聲明風格大變樣：
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:
聯邦公開市場委員會以12票贊成、0票反對的投票結果批准發佈以下聲明：
The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
為支援聯準會的雙重使命，委員會決定將聯邦基金利率的目標區間維持在3.5%至3.75%不變。委員會重申了保持銀行體系充裕準備金的政策。
Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.
儘管中東衝突在一定程度上帶來了居高不下的不確定性，但經濟活動仍在以穩健的步伐擴張。生產率增長和資本投資表現強勁。就業增長與勞動力增長保持同步，失業率幾乎沒有變化。
Inflaion remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.
相較於委員會2%的長期目標，通膨率依然偏高，這在一定程度上反映了供應衝擊對包括能源在內的特定行業價格上漲的推動作用。委員會將實現物價穩定。
評：聲明格式和內容順序大變樣，政策決定前置，利率不變，重申保持充裕準備金以打消市場對激進推進縮表的疑慮，此後則是對經濟、就業和通膨的現實描述。個人認為不宜與舊版的聲明再進行對比解讀。
請注意，聲明內容格式的改變在當次FOMC會議投票通過即可，但點陣圖和經濟預測的格式變化則有前置的行政流程要走。
SEP與點陣圖（格式未變）
評：半數委員指引年內可能加息，通膨預測相比3月大幅上調。點陣圖中僅有18個點，而FOMC一共19位成員（7位理事和12位地方聯儲主席），華許可能拒絕給出自身的經濟預測和利率預測點。
（牛逼的是本人的Gemini預測到了這一點）
發佈會細節
開場陳述
Good day. It's an honor, a true honor, to take up this duty at a time of such consequence. I've been especially heartened by the warm welcome of old friends and new colleagues both. And I've listened closely to my fellow FOMC members—heard a lot of new ideas, new thinking, and genuine interest in moving the Fed forward.
大家下午好。在如此重要的歷史關頭履任此職，我深感榮幸，這是真正的榮幸。老朋友和新同事們的熱烈歡迎讓我倍受鼓舞。我也仔細傾聽了聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）同事們的意見，聽到了許多新想法、新思維，以及推動聯準會向前發展的真誠願望。
This week's FOMC meeting exemplified the very best of the Fed's traditions—rigorous debate, open-mindedness, commitment to mission, responsibility, and accountability for performance.
本周的 FOMC 會議展現了聯準會最優秀的傳統——嚴謹的辯論、開放的心態、對使命的恪守、責任感以及對績效的問責。
In this business, they all add up to one thing—getting monetary policy right, or as near to it as we can do. That is our North Star. My colleagues and I are here to serve our legislative remit, which you've heard us say before—price stability and maximum employment. And these objectives guided our business in the meeting just concluded.
在我們的工作中，所有這一切最終都歸結為一件事——確保貨幣政策的正確性，或者儘可能做到盡善盡美。這就是我們的北極星。我和我的同事們旨在履行國會賦予我們的法定職責，也就是你們之前聽我們說過的——物價穩定和充分就業。這些目標指導了我們在剛剛結束的會議上的所有工作。
As you saw a few moments ago, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the Fed funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75%, in support of the Fed's dual mandate. The committee also reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes in part to the conflict in the Middle East.
正如你們剛才所看到的，為了支援聯準會的雙重使命，委員會決定將聯邦基金利率的目標區間維持在 3.5% 至 3.75% 不變。委員會還重申了維持銀行體系充足準備金的政策。儘管存在高企的不確定性（部分歸因於中東衝突），但經濟活動仍在以穩健的步伐擴張。
Productivity growth and capital investment, both strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. We recognize that inflation has been running well ahead of the Fed's long-stated inflation goal of 2%. That's been going on for more than five years.
生產率增長和資本投資均表現強勁。就業增長與勞動力人口增長保持同步，失業率幾無變化。我們認識到，通膨率一直遠高於聯準會長期以來設定的 2% 的通膨目標。這種情況已經持續了五年多。
Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people. But the recent past need not be prologue. I am pleased to report that members of the FOMC are unambiguous and unanimous. This committee will deliver price stability.
