SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) could acquire Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) for $480 per share, creating a combined company worth $3.74 trillion, according to RBC Capital Markets.
據加拿大皇家銀行資本市場稱，SpaceX（納斯達克股票代碼：SPCX）可能以每股480美元的價格收購特斯拉（納斯達克股票代碼：TSLA），從而組建一家市值達3.74兆美元的合併公司。
But Tesla shareholders would receive just 48% of the merged business, down from 54% in the bank's July calculations, even though the hypothetical offer price has not changed.
但特斯拉股東將僅獲得合併後公司48%的股權，低於該行7月測算的54%，儘管假設的報價並未發生變化。
SpaceX's Rising Value Changes the Deal
SpaceX市值飆升，改變了交易條款
RBC analyst Tom Narayan modeled a combined company worth $3.31 trillion in July, with Tesla investors holding 54%.
RBC分析師湯姆·納拉揚在7月建模得出，合併後公司的估值為3.31兆美元，其中特斯拉投資者持股比例為54%。
But SpaceX's rising valuation has flipped the equation. RBC's latest research note puts the combined company at $3.74 trillion, with SpaceX shareholders owning 52%.
然而，SpaceX估值的飆升已徹底扭轉了這一局面。加拿大皇家銀行最新發布的研報顯示，合併後的公司估值高達3.74兆美元，其中SpaceX股東持股佔比為52%。
That gives SpaceX investors roughly $422 billion more in implied value, while Tesla holders' stake remains worth about $1.8 trillion.
這使得SpaceX的投資者在隱含價值方面增加了約4220億美元，而特斯拉股東的持股價值仍約爲1.8兆美元。
RBC's $480 valuation represents a roughly 30% premium for Tesla investors. Under the hypothetical all-stock deal, shareholders would receive SpaceX shares rather than cash, with the final value depending on the companies' share prices and the terms of any agreement.
RBC給出的480美元估值，相當於爲特斯拉投資者提供了約30%的溢價。在這一假設性的全股票交易中，股東將獲得SpaceX的股票而非現金，最終價值取決於兩家公司的股價以及任何協議的具體條款。
RBC sees potential benefits from combining Tesla's robotics and manufacturing operations with SpaceX's AI infrastructure, including their Terafab semiconductor ambitions. The bank says it has no knowledge of an actual transaction.
RBC認爲，將特斯拉的機器人與製造業務與SpaceX的人工智能基礎設施相結合，有望帶來潛在收益，其中包括其Terafab半導體業務的雄心。該銀行表示，目前尚不了解有任何實際交易。
Asked in September why Tesla and SpaceX remained separate, Elon Musk called it a "great question" and told listeners to "imagine what action" he might take given the companies' growing collaboration.
9月，當被問及爲何特斯拉與SpaceX仍保持獨立時，埃隆·馬斯克稱這是一個「好問題」，並讓聽衆「設想一下」在兩家公司日益緊密合作的情況下，他可能會採取何種行動。
Would Tesla Shareholders Really Benefit?
特斯拉股東真的會受益嗎？
Gary Black, managing partner at Future Fund, warned Tesla investors last week that any takeover premium paid in SpaceX shares could be "whittled away by arbs."
未來基金的管理合夥人加里·布萊克上周警告特斯拉投資者，任何以SpaceX股票支付的收購溢價都可能被套利者蠶食。
Black argued that investors could value the combined company using Tesla's lower valuation multiple, while arbitrage traders seeking to profit from the merger could eat into the premium before the deal closes.
布萊克認爲，投資者可以按照特斯拉較低的估值倍數來爲合併後的公司估值，而那些試圖從併購中獲利的套利交易者則可能在交易完成前蠶食掉這部分溢價。
Prediction Traders See a Longer Road
預測交易員們看到一條更長的路
Barclays analyst Dan Levy suggested last week that an announcement could arrive before Tesla's Dec. 3 shareholder meeting.
巴克萊銀行分析師丹·萊維上周表示，相關公告可能會在特斯拉12月3日的股東大會之前發佈。
Traders on Polymarket put the probability of an official announcement by Dec. 31 at 18%, rising to 64% by the end of 2027. The market has attracted over $1.4 million in trading volume.
Polymarket上的交易者預計，到12月31日之前官方宣佈的概率爲18%，而到2027年底這一概率將升至64%。該市場已累計成交超過140萬美元。
Tesla shares rose over 3% to $367, while SpaceX gained over 2% to $150.
特斯拉股價上漲逾3%，至367美元，而SpaceX則上漲逾2%，至150美元。
SpaceX reports earnings Tuesday, Oct. 20, followed by Tesla on Wednesday, Oct. 21.
SpaceX將於10月20日星期二公佈業績，隨後特斯拉將於10月21日星期三公佈業績。 (Benzinga)