Michael Burry is weighing whether to part ways with some of his best-performing long-term holdings. In a weekend post on his Substack, Cassandra Unchained, Burry said he will consider selling, reducing or donating long-held stocks whose valuations have become stretched.
麥可·貝瑞正在權衡是否減持部分表現最佳的長期持倉。他在其Substack專欄「Cassandra Unchained」上發表的一篇周末文章中表示，對於那些估值已顯高企的長期持股，他將考慮出售、減倉或捐贈。
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He named Walmart Inc. (NASDAQ:WMT), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO) as examples, along with "a few others like them."
他以沃爾瑪公司（納斯達克：WMT）、Alphabet（納斯達克：GOOGL）和瓦萊羅能源公司（紐約證券交易所：VLO）為例，並提到「其他一些類似的公司」。
Burry credited secular trends for the gains in all three. He also said the bull market has given them plenty of support.
貝瑞將三者的上漲歸因於長期趨勢。他還表示，本輪牛市爲它們提供了有力支撐。
The to-do list closed out a lengthy study comparing today's market with the run-up to the March 2000 dot-com peak. Burry examined 982 S&P 500 record closes going back to 1980 and scored each on seven measures of market internals.
這份待辦事項清單爲一項歷時已久的研究所畫上了句號，該研究將當前市場與2000年3月互聯網泡沫巔峰前夕的市場進行了對比。貝瑞查閱了自1980年以來標普500指數的982個收盤紀錄，並從七個市場內部指標維度對每個紀錄逐一打分。
Only two tops landed at or beyond the 95th percentile of weakness on every measure: March 2000 and the index's Oct. 6, 2026 record.
在各項指標上，僅有兩次頂部的疲弱程度達到或超過了第95百分位：2000年3月以及該指數於2026年10月6日創下的歷史最高點。
Valuations look familiar too. Using his own adjusted earnings figures, Burry estimates the S&P 500 trades at about 32 times earnings, roughly in line with the 32 to 34 times multiple of 2000.
估值水平也頗爲熟悉。根據他自行調整後的盈利數據，貝瑞估算標普500指數的市盈率約爲32倍，與2000年的32至34倍大致相當。
Busted Longs, AI Shorts
寬鬆長褲，AI短褲
History offers a warning for stocks riding high. After the 2000 top, S&P 500 members trading within 10% of their highs posted a median decline of 33% over the next 12 months and 50% over 18 months, according to his data.
歷史爲那些高企的股市敲響了警鐘。根據他的數據，2000年見頂之後，那些股價僅在歷史高位10%以內交易的標普500成分股，在隨後12個月內平均下跌33%，而在18個月內則平均下跌50%。
Stocks already down more than 40%, a group he labels "Busted," rose a median 19% over the first year.
那些跌幅已超過40%、被他稱爲「爆倉股」的股票，在首年平均上漲了19%。
Burry has been building positions in those beaten-down names. He listed Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU), PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) and Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) among current or recent holdings bought deep into their drawdowns.
貝瑞一直在增持那些被嚴重低估的股票。他將Lululemon Athletica公司（納斯達克代碼：LULU）、PayPal控股公司（納斯達克代碼：PYPL）以及Adobe公司（納斯達克代碼：ADBE）列入其當前或近期持倉，並在這些股票大幅回調時逢低買入。
Those longs sit opposite short positions focused on AI and semiconductor stocks.He described the portfolio as unhedged but set up to win directionally on both sides in a bear market.
那些做多頭寸與聚焦於人工智能和半導體板塊的空頭頭寸相對立。他將該投資組合描述爲未對沖，但在熊市中已做好佈局，有望在雙向行情中均斬獲收益。
Trimming Walmart, Alphabet and Valero would fit the same playbook. Capital freed from stretched winners could flow toward cheaper opportunities, and Burry says he has found several outside the S&P 500.
削減沃爾瑪、字母表和瓦萊羅的持倉將遵循同樣的策略。從那些估值過高的龍頭股中釋放出來的資金有望流向估值更爲合理的投資機會，而貝瑞表示，他在標普500指數之外也發現了若干此類標的。
He has added international holdings, including Australian online retailer Temple & Webster Group Ltd. (ASX:TPW), and flagged U.S. small-cap value as worth a look. Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc. (NYSE:BBW), he wrote, now trades below a valuation threshold he calls IV15.
他已增持多項國際資產，其中包括澳大利亞在線零售商Temple & Webster Group Ltd.（ASX：TPW），並指出美國小盤價值股值得關注。他寫道，Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc.（NYSE：BBW）目前的股價已低於他所稱的IV15估值門檻。
Burry pointed to the stretch from 1999 to 2007, when small-cap value stocks outperformed both small-cap growth and the S&P 500 as money fled the former large-cap leaders.
貝瑞指出，從1999年到2007年這段時期，隨着資金紛紛撤離昔日的大型股龍頭，小盤價值股的表現優於小盤成長股和標普500指數。
Fully Invested ... For Now
已全額投資……目前如此
For now, he says he remains essentially fully invested given his sizable short book. Without it, he might hold cash. If attractive opportunities dry up, short-term Treasury money market funds would be his preferred place to park capital.
目前，他表示鑑於手中持有規模可觀的空頭頭寸，自己基本上仍保持滿倉。若無此頭寸，他可能會持有現金。倘若優質投資機會枯竭，短期國債貨幣市場基金將是他首選的資金存放之所。
Burry did not say when, or whether, he would act on the three names.
貝瑞並未說明他何時、亦或是否會就這三名人士採取行動。 (Benzinga)