持久的高物價是美國人民的沉重負擔。但過去發生的事情並不必然預示著未來。我很高興地報告，FOMC 的成員們態度明確且一致：本委員會必將實現物價穩定。
At any institution, a change in leadership is a natural and timely opportunity to reaffirm its mission, review current practices, and consider whether they meet our objectives. We will be working in close collaboration to ask what changes might improve the conduct of monetary policy.
對於任何機構而言，領導層的更迭都是一個自然且及時的契機，可以借此重申使命、審視現有慣例，並思考它們是否符合我們的目標。我們將緊密合作，共同探討那些變革能夠改善貨幣政策的執行。
On that score, you might have already noticed something—a difference in today's policy statement. It's a bit shorter, a bit simpler, and it dispenses with some older language. That statement just gives you the facts as best we can judge it. Absent also is so-called forward guidance, which we agreed was not well-suited to the current policy conjuncture.
在這方面，你們可能已經注意到了一些變化——今天政策聲明中的不同之處。它更短、更精簡，並放棄了一些舊措辭。這份聲明只是盡我們所能客觀地向大家陳述事實。同時，聲明中也取消了所謂的"前瞻性指引"，我們一致認為，前瞻性指引並不適合當前的政策局面。
This afternoon, you also received the usual summary of economic projections. It's been the practice of this committee for participants to submit these. I have encouraged my colleagues to do so. I, however, refrained from offering any projections of my own, consistent with my long-held views on the SEP, at least as currently structured.
今天下午，你們還收到了常規的經濟預測摘要（SEP）。與會者提交這些預測是本委員會的慣例。我鼓勵我的同事們這樣做。然而，我本人沒有提供任何自己的預測，這與我對 SEP（至少是目前結構下的 SEP）長期以來的看法是一致的。
In the medium projections, real GDP rises at 2.2% this year, 2.3% next year. And total PCE inflation runs at 3.6% this year, 2.3% next year. The unemployment rate stands at about 4.3%. The median participant judges that the appropriate federal funds rate is 3.8% at the end of this year, and 3.6 at the end of next.
在預測中位數中，今年實際 GDP 增長 2.2%，明年增長 2.3%。今年 PCE 整體通膨率為 3.6%，明年為 2.3%。失業率維持在 4.3% 左右。預測中位數顯示，與會者認為今年年底的合適聯邦基金利率為 3.8%，明年年底為 3.6%。
Let me turn now to a few words on a key initiative that we're announcing today. I'm appointing a task force in each of five areas that are central to the broad conduct of monetary policy—first, Fed communications. Second, the Fed's balance sheet. Third, our use and reliance on existing data sources. Fourth, productivity and jobs in an era of transformation. And last, the Fed's inflation frameworks.
現在，我想簡單談談我們今天宣佈的一項關鍵舉措。我將在對貨幣政策廣泛執行至關重要的五個核心領域各成立一個工作組：第一，聯準會的溝通機制；第二，聯準會的資產負債表；第三，我們對現有資料來源的使用和依賴；第四，轉型時代的生產率與就業；最後，聯準會的通膨框架。
These subjects are timely, consequential, and worthy of a fresh look. My colleagues and I discussed them with energy and purpose over the last couple of days. For each of these independent task forces I'm enlisting some of the very best minds, both inside and outside the economics profession. They will be supported by subject-matter specialists from our superb Fed staff.
這些課題恰逢其時、影響深遠，值得重新審視。在過去的兩天裡，我和我的同事們充滿活力且目標明確地對這些問題進行了討論。對於這些獨立的工作組，我正在招募經濟學界內外最傑出的一些人才。聯準會優秀的專業員工也將為他們提供各學科的專業支援。
And they'll have a straightforward charge—start with first principles, ask hard questions, examine current practice, consider alternatives, and ultimately propose next steps for policy-maker consideration.
