SanDisk Corp.(NASDAQ:SNDK) andMicron Technology Inc.(NASDAQ:MU) have been two of the most whipsawed stocks in the American market this summer. Their earnings expectations have continued to rise.
SanDisk Corp.（納斯達克：SNDK）和美光科技（納斯達克：MU）是今年夏季美國市場波動最劇烈的兩隻股票。它們的盈利預期持續上升。
That divergence has produced a strange screen.
這種分化造就了一個奇怪的局面。
Rank the large-cap US technology universe by forward price-to-earnings, the share price divided by what analysts expect the company to earn over the coming twelve months, and the cheapest name on the list is SanDisk at 6.0 times.
按前瞻市盈率（股價除以分析師預計該公司在未來十二個月的每股收益）對美國大盤科技股進行排名，名單上最便宜的是SanDisk，為6.0倍。
The second cheapest is Micron at 6.3 times.
第二便宜的是美光科技，為6.3倍。
Both are also up triple digits this year.
這兩家公司今年的股價也都上漲了三位數百分比。
Yet Wall Street now values them like businesses in decline.
然而華爾街如今卻將它們視為處於衰退中的企業。
The Cheapest Corner of Tech Looks Very Different
科技股中最便宜的角落看起來大不相同
Look at what surrounds them.
看看它們周圍的情況。
GoDaddy Inc.(NYSE:GDDY) trades at 8.6 times forward earnings after falling 28% this year.
GoDaddy Inc.（紐約證券交易所代碼：GDDY）今年下跌28%後，目前的前瞻市盈率為8.6倍。
Super Micro Computer Inc.(NASDAQ:SMCI) trades at 8.9 times and remains 75% below its record.
超微電腦公司（納斯達克代碼：SMCI）的交易市盈率為8.9倍，仍比其歷史高點低75%。
Adobe Inc.(NASDAQ:ADBE) sits at 9.9 times after dropping 27% this year.Gartner Inc.(NYSE:IT) trades at 11.7 times and remains nearly 69% below its all-time high.
Adobe Inc.（納斯達克代碼：ADBE）今年下跌27%後，前瞻市盈率為9.9倍。Gartner Inc.（紐約證券交易所代碼：IT）的前瞻市盈率為11.7倍，股價仍比歷史高點低近69%。
Those are the multiples investors usually assign to businesses facing slowing growth, disruption or uncertainty related to artificial intelligence.
這些是投資者通常給予那些面臨增長放緩、顛覆或與人工智慧相關的不確定性的企業的估值倍數。
SanDisk and Micron are cheaper than them.
閃迪和美光科技的估值倍數低於它們。
| Company | Forward P/E | 2026 Return | Below All-Time High |
|---|---|---|---|
| SanDisk Corp. | 6.0x | +444.4% | -45.7% |
| Micron Technology Inc. | 6.3x | +216.1% | -28.6% |
| GoDaddy Inc. | 8.6x | -28.2% | -58.7% |
| Super Micro Computer Inc. | 8.9x | +3.4% | -75.4% |
| Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. | 9.3x | -32.4% | -36.3% |
| Gen Digital Inc. | 9.4x | +0.5% | -13.5% |
| Adobe Inc. | 9.9x | -26.7% | -63.2% |
| HP Inc. | 10.3x | +26.7% | -23.3% |
| Gartner Inc. | 11.7x | -27.9% | -68.8% |
Source: Koyfin
| 公司 | 遠期市盈率 | 2026年回報率 | 低於歷史最高水平 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SanDisk Corp. | 6.0x | +444.4% | -45.7% |
| 美光科技公司 | 6.3x | +216.1% | -28.6% |
| GoDaddy Inc. | 8.6x | -28.2% | -58.7% |
| 超微電腦公司 | 8.9x | +3.4% | -75.4% |
| Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. | 9.3x | -32.4% | -36.3% |
| Gen Digital Inc. | 9.4x | +0.5% | -13.5% |
| Adobe Inc. | 9.9x | -26.7% | -63.2% |
| 惠普 | 10.3x | +26.7% | -23.3% |
| Gartner Inc. | 11.7x | -27.9% | -68.8% |
來源：Koyfin
The Market Doesn't Believe Today's Earnings Will Last
市場不相信當前的盈利水平能夠持續
The arithmetic behind those six-times multiples is striking.
這些六倍市盈率背後的算術令人震驚。
SanDisk is now expected to earn $214.32 per share over the next twelve months. Just three months ago, analysts were modeling roughly $168.
SanDisk目前預計在未來十二個月每股盈利$214.32。就在三個月前，分析師的模型預測約為$168。
That means forward earnings estimates have risen 27.6% in only three months, even as the stock has retreated about 46% from its record.
這意味著，儘管股價已從歷史高點回落約46%，但未來盈利預期在短短三個月內已上調27.6%。
Micron shows almost the same pattern.
美光科技幾乎呈現出相同的模式。
Analysts now expect $144.21 per share over the next twelve months, up 26.7% from roughly $114 three months ago. Yet the stock trades 29% below its all-time high.
分析師目前預計美光科技在未來十二個月每股盈利$144.21，較三個月前的約$114上調了26.7%。然而，其股價仍比歷史最高點低29%。
That combination matters.
這種組合至關重要。
The stocks are not becoming cheaper because Wall Street is cutting forecasts more slowly than prices are falling. They are becoming cheaper while Wall Street is still raising forecasts aggressively.
股票並非因為華爾街下調盈利預測的速度慢於股價下跌而變得便宜。它們是在華爾街仍在積極上調盈利預測的同時變得便宜的。
And that is where the trap may lie.
而這可能正是陷阱所在。
A low multiple on peak-cycle earnings is not necessarily a discount.
基於周期峰值盈利的低估值倍數並不一定意味著折價。
Memory has been among the most cyclical businesses in semiconductors. Historically, these stocks can look cheapest precisely when profits are closest to their peak.
記憶體器業務一直是半導體行業中周期性最強的領域之一。從歷史來看，這類股票往往在利潤最接近峰值時看起來最便宜。
Supply eventually catches demand. Memory prices fall. Earnings estimates follow.
供應最終會趕上需求。記憶體器價格下跌，盈利預期隨之調整。
A stock that appeared to trade at six times earnings can suddenly look far more expensive once the denominator collapses.
一隻看似以六倍市盈率交易的股票，一旦分母（盈利）驟降，其估值可能突然顯得貴得多。
Why AI Could Break the Old Memory Cycle
為什麼人工智慧可能打破舊有的記憶體器周期
What makes this cycle unusual is the visibility companies are trying to build around those earnings.
本輪周期不同尋常之處在於，企業正試圖圍繞這些盈利建立更高的可見性。
If AI keeps memory demand structurally tighter than previous technology cycles, the earnings investors currently consider temporary may prove more durable.
如果人工智慧使記憶體器需求持續比以往技術周期更為緊張，那麼投資者目前視為暫時性的盈利可能會被證明更具持久性。
That would make 6 times earnings unusually cheap.
那樣的話，六倍市盈率將顯得異常便宜。
SanDisk said its new business model agreements — multi-year supply contracts with fixed or floored pricing — should cover more than half of shipped bits in fiscal 2027 and roughly two-thirds in fiscal 2028.
SanDisk表示，其新的商業模式協議——多年期供應合同，採用固定價格或保底價格——應覆蓋2027財年出貨位元量的一半以上，並在2028財年覆蓋約三分之二。
The agreements carry $16.5 billion in financial guarantees.
這些協議包含$165億的財務擔保。
Micron, meanwhile, has guided its current quarter to roughly $50 billion in revenue, following $41.46 billion in the quarter just reported and also indicated sixteen long-term agreements through 2030.
與此同時，Micron對其當前季度的收入指引約為$500億，而剛剛報告的季度收入為$414.6億，並還表示已達成十六項長期協議，有效期至2030年。
The Real Question Behind SanDisk and Micron
SanDisk和Micron背後真正的問題
That makes SanDisk and Micron perhaps the clearest valuation test in the AI market today.
這使得SanDisk和Micron或許成為當今AI市場中最清晰的估值測試案例。
Investors have already rewarded the memory shortage. SanDisk is up 444% this year and Micron 216%.
投資者已經因內存短缺而給予回報。SanDisk今年上漲了444%，Micron上漲了216%。
Yet their valuations suggest Wall Street still refuses to treat those profits as permanent.
然而，它們的估值表明，華爾街仍不願將這些利潤視為永久性的。
The next leg of the trade therefore depends less on whether AI demand remains strong. It depends on whether AI has finally changed the economics of memory.
因此，下一階段的交易更多地不取決於AI需求是否繼續保持強勁，而取決於AI是否最終改變了內存的經濟模式。
If it has, the cheapest stocks in technology may also be among its most misunderstood.
如果確實如此，那麼科技領域中最便宜的股票可能也是被誤解最深的股票之一。 (Benzinga)