Wolfe Researchsenior analystChris Casosaid Wednesday that memory suppliers and foundries remain unable to produce enough AI chips to meet demand, keeping the semiconductor industry constrained by capacity rather than excess supply.
Wolfe Research高級分析師Chris Caso周三表示，記憶體晶片供應商和晶圓代工廠仍無法生產足夠的AI晶片以滿足需求，使得半導體行業繼續受制於產能不足，而非供應過剩。
Physical Constraints Continue To Limit Chip Supply
物理限制繼續制約晶片供應
Speaking on CNBC followingSK Hynix Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SKHY) second-quarter earnings and the recent selloff in semiconductor stocks, Casso said memory manufacturers remain supply constrained, whileTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.has effectively sold out its advanced manufacturing capacity.
在SK Hynix Inc.（納斯達克：SKHY）公佈第二季度業績以及近期半導體股票拋售之後，Casso在接受CNBC採訪時表示，記憶體晶片製造商仍面臨供應受限，而台積電已基本售罄其先進製程產能。
"You just don't have the physical space to make the semiconductors right now," Casso said.
Casso表示：「目前你就是沒有足夠的物理空間來製造半導體。」
He added that the industry's current capacity constraints make an oversupply scenario unlikely before 2028.
他補充稱，該行業當前的產能限制使得在2028年之前不太可能出現供過於求的局面。
"Even the potential of getting to that oversupply situation is really 2028 at the very earliest," he said, adding that semiconductor equipment vendors believe "it could push farther than that."
「即使有可能出現供過於求的情況，最早也要到2028年，」他表示，並補充稱半導體設備供應商認為「這一時間點可能還會進一步推遲。」
"The memory suppliers are severely supply constrained," says Chris Caso from Wolfe Research. "They can't produce more – which is the very reason why we're bullish on memory." pic.twitter.com/h4prTtSlsD— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) July 29, 2026
Wolfe Research的Chris Caso表示：「記憶體晶片供應商嚴重受限於供應。他們無法生產更多——這正是我們看漲記憶體晶片的原因。」 pic.twitter.com/h4prTtSlsD— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) 2026年7月29日
Financing Has Emerged As Another Constraint
融資已成為另一項制約因素
Casso said financing has also become a bottleneck for AI infrastructure expansion, making chipmakers' efforts to support the broader ecosystem increasingly important.
Casso表示，融資也已成為人工智慧基礎設施擴張的瓶頸，使得晶片製造商支援更廣泛生態系統的工作變得愈發重要。
He added thatNvidia Corp.'s (NASDAQ:NVDA) investments in suppliers and AI companies help expand capacity, but drew a distinction between equity investments and reported financing backstops for customers.
他補充說，輝達公司（納斯達克：NVDA）對供應商和人工智慧公司的投資有助於擴大產能，但他區分了股權投資與向客戶提供的融資支援。
"That part I'm less comfortable with," Casso said, referring to financing guarantees that could create future liabilities despite Nvidia having the best balance sheet in the industry.
Casso表示：「我對那部分不太放心」，指的是儘管輝達擁有業內最佳的資產負債表，但融資擔保可能會帶來未來的負債。
Semiconductor Selloff Follows AI Spending Concerns
半導體拋售緊隨人工智慧支出擔憂而來
The semiconductor stocks have come under pressure this month amid growing investor concerns over AI spending, following a sharp rally earlier this year.
本月，受投資者對人工智慧支出日益擔憂的影響，半導體類股票承壓，此前今年早些時候該類股曾大幅上漲。
iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund(NASDAQ:SOXX) retreated 27.43% in July. The fund has returned 48.24% so far this year and 87.54% over the past year.
iShares PHLX SOX半導體類股指數基金（納斯達克：SOXX）7月下跌27.43%。該基金今年以來已上漲48.24%，過去一年上漲87.54%。
TheVanEck Semiconductor ETF(NASDAQ:SMH), which holds chipmakers includingNvidia,Micron Technology Inc.(NASDAQ:MU),Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(NASDAQ:AMD),Broadcom Inc.(NASDAQ:AVGO) andIntel Corp.(NASDAQ:INTC), has lost 23.12% this month. Shares are up 24.97% year-to-date and 35.07% over the past year.
VanEck半導體ETF（納斯達克：SMH）持有包括輝達、美光科技（納斯達克：MU）、美國超微公司（納斯達克：AMD）、博通（納斯達克：AVGO）和英特爾（納斯達克：INTC）在內的晶片製造商股票，本月下跌23.12%。今年以來股價上漲24.97%，過去一年上漲35.07%。
Price Action:SOXX closed 5.38% lower on Wednesday at $465 and rose 1.30% in early pre-market trading on Thursday.
價格走勢：SOXX周三收跌5.38%，報$465；周四盤前早段上漲1.30%。
Benzinga edge rankingsshow SOXX has a Momentum score in the 92nd percentile, despite a negative short and medium-term price trend. The fund maintains a positive long-term price trend.
Benzinga Edge排名顯示，儘管SOXX短期和中期價格趨勢為負，但其動量評分仍處於第92百分位。該基金維持長期正向價格趨勢。
(Benzinga)