根據高盛研報資料《SMIC)：AI驅動需求上行趨勢；看好產能利用率和平均銷售單價；買入》
Source: Goldman Sachs research report —SMIC): AI drives demand uptrend; Positive on UT rates and ASP; Buy
關於中芯國際最重要的三個觀點如下：
The three most important takeaways regarding SMIC are as follows:
一、AI驅動需求高景氣，疊加多重利多支撐業績增長
I. AI-driven demand boom, coupled with multiple catalysts supporting earnings growth
AI浪潮是中芯國際2026年核心增長引擎，直接帶動配套模擬/邏輯晶片、資料中心電源管理晶片（PMIC）、AI邊緣裝置（機器人、智能電動車）半導體需求持續走強。
The AI wave serves as SMIC's core growth engine in 2026, directly driving sustained demand for supporting analog/logic chips, data center PMICs, and semiconductors used in AI edge devices (robots, smart EVs).
同時疊加四大利多：海外同行聚焦高端AI晶片，中芯承接主流成熟製程訂單；持續擴產釋放產能；國內客戶出於供應鏈安全，本土訂單激增；高毛利產品（儲存、BCD晶片）需求增速超傳統產品，產品結構持續最佳化。2Q26預計營收環比增14%-16%，量價齊升，毛利率維持20%-22%高位。
This is accompanied by four key tailwinds: overseas peers pivoting toward high-end AI chips, leaving SMIC to capture demand for mainstream mature-node processes; sustained capacity expansion unlocking growth; a surge in local orders from domestic customers seeking supply chain security; and faster growth in demand for high-margin products (memory, BCD chips) vs. traditional products, continuously improving product mix. 2Q26 revenue is expected to increase 14%-16% sequentially, driven by both volume and ASP expansion, with gross margin maintaining a high level of 20%-22%.
二、產能持續擴張，折舊壓力可控，毛利率穩步修復
II. Continuous capacity expansion, manageable depreciation pressure, and steady gross margin recovery
2026年擴產力度強勁，1Q26資本開支16億美元（同比+10%），產能新增1.95萬片/月（8英吋等效）；全年折舊預計同比增30%，但公司通過高需求產品提價 + 產品結構升級抵消折舊負面影響，保障毛利率穩定。
Capacity expansion remains robust in 2026. 1Q26 capex reached US$1.6 billion (+10% yoy), adding 19.5k wafer/month (8-inch equivalent). Full-year depreciation is expected to rise 30% yoy, but the company will offset the negative impact through price increases on high-demand products and product mix upgrading, thereby stabilizing gross margin.
盈利預測方面，2026-2029年營收小幅上調1%，僅2026年毛利率微降0.6個百分點（至22.1%），2027-2029年毛利率維持穩步上行趨勢（24.4%-29.0%），營運效率持續改善。
As for earnings forecasts, 2026-2029E revenue is slightly raised by 1%. 2026E gross margin is trimmed by 0.6 ppt (to 22.1%), while 2027-2029E gross margin maintains a steady upward trend (24.4%-29.0%), with operating efficiency continuing to improve.
三、維持“買入”評級，目標價上調，估值具備吸引力
III. Maintain "Buy" rating, TP raised, attractive valuation
高盛維持中芯國際A/H股“買入”評級，H股目標價135港元（前值134港元），A股目標價243.4元人民幣。估值採用貼現市盈率法，H股基於2028年預期市盈率80.7倍、15%權益成本折現；A股基於H股196%的A-H溢價（2024年以來均值）定價。
Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on both SMIC's A-shares and H-shares. The H-share target price is raised to HK135(fromHK135(fromHK134), and the A-share target price is set at RMB243.4. The valuation adopts the discounted P/E method: for H-shares, based on a 2028E P/E of 80.7x discounted at a 15% cost of equity; for A-shares, priced using the 196% A-H premium (the average since 2024) over the H-share valuation.
當前估值低於歷史平均市盈率，疊加長期高增長（2028-2029年淨利年均增速37.2%），成長確定性強；核心風險僅為消費電子需求疲軟、擴產不及預期、裝置材料供應受限，整體投資價值突出。
Current valuation is below historical average P/E, and with strong long-term growth (2028-2029 net profit CAGR of 37.2%), the growth outlook is highly visible. Key risks are limited to weak consumer electronics demand, slower-than-expected capacity expansion, and constraints on equipment/materials supply. Overall investment value is compelling.
總結
高盛堅定看好中芯國際2026-2029年發展，認為AI需求爆發、產能擴張與產品結構升級將驅動公司業績持續高增。短期折舊壓力可控，毛利率穩步修復，長期成長路徑清晰。公司當前估值具備吸引力，疊加國內半導體自主可控的長期紅利，投資價值顯著，維持“買入”評級。
Summary
Goldman Sachs remains bullish on SMIC's development over 2026-2029, believing that AI demand explosion, capacity expansion, and product mix upgrading will drive sustained high earnings growth. Near-term depreciation pressure is manageable, gross margin is gradually recovering, and the long-term growth trajectory is clear. With current valuation attractive, combined with the long-term tailwind of domestic semiconductor self-sufficiency, SMIC offers compelling investment value. Maintain "Buy" rating. (雙語研報)