NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) has become the world's largest company as AI infrastructure spending surges, but Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) says the corporate adoption cycle that comes next has only just started.
隨著人工智慧基礎設施支出的激增，英偉達公司（納斯達克股票代碼：NVDA）已成為全球市值最大的公司，但摩根士丹利（紐約證券交易所股票代碼：MS）表示，接下來的企業採用週期才剛剛開始。
"We're at the national anthem" when it comes to AI adoption, Dan Skelly, head of market research and strategy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, told CNBC Monday.
「在人工智慧的採用方面，我們正處於國歌奏響之時，」摩根士丹利財富管理公司市場研究與戰略負責人丹·斯凱利週一向 CNBC 表示。
• NVIDIA stock is building positive momentum. Why is NVDA stock advancing?
• 英偉達股價正積蓄積極動能。英偉達股票為何走高？
AI Spending Came First
人工智慧支出位居首位
Skelly said Morgan Stanley has heard "nothing but accelerating demand" during the past three weeks of corporate conference season.
斯凱利表示，在過去三週的企業會議季中，摩根士丹利只聽到了「需求不斷加速」的聲音。
Investors often ask what inning the AI adoption cycle is in, Skelly said. His answer has been that it is still at the "national anthem," although he said the "first pitch of the top of the first inning" may now have been thrown.
斯凱利表示，投資者經常詢問人工智能的普及進程目前處於那個階段。他的回答是，這一進程仍處於「國歌」階段，不過他同時指出，「第一局上半局的第一球」或許已經投出。
But he separated that early adoption cycle from the infrastructure spending boom already underway.
但他將這一早期採用週期與業已啓動的基礎設施支出熱潮區分開來。
"We're not early in the spending cycle, but the adoption cycle is what's going to matter next for this market," Skelly said.
「我們並未處於支出週期的早期階段，但接下來決定這一市場走向的，將是技術採納週期，」斯凱利表示。
He expects tech-focused companies to adopt AI sooner and faster and said the benefits have only begun to show up in earnings. Skelly recommended investors remain biased toward higher-quality Magnificent Seven names.
他預計以科技爲主的企業將更早、更快地採用人工智能，並表示其帶來的利好目前才剛剛開始體現在業績中。斯凱利建議投資者繼續偏好那些質量更高的「七巨頭」標的。
An August Citi note showed the scale of the first phase. Google, Microsoft and Amazon's combined cloud backlog reached $1.69 trillion in the second quarter, up from $1.45 trillion in the first, while backlog growth accelerated to 151% year over year.
花旗8月的一份報告揭示了第一階段的規模。谷歌、微軟和亞馬遜的雲業務未完成訂單總額在第二季度達到1.69萬億美元，高於第一季度的1.45萬億美元，且未完成訂單同比增長加速至151%。
AI Benefits Are Growing
人工智能的益處正在增長
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said in July that roughly 25% of S&P 500 companies cited measurable benefits from AI adoption in the second quarter, up from 14% a year earlier.
摩根士丹利的邁克·威爾遜在7月表示，第二季度約有25%的標普500成分股公司稱已從人工智能的採用中獲得可觀的收益，這一比例較一年前的14%有所上升。
That means roughly three-quarters of the index still had not cited a measurable AI benefit, underscoring Skelly's argument that the earnings impact remains early.
這意味着，該指數中仍有約四分之三的成分股尚未報告出可量化的AI效益，這進一步印證了斯凱利的觀點：人工智能對盈利的影響尚處於早期階段。
A separate February survey of 935 executives found companies using AI for at least a year reported an average 11.5% net productivity gain over the previous 12 months.
另一項於二月開展、針對935名高管的調查顯示，那些已應用人工智能至少一年的企業報告稱，在過去12個月裏，其淨生產率平均提升了11.5%。
Nvidia Leads Year-End Market-Cap Odds
英偉達領跑年末市值排名
Nvidia has been the biggest market winner from the spending cycle Skelly says is already well underway. The question now is whether broader corporate adoption can justify that buildout.
英偉達已成爲斯凱利所稱已全面啓動的支出週期中最大的贏家。眼下亟待解答的問題是：更廣泛的企業採用能否爲這一擴張提供合理支撐？
Polymarket traders currently give Nvidia a 74% chance of finishing 2026 as the world's largest company, compared with 16% for Apple and 8% for Alphabet.
Polymarket的交易者目前認爲英偉達在2026年成爲全球市值最大公司的概率爲74%，而蘋果和Alphabet分別爲16%和8%。
The market has attracted about $7.45 million in trading volume.
該市場已吸引約745萬美元的交易額。
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said last week the AI spending flywheel is "really, really flying."
英偉達首席執行官黃仁勳上週表示，人工智能領域的支出正「真正、真正地蓬勃發展」。 (Benzinga)