聯準會政策不明朗，推升黃金、壓抑美股大盤，台股則飆上新高。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月29日 美東時間
摘要
- 聯準會降息但暗示未來可能暫停後，美股漲跌互見、波動顯著，台股則飆升至歷史新高。
- 大型科技股走勢急遽分歧，Alphabet強勁財報提振那斯達克，但Meta與微軟令人失望的財測則拖累標普500與道瓊指數。
- 聯準會主席鮑爾發表謹慎評論後，市場重新評估12月降息的機率，十年期公債殖利率上揚。
- 聯準會如預期降息25個基點，但明確表示不保證未來會進一步寬鬆。
- 市場焦點現轉向川習會，預期將討論AI晶片與台積電議題，此將對科技供應鏈產生重大影響。
市場已轉為更具辨別力，此一轉變由聯準會的「鷹派暫停」所引發。儘管聯準會週三如市場普遍預期降息25個基點，但主席鮑爾(Jerome Powell) 隨後表示12月降息「並非必然」，此說法為市場注入了顯著的不確定性。此番評論立即冷卻了投資者的熱情，導致美國指數自盤中歷史高點回落。
此一新的選擇性，在大型科技股財報公布後的表現中展露無遺。投資者明確地區分了贏家與輸家：Alphabet 因亮眼業績飆漲超過6%，而Meta在預告資本支出將大幅增加後暴跌逾7%。微軟(Microsoft) 也因謹慎的雲端業務指引而下跌超過3%。市場龍頭股表現的分歧，造成主要指數收盤漲跌互見，那斯達克指數收漲，標普500指數收平，道瓊指數則下跌。
與此同時，台灣市場持續其強勁的漲勢，台股加權指數(TAIEX)飆升至歷史收盤新高。此波漲勢受惠於勢不可擋的AI論述，並由輝達(Nvidia)的持續強勢及執行長黃仁勳的正面評論所強化。黃金重返每盎司4,000美元關卡，VIX指數上揚，確認了投資者潛在的焦慮情緒正在增加。隨著亞馬遜(Amazon)和蘋果(Apple)即將公布財報，以及川習會訂於今日舉行，市場面臨著至今最重大的考驗。
週三資產焦點：美國經濟與債券趨勢
本摘要總結了美國關鍵經濟指標和美國公債ETF為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：美國宏觀經濟
- 投資存續期間: 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
- 企業獲利: 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
- 通貨膨脹: 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 貨幣流量(流入美元): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 消費者信心: 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
消費者信心的趨勢有所改善，從溫和正向轉為強勁正向。然而，此利多被投資存續期間指標的轉弱所抵銷，該指標從溫和正向轉為中性。企業獲利亦改善至溫和正向的趨勢。通貨膨脹和貨幣流量(流入美元)的指標，則穩定於其溫和負向的讀數。此資訊指向在經濟其他部分訊號紛雜之際，消費者面的評估正轉強。
圖表二：美國公債(美元計價)
- 1-3年期美國公債(代表性ETF: SHY): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲▲
- 3-7年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEI): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 7-10年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEF): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 10-20年期美國公債(代表性ETF: TLH): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 20年期以上美國公債(代表性ETF: TLT): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
美國公債殖利率曲線的短天期與中天期部分，其正面趨勢出現了顯著的緩和。1-3年期公債的指標從強勁正向轉弱為中性。同樣地，3-7年期和7-10年期公債的趨勢，也雙雙從強勁正向緩和至溫和正向。相較之下，長天期部分則較為穩定，10-20年期和20年期以上券種皆維持其溫和正向的評級。此資訊突顯了市場對殖利率曲線前端的評估出現轉變。
📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。
如果您覺得這份研究有價值：
👍為這篇文章按讚。
➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。
本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Fed's Hawkish Pause Creates a Split Market as Tech Giants Report Mixed Fortunes
Fed uncertainty drives gold higher and pressures the broader U.S. market while the TAIEX surges to new records.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-10-29
Executive Summary
- U.S. markets closed mixed with significant volatility after the Fed cut rates but signaled a potential pause, while the TAIEX surged to a new record high.
- Mega-cap tech stocks split sharply, with strong Alphabet earnings lifting the Nasdaq even as disappointing guidance from Meta and Microsoft dragged down the S&P 500 and Dow.
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose as markets repriced the odds of a December rate cut following Fed Chair Powell's cautious commentary.
- The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points as expected but explicitly stated that further easing is not guaranteed.
- The focus now shifts to the Trump-Xi meeting, where discussions on AI chips and TSMC are expected, holding significant implications for the tech supply chain.
The market has shifted to being more discerning, a change triggered by the Federal Reserve's "hawkish pause." While the Fed delivered its widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent statement that a December cut is "not a foregone conclusion" injected significant uncertainty. This commentary immediately tempered investor enthusiasm, causing U.S. indices to retreat from record intraday highs.
This new selectivity was on full display in the performance of mega-cap technology stocks following their earnings reports. Investors clearly differentiated between winners and losers: Alphabet soared over 6% on stellar results, while Meta plunged more than 7% after pre-announcing a sharp increase in capital expenditures. Microsoft also fell over 3% on cautious cloud guidance. This split in performance among the market's leaders created a mixed close for the major indices, with the Nasdaq managing a gain while the S&P 500 finished flat and the Dow declined.
Meanwhile, the Taiwan market continued its powerful advance, with the TAIEX surging to close at a new historical high. The move was fueled by the unrelenting AI narrative, underscored by Nvidia's continued strength and positive commentary from CEO Jensen Huang. Gold reclaimed the $4,000/oz level and the VIX rose, confirming that underlying investor anxiety is increasing. With Amazon and Apple set to report earnings and the Trump-Xi meeting scheduled for today, the market faces its most significant tests yet.
Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economic & Bond Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key U.S. economic indicators and U.S. Treasury bond ETFs. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators
- Investment Duration: Current: --, Last Week: ▲
- Corporate Earnings: Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- Inflation: Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Consumer Strength: Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
The trend for Consumer Strength improved, moving from mildly to strongly positive. This was offset by a weakening in the Investment Duration indicator, which moved from mildly positive to neutral. Corporate Earnings also showed an improvement to a mildly positive trend. The indicators for Inflation and Currency Flow (into USD) held steady at their mildly negative readings. This information points to a stronger consumer assessment amid mixed signals from other parts of the economy.
Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)
- 1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: --, Last Week: ▲▲
- 3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- 7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- 10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- 20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
A significant easing of positive trends occurred at the short and intermediate parts of the U.S. Treasury curve. The indicator for 1-3 Year Treasuries weakened from strongly positive to neutral. Similarly, the trends for 3-7 Year and 7-10 Year Treasuries both moderated from strongly to mildly positive. In contrast, the longer end of the curve was stable, with both the 10-20 Year and 20+ Year segments maintaining their mildly positive ratings. This information highlights a shift in assessment for the front end of the curve.
📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content.
💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.
if you found this research valuable:
👍'Like' this post.
📰Follow this blog for new market updates.
➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.
This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）
關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》
鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。