他們的任務非常直接——從第一性原理出發，提出尖銳的問題，審視現有的慣例，尋找替代方案，並最終提出下一步舉措供政策制定者參考。
Since last summer, my colleagues discussed possible improvements in the form and function of Fed communications. This new task force will build on that effort. And I expect, propose well-considered changes, including to the SEP. The second task force, the one on balance sheet policy, will review the benefits and risks of the current ample reserves regime and the composition of the balance sheet.
自去年夏天以來，我的同事們就討論了聯準會溝通形式和功能的潛在改進。這個新的工作組將在此基礎上繼續努力。我期待他們提出深思熟慮的變革方案，包括對 SEP 的修改。第二個關於資產負債表政策的工作組，將評估當前充足準備金框架的利弊與風險，以及資產負債表的結構。
They will assess alternative frameworks for the conduct and operation of monetary policy. The third task force, the one on data, will evaluate new information sources and consider methodological changes to improve data-gathering, with the aim of giving policy-makers more accurate, relevant, contemporaneous, and perhaps most important, actionable information on the state of our economy.
他們將評估貨幣政策傳導和操作的替代框架。第三個關於資料的工作組將評估新的資訊源，並考慮改進資料收集的方法論，旨在為政策制定者提供關於我們經濟狀況的更準確、更相關、更具即時性、以及貨幣最重要的——更具可操作性的資訊。
Fourth, the task force on productivity and jobs—it'll survey the pace, the reach, the economic impact of new general purpose technologies, including AI, and explore the implications for the Fed in pursuit of our employment and inflation mandates.
第四個關於生產率和就業的工作組——它將調研包括人工智慧（AI）在內的通用目的技術的發展速度、普及範圍及經濟影響，並探討這些技術對聯準會履行就業和通膨使命的深遠影響。
The last task force, the one on inflation frameworks—that'll examine the drivers of inflation, first principles, and weigh the full range of ideas for delivering price stability in a changing economy. You'll hear quite a bit more about these task forces and this initiative in the coming weeks. Enough for now to make a simple statement.
最後一個關於通膨框架的工作組——它將深入研究通膨的驅動因素、基本原理，並權衡在不斷變化的經濟中實現物價穩定的全方位設想。在接下來的幾周裡，你們會聽到更多關於這些工作組和這項舉措的資訊。現在點到為止，先做這樣一個簡單的聲明。
Each task force will serve an objective shared by everyone around that table that I sat with over the last couple of days—a Federal Reserve that is clear-eyed about its mission, fit for purpose, and focused on the future. And with that, I appreciate your attention. I'm happy to take your questions.
每個工作組都將服務於過去幾天裡圍坐在會議桌前的每一位成員的共同目標：打造一個對自身使命保持清醒認識、能勝任其職責並著眼於未來的聯準會。謝謝大家的聆聽。現在我很高興回答各位的提問。
問答環節
提問 1
Schneider: Hi, Chair. Good to see you again. And welcome back. This is a lot to be putting in motion so fast. What is the timeline you have in mind for each of these?
施耐德（記者）： 你好，主席。很高興再次見到你，歡迎回來。這麼多舉措這麼快就同時啟動了。你對每個工作組設定的時間表是怎樣的？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: So, I think it'll depend on the task force. It also depends on the urgency in which we need clear answers. My expectation—I'm still in the business of recruiting and finalizing them. My expectation is the task forces will begin work in the next couple of weeks. And we'll start to get some more information from them, some more framing of how they see things starting in the fall, hopefully most if not all concluding by year-end.
華許主席： 我認為這取決於具體的工作組。這也取決於我們迫切需要明確答案的緊急程度。我的預期是——目前我仍處於招募和敲定人員的階段。我預計這些工作組將在未來兩周內開始工作。我們將從秋季開始陸續從他們那裡獲得更多資訊，以及他們對問題的思考框架，並希望大多數（如果不是全部的話）工作組能在年底前結束工作。
提問 2
Schneider: On the inflation framework, you talk about first principles. Does this include a review of the 2% target itself? You mentioned that things to the right of the decimal point don't matter. Should this be starting from a premise that 2% as a point estimate is too strict?
