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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】比特幣續跌，全球市場回檔
加密貨幣清算與全球增長疑慮，引發感恩節後漲勢回檔。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年12月1日 美東時間
摘要
- 全球市場十二月開局疲弱，美股指數下滑、比特幣暴跌，風險規避情緒再起，與台灣看漲的經濟預測形成對比。
- 加密貨幣急遽拋售及疲弱的製造業數據，打擊市場情緒，美股回檔；台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)下跌1.31%，對台股構成逆風。
- 儘管市場預期聯準會將降息，但在日本央行升息訊號引發的全球債市拋售下，公債殖利率上揚。
- 台灣2025年GDP增長預測上修至7.37%的15年新高，為本地市場提供了強大的基本面支撐。
- 比特幣暴跌6%，成為當日避險操作的主要催化劑，主因為強制平倉及對日圓利差交易平倉的擔憂。
在挑戰投資者信心的全球逆風匯集下，今年的最後一個月以更偏「避險」的基調開場。主要的催化劑是加密貨幣市場的急遽清算，比特幣暴跌約6%，跌破關鍵支撐水平。此波崩跌由強制拋售以及對日本央行升息將引發利差交易平倉的擔憂所助燃，其效應外溢至更廣泛的市場，拖累了加密貨幣相關股票並普遍打擊了市場情緒。在美國，此一負面背景更受到疲弱的製造業數據所加劇，儘管標普500指數創下七個月連漲，但仍導致該指數與那斯達克指數開局走低。
此一黯淡的全球景象，為正享受本地樂觀情緒復甦的台灣市場，創造了一個複雜的格局。台灣行政院主計總處已將其2025年GDP增長預測，大幅上修至7.37%的15年新高，預示著強勁的經濟健全狀況。此一強勁的基本面，加上台股加權指數(TAIEX)歷史上傾向於在十二月上漲的趨勢，以及聯準會量化緊縮計畫的結束，皆支持了看漲的年終展望。然而，當前的外部環境充滿挑戰；美國科技股與台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)的隔夜跌勢，為今日開盤帶來了直接的逆風。
強勁的本地基本面與疲弱的全球情緒之間的分歧，是需要關注的關鍵動態。由日本公債拋售所驅動的美國公債殖利率上揚，若加速，將對股票估值構成風險。投資者應看透由加密貨幣洗盤所引發的短期波動，並專注於台灣AI與能源產業的結構性優勢，這兩者仍然是市場最持久的增長引擎。
週一資產焦點：美國股市與個股趨勢
本摘要總結了美國主要股價指數及領先企業為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：美國股價指數(美元計價)
- 道瓊工業平均指數(代表性ETF: DIA): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
- 標普500指數(代表性ETF: SPY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 那斯達克綜合指數(代表性ETF: QQQ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 羅素2000指數(代表性ETF: IWM): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
- 費城半導體指數(代表性ETF: SOXQ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
過去一週，美國股價指數的趨勢指標顯現改善跡象。道瓊工業平均指數從中性轉強為溫和正向，與標普500指數、那斯達克綜合指數及費城半導體指數的趨勢一致，後三者皆維持其溫和正向的評級。此外，羅素2000指數的趨勢亦有所改善，從溫和負向轉為中性。此資訊顯示，小型股的評估已回穩，而更廣泛的市場則呈現持續的正向趨勢。
圖表二：美國前五大企業(美元計價)
- 輝達(NVIDIA Corp, NVDA): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
- 蘋果(Apple Inc, AAPL): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 微軟(Microsoft Corp, MSFT): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc, AMZN): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
- 博通(Broadcom Inc, AVGO): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
數家美國頂尖企業的趨勢評估出現轉變，其特徵為負向評級的減少。輝達(NVIDIA)和亞馬遜(Amazon)的指標，皆從溫和負向改善至中性。與此同時，蘋果(Apple)和博通(Broadcom)則維持其強勁正向的趨勢，持續在該群體中展現相對強勢。微軟(Microsoft)則仍是例外，守住其溫和負向的趨勢指標。此數據指向先前表現疲弱的關鍵科技龍頭，其前景正趨於穩固。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Global Markets Pull Back as Bitcoin Continues Its Plunge
Crypto liquidations and global growth concerns trigger a pull back after a Thanksgiving rally.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-12-01
Executive Summary
- Global markets began December on a weaker note, with U.S. indices slipping and Bitcoin plunging amid renewed risk aversion, contrasting with a bullish economic forecast for Taiwan.
- U.S. equities retreated as a sharp sell-off in crypto and weak manufacturing data dampened sentiment, while the TAIEX faces headwinds from a 1.31% drop in TSMC's ADR.
- Treasury yields rose despite expectations for a Fed rate cut, driven by a global bond sell-off sparked by Bank of Japan rate hike signals.
- Taiwan's 2025 GDP growth forecast was revised upward to a 15-year high of 7.37%, providing a powerful fundamental anchor for the local market.
- Bitcoin's 6% plunge served as the primary catalyst for the day's risk-off move, triggered by forced liquidations and fears of unwinding yen-funded carry trades.
The final month of the year has kicked off with more of a "risk-off" tone, driven by a confluence of global headwinds that are challenging investor confidence. The primary catalyst was a sharp liquidation in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin plunging roughly 6% to break below key support levels. This collapse, fueled by forced selling and fears of a Bank of Japan rate hike unwinding carry trades, spilled over into broader markets, dragging down crypto-linked stocks and dampening sentiment across the board. In the U.S., this negative backdrop was compounded by weak manufacturing data, leading to a soft start for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq despite the S&P's seven-month winning streak.
This gloomy global picture creates a complex setup for the Taiwan market, which is currently enjoying a resurgence of local optimism. Taiwan's Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics has dramatically revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 7.37%, a 15-year high, signaling robust economic health. This strength, combined with the historical tendency for the TAIEX to rally in December and the end of the Fed's quantitative tightening program, supports a bullish year-end outlook. However, the immediate external environment is challenging; the overnight drop in U.S. tech stocks and TSMC's ADR presents a direct headwind for today's opening.
The divergence between strong local fundamentals and weak global sentiment is the key dynamic to watch. The rise in the U.S. Treasury yields, driven by the sell-off in Japanese bonds, poses a risk to equity valuations if it accelerates. Investors should look through the short-term volatility caused by the crypto wash-out and focus on the structural strengths of Taiwan's AI and energy sectors, which remain the market's most durable engines of growth.
Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Equity & Company Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for major U.S. equity indices and leading U.S. companies. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
The trend indicators for U.S. equity indices showed signs of improvement over the past week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened from neutral to mildly positive, aligning it with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and PHLX Semiconductor indices, which all maintained their mildly positive ratings. Additionally, the trend for the Russell 2000 Index improved, shifting from mildly negative to neutral. This information suggests a stabilization in the assessment for small-cap stocks alongside persistent positive trends in the broader market.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)
- NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- Broadcom Inc (Ticker: AVGO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A shift in trend assessments occurred among several top U.S. companies, characterized by a reduction in negative ratings. Both NVIDIA and Amazon saw their indicators improve from mildly negative to neutral. Meanwhile, Apple and Broadcom maintained their strongly positive trends, continuing to show relative strength within the group. Microsoft remained the outlier, holding its mildly negative trend indicator. This data points to a firming of the outlook for key technology names that had previously shown weakness.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。