外資大舉出走重擊台股，跌破關鍵支撐。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年11月14日 美東時間
摘要
- 投機性資產崩盤，避險性大宗商品如黃金等表現突出。
- 美國科技股急遽平倉，拖累那斯達克指數經歷動盪一週；外資的大舉拋售則中斷了台股的上升趨勢。
- 市場大幅下修對聯準會十二月降息的預期，增加了政策不確定性，公債殖利率穩定在4.15%附近。
- 因政府關門導致缺乏官方經濟數據，市場頓失方向，加劇了技術性崩盤與市場情緒轉變的衝擊。
- 俄羅斯港口遇襲導致原油價格飆漲，增添了另一層複雜性，並支撐了大宗商品表現突出的題材。
一場嚴峻的信心危機已籠罩市場，引發了本年度最擁擠的投機性交易出現猛烈的平倉。這並非一次健康的類股輪動，而是一場基礎廣泛的避險潮，比特幣的投降式拋售便是最主要的例證。在沉重的賣壓與大量的衍生性商品清算驅動下，此加密貨幣崩跌至六個月低點，是一次重大的技術性與心理性崩盤。此情緒崩潰直接蔓延至美股，高貝他值的科技股與AI股遭猛烈拋售。儘管主要指數呈現震盪，真正的損害發生在盤面之下，隨著市場波動加劇以及對聯準會政策的深度不確定性，投資者紛紛平倉輝達(Nvidia)與亞馬遜(Amazon)等市場龍頭的部位。
此一全球性的避險浪潮，以全力衝擊台灣市場。台股加權指數(TAIEX)於週五單日暴跌超過500點，並跌破月移動平均線。此波跌勢由前所未見的、近新台幣840億元的外資出走潮所驅動，創下史上最大單日賣超之一。這是對權值科技股的部位進行清算，直接反映了美國市場的AI股潰敗。市場內部動態確認了防禦性的轉向，本地資金正從大型電子龍頭股，輪動至規模較小的非科技國內題材。
跨資產類別的反應確認了這是一次典型的避險事件。在投資者尋求避風港之際，黃金仍然高漲；而一項特定的地緣政治事件——俄羅斯港口遇襲——則導致原油價格飆漲，進一步突顯了在不確定的環境中，實質資產的吸引力。此一焦慮的主要來源，是美國政府關門所造成的「數據沙漠」，這使得聯準會與投資者皆缺乏可靠的經濟指引。在聯準會十二月降息機率如今猶如拋硬幣般難料的情況下，市場正在一段不確定性的時期中航行。
週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢
本摘要總結了美國和台灣資產管理規模最大的交易所買賣基金(ETF)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：美國資產規模前五大ETF(美元計價)
- Vanguard標普500指數ETF (Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- iShares核心標普500指數ETF (Ticker: IVV): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- SPDR標普500指數ETF信託 (Ticker: SPY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- Vanguard整體股市指數ETF (Ticker: VTI): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- Invesco QQQ信託系列1 (Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
過去一週，美國規模最大的幾檔ETF趨勢評估維持穩定。追蹤標普500指數與那斯達克100指數等廣泛美國市場基準的所有五檔基金，皆維持其溫和正向的趨勢指標。在此群體中，並未記錄到任何升級或降級。此一穩定性顯示，美國大型股普遍的溫和正向趨勢評估，在本週持續且未出現顯著變化。
圖表二：台灣資產規模前五大ETF(新台幣計價)
- 元大台灣卓越50基金 (Ticker: 0050): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 元大高股息基金 (Ticker: 0056): 當前: ▼, 一週前: --
- 國泰永續高股息基金 (Ticker: 00878): 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 群益台灣精選高息基金 (Ticker: 00919): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 富邦台灣采吉50基金 (Ticker: 006208): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
台灣規模最大的幾檔ETF觀察到多樣的變化格局，主要集中在以高股息為主的領域。元大高股息ETF(0056)的指標從中性轉弱為溫和負向。相較之下，群益台灣精選高息ETF(00919)的負向趨勢則從強勁緩和至溫和。廣泛市值加權的基金(0050, 006208)則維持穩定，守住其溫和正向的趨勢。這指向市場對不同股息策略的評估出現動態變化，而核心市場的趨勢則依然穩固。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Bitcoin Crashes and AI Stocks Buckle as Investors Flee to Safety
A massive foreign investor exodus hammers the TAIEX, breaking key support levels.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-11-14
Executive Summary
- A severe wave of de-risking swept through global markets as speculative assets crashed.
- U.S. technology stocks unwound sharply, dragging the Nasdaq through a volatile week, and a massive foreign sell-off broke the TAIEX's uptrend.
- Treasury yields stabilized near 4.15% as the market significantly lowered expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, increasing policy uncertainty.
- The lack of official U.S. economic data due to the shutdown has left markets rudderless, amplifying the impact of technical breakdowns and shifts in sentiment.
- A Russian port attack caused a spike in crude oil, adding another layer of complexity and supporting the commodity outperformance theme.
A severe crisis of confidence has gripped the market, triggering a violent unwinding of the year's most crowded and speculative trades. This is a broad flight to safety, with the capitulation in Bitcoin serving as the primary exhibit. The cryptocurrency crashed to six-month lows, a major technical and psychological breakdown driven by heavy selling and massive derivatives liquidations. This sentiment collapse bled directly into U.S. equities, where high-beta technology and AI stocks were aggressively sold off. While the major indices were choppy, the real damage occurred under the surface as investors unwound exposure to market leaders like Nvidia and Amazon amid rising volatility and deep uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy.
This global risk-off wave slammed into the Taiwan market with full force. The TAIEX suffered a massive single-day drop on Friday, plunging over 500 points and breaking below its monthly moving average. The decline was driven by an unprecedented foreign investor exodus of nearly NT$84 billion, one of the largest on record. This was a liquidation of positions in heavyweight technology stocks, directly mirroring the AI rout in the U.S. The internal market action confirms a defensive pivot, with local capital rotating out of the large-cap electronic leaders and into smaller, non-tech domestic themes.
The cross-asset reaction confirms this is a classic flight-to-safety event. Gold remained elevated and a specific geopolitical event—an attack on a Russian port—caused a spike in crude oil, further underscoring the appeal of hard assets in an uncertain environment. The primary source of this anxiety is the "data desert" created by the U.S. government shutdown, which has left the Federal Reserve and investors without reliable economic guideposts. With Fed rate-cut odds for December now a coin toss, the market is navigating a period of uncertainty.
Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for the largest U.S. and Taiwanese exchange-traded funds by assets under management. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
The trend assessments for the largest U.S. ETFs were stable over the past week. All five funds, which track broad U.S. market benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, maintained their mildly positive trend indicators. There were no upgrades or downgrades recorded among this group. This stability suggests the prevailing mildly positive trend assessment for U.S. large-cap equities persisted without significant change during the week.
Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)
- Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
- Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
A varied pattern of changes was observed among Taiwan's largest ETFs, mainly in the dividend-focused space. The indicator for the Yuanta Dividend Plus ETF (0056) weakened from neutral to mildly negative. In contrast, the negative trend for the Capital TIP High Dividend ETF (00919) eased from strong to mild. The broad market-cap weighted funds (0050, 006208) were stable, maintaining their mildly positive trends. This points to a dynamic assessment of different dividend strategies while the core market trend held steady.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。