施耐德（記者）： 關於通膨框架，你談到了第一性原理。這是否包括對 2% 目標本身的重新審視？你曾提到小數點右邊的數字並不重要。這是否應該從"2% 作為單一的點估計值過於嚴格"這一前提開始？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: Let me break that into two pieces. On the inflation framework review, their remit is—what are the drivers of inflation. What's the Fed's responsibility for inflation. How do we measure inflation. But that'll overlap with my data group.
華許主席：讓我把這個問題拆成兩部分來回答。關於通膨框架的審查，他們的職責是研究：什麼是通膨的驅動因素；聯準會對通膨負有什麼責任；以及我們如何衡量通膨。不過這部分會與我的資料小組有所重疊。
On the 2% inflation objective, that is the Federal Reserve's long-held objective of 2%. You've heard me say before I tend to focus on the left of the decimal point. The 2 is the left of the decimal point. 0 is to the right. I see no reason, until we have reestablished our commitment and ability to deliver on the 2% inflation objective, to revisit that. So that'll be outside the scope of what we're taking on.
至於 2% 的通膨目標，這是聯準會長期堅持的目標。你們以前聽我說過，我往往傾向於關注小數點左邊的數字。"2"是小數點左邊的數字，"0"在右邊。我認為，在我們重新確立對實現 2% 通膨目標的承諾和能力之前，沒有任何理由去重新審視它。因此，這不在我們此次開展的工作範圍之內。
提問 3
PRESS: Thank you so much. You've said inflation is a choice. In the policy statement, it includes this pledge to deliver price stability. But looking at the SEP, the bulk of your colleagues expect 3.3% for year end, and for the 2% inflation target not to be reached until 2028. So I'm curious how patient you think the Fed can afford to be at this juncture in terms of waiting for one-time inflation waves to wash through. And for inflation to step down after so many years of inflation running above target. And under what circumstances you would support the Fed taking some action and raising rates.
媒體記者： 非常感謝。你曾說過通膨是一種選擇。在政策聲明中，包含了實現物價穩定的承諾。但是看看經濟預測摘要（SEP），你的大多數同事預計年底通膨率為 3.3%，並且直到 2028 年才能達到 2% 的通膨目標。因此我很想知道，在通膨連續多年高於目標之後，你認為聯準會在等待一次性通膨浪潮平息、等待通膨回落這件事上，目前還能保持多大的耐心？在什麼情況下你會支援聯準會採取行動並加息？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: Sure. So, quite a bit there. Let me try to break that into pieces. First, we have the capability and commitment to deliver on our price stability objective of 2%. That's what we're going to do.
華許主席： 好的。這裡面的資訊量很大。讓我試著拆開來回答。首先，我們有能力也有決心實現 2% 的物價穩定目標。這就是我們要做的。
In the Fed's review of its strategy over the last any number of years, in January, the Fed, including the strategy that we're still bound by, the Fed statement says that inflation is primarily determined by monetary policy. You bet it is. I've said for years inflation is a choice. You bet it is.
在聯準會過去多年對自身戰略的審查中（包括我們目前仍受其約束的 1 月份的戰略），聯準會的聲明指出，通膨主要由貨幣政策決定。確實如此。我多年來也一直在說，通膨是一種選擇。確實如此。
And today I'm announcing that this committee unambiguously and unanimously have decided we are going to deliver on that. Rest of your question sounded like an encouragement for me to give forward guidance. We've dropped forward guidance. Some along the committee dropped it, I suspect, from our discussion the last couple of days because they said at this moment in time, it doesn't feel as though providing forward guidance is right.
今天我在此宣佈，本委員會已經明確且一致地決定，我們將實現這一目標。你問題的其餘部分聽起來像是想促使我給出前瞻性指引。但我們已經取消了前瞻性指引。我根據過去幾天的討論推測，委員會中的一些人之所以放棄它，是因為他們認為在當前這個時間節點，提供前瞻性指引似乎並不合適。
Others have, I'd say, different views and think as a general proposition, forward guidance isn't the business we should be in. But that will be taken up by the task force on communications. And my policy maker colleagues, we're going to listen hard to what the experts say and make our own decision. But I can't give you any forward guidance about what we