan market.
- The rally has narrowed to a few AI mega-caps like Amazon and Nvidia, while industrial and consumer stocks lag, signaling a fragile, top-heavy market structure.
- The 10-year Treasury yield continued to climb towards 4.1% as the bond market sell-off persisted, reflecting the Federal Reserve's hawkish pause.
- The prolonged U.S. government shutdown is now the primary source of economic uncertainty, delaying key data like the jobs report and forcing the Fed to "fly blind."
- OpenAI's $38 billion cloud partnership with Amazon was the day's key catalyst, reinforcing the dominance of the AI spending narrative.
The market is sending a warning signal through a dangerously narrowing rally. The AI euphoria, supercharged by Amazon's $38 billion cloud partnership with OpenAI, is masking significant underlying weakness in the broader economy. This is not a healthy bull extension currently; it is a concentrated chase for a handful of perceived winners while the rest of the market struggles under the weight of a hawkish Federal Reserve, a strengthening dollar, and acute policy uncertainty from Washington. The market's performance on Monday was a textbook example of this dynamic: the Nasdaq advanced on the strength of Amazon and Nvidia, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the equal-weighted S&P 500 both fell.
This split performance is mirrored precisely in Taiwan. The TAIEX is consolidating at record highs, supported almost exclusively by AI-related sectors like cooling, PCBs, and advanced packaging, while other industries show little appetite for chasing prices. The latest Taiwan Manufacturing PMI data provides a stark confirmation of this two-speed economy: the index returned to expansionary territory, but this was driven entirely by demand for electricity, energy, and cooling equipment for data centers. Traditional manufacturing remains weak. This demonstrates that the AI theme is having a real economic impact, but it is not lifting all boats.
The primary risk factor has now shifted from earnings to the U.S. government shutdown, which is creating an information vacuum by delaying crucial economic data. The Fed is essentially "flying blind," increasing the potential for a policy error. This uncertainty, combined with the TAIEX's large deviation from its quarterly moving average, points to a high probability of a short-term correction. While the secular AI growth trend remains firmly intact, the market's internal structure is fragile and intraday volatility is set to expand.
Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Equity & Company Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for major U.S. equity indices and leading U.S. companies. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
The primary change among U.S. equity indices was a weakening in the trend for small-cap stocks. The indicator for the Russell 2000 Index moderated from strongly positive to mildly positive. This contrasts with the major large-cap and technology-focused benchmarks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and PHLX Semiconductor Index all maintained their strongly positive trends. This information points to a potential change in assessment for smaller companies relative to their large-cap peers.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)
- NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: --, Last Week: ▲▲
- Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- Broadcom Inc (Ticker: AVGO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A notable split in trend changes appeared among top U.S. companies. Microsoft saw its trend indicator weaken significantly from strongly positive to neutral. In contrast, Amazon’s trend strengthened from mildly positive to strongly positive. Other leading technology companies showed stability, with NVIDIA, Apple, and Broadcom all maintaining their strongly positive trends. These varied movements highlight different assessments for individual large-cap technology leaders.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。