顯著反轉走勢，顯示獲利了結與估值擔憂。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年11月20日 美東時間
摘要
- 美股自早盤漲勢急遽反轉，由NVIDIA強勁財報所驅動的漲勢，最終不敵廣泛的拋售。
- 科技股與AI股的反轉走勢，顯示在對高估值的持續擔憂下，投資者現正優先進行獲利了結。
- 美國好壞參半的勞動市場數據，為貨幣政策帶來不確定性，降低了聯準會短期內降息的機率。
- 儘管非農就業數據優於預期，但失業率上升，使聯準會缺乏明確的寬鬆政策理由。
- 比特幣急遽下跌至七個月低點，確認了風險偏好普遍降低，尤其是在投機性資產方面。
在一場顯著的反轉中，由輝達(NVIDIA)驚人財報所點燃的初步漲勢遭到抹去，那斯達克指數最終收盤急遽下跌。輝達公布了大幅超越預期的營收及強勁的財測，市場最初應聲急遽上漲，但隔日即反轉。此一走勢確認了市場的主要驅動力，可能已從正面的基本面，轉向對過高估值及聯準會利率政策不確定路徑的壓倒性擔憂。
此一市場情緒的轉變，已由其他資產類別的動態及市場波動率的飆升所確認。CBOE波動率指數躍升，比特幣則暴跌至七個月低點，此清晰跡象顯示投資者正全面降低風險曝險。當日好壞參半的美國就業數據，更增添了不確定性。在就業增長優於預期、但失業率亦同步微升的情況下，該報告未能為經濟提供明確的方向，也未給予聯準會任何轉向更鴿派立場的有力理由。此一潛在貨幣政策支撐的移除，使市場易受獲利了結賣壓的衝擊。
對台灣市場而言，此次美國市場的反轉是一股顯著的逆風。由輝達(NVIDIA)業績所帶來的初步樂觀情緒，原先預示著一波強勁反彈，現已被一個負面的格局所取代。美國市場在迎來其最重要公司所能提供的最佳消息後，卻未能守住漲幅，顯示更廣泛的市場情緒已經惡化。長期的AI論述依然完整，但正被短期的擔憂所壓倒。當前的焦點不再是觸及新高，而是在此充滿挑戰的全球環境中，辨識支撐將在何處浮現。
週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢
本摘要總結了關鍵貨幣對(以新台幣計價)及主要大宗商品類股(以美元計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：貨幣(新台幣計價)
- 美元(貨幣對: USDTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 歐元(貨幣對: EURTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 日圓(貨幣對: JPYTWD): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 人民幣(貨幣對: CNYTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 加幣(貨幣對: CADTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
過去一週，兌新台幣的關鍵貨幣對趨勢指標維持穩定，未記錄到任何變化。美元、歐元、人民幣和加幣皆維持其強勁正向的趨勢。相較之下，日圓則守住其溫和負向的評估。此一靜止的狀態顯示，普遍的格局仍在持續，亦即大多數主要貨幣相對於新台幣呈現廣泛強勢，僅日圓為例外。
圖表二：大宗商品(美元計價)
- 能源類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▲
- 農業類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBA): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 工業金屬(代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 貴金屬(代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 數位資產(代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
能源類大宗商品產業出現顯著反轉，其趨勢指標從溫和正向轉為溫和負向。工業金屬的趨勢亦見轉弱，從強勁緩和至溫和正向。其他產業的評估則呈現穩定。農業類大宗商品和數位資產雙雙維持其強勁負向的趨勢，而貴金屬則守住其溫和正向的指標。此資訊指向能源與工業金屬的前景已出現明確轉弱。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Market Rejects Strong NVIDIA Earnings, Signaling a Shift in Sentiment
A significant reversal indicates profit-taking and valuation concerns.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-11-20
Executive Summary
- U.S. markets reversed sharply from early gains, as a rally driven by NVIDIA's strong earnings gave way to a broad-based sell-off.
- The reversal in technology and AI stocks indicates that investors are now prioritizing profit-taking amid persistent concerns over high valuations.
- Mixed U.S. labor market data created uncertainty for monetary policy, reducing the probability of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut.
- While nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, a rising unemployment rate left the Federal Reserve without a clear mandate to ease policy.
- A sharp decline in Bitcoin to seven-month lows confirmed a widespread reduction in risk appetite, particularly in speculative assets.
In a significant reversal, an initial rally fueled by NVIDIA's spectacular earnings report was erased, with the Nasdaq ultimately closing down sharply. NVIDIA delivered a massive revenue beat and a strong forecast, and the market initially rallied sharply, but reversed the following day. This action confirms that the primary market drivers may have shifted from positive fundamentals to an overriding concern with stretched valuations and the uncertain path for Federal Reserve interest rate policy.
This change in sentiment was confirmed by the action in other asset classes and the spike in market volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index jumped as Bitcoin plunged to a seven-month low, a clear sign that investors are reducing risk exposure across the board. The day's mixed U.S. jobs data contributed to the uncertainty. With job gains beating forecasts but the unemployment rate also ticking higher, the report offered no clear direction for the economy, giving the Federal Reserve no compelling reason to pivot to a more dovish stance. This removal of a potential monetary policy backstop left the market vulnerable to profit-taking.
For the Taiwan market, this U.S. reversal is a significant headwind. The initial optimism from NVIDIA's results, which originally suggested a strong rebound, has been replaced by a negative setup. A failure of the U.S. market to hold its gains—despite the best possible news from its most important company—indicates that the broader sentiment has soured. The long-term AI narrative remains intact, but it is being overwhelmed by short-term concerns. The immediate focus is no longer on reaching new highs but on identifying where support will materialize in this challenging global environment.
Thursday Asset Focus: Currency & Commodity Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key currency pairs against the TWD and for major commodity sectors in USD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)
- U.S. Dollar (FX Pair: USDTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Euro (FX Pair: EURTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Japanese Yen (FX Pair: JPYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Chinese Yuan (FX Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Canadian Dollar (FX Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
The trend indicators for key currency pairs against the TWD were stable over the past week, with no changes recorded. The U.S. Dollar, Euro, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar all maintained their strongly positive trends. In contrast, the Japanese Yen held its mildly negative assessment. This lack of movement suggests a continuation of the prevailing landscape, which shows broad strength in most major currencies relative to the New Taiwan Dollar, with the yen as the outlier.
Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)
- Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲
- Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
A notable reversal occurred in the Energy Commodities sector, with its trend indicator moving from mildly positive to mildly negative. The trend for Industrial Metals also weakened, easing from strongly to mildly positive. Other sectors showed stability in their assessments. Agricultural Commodities and Digital Assets both maintained their strongly negative trends, while Precious Metals held their mildly positive indicator. This information points to a distinct weakening in the outlook for energy and industrial metals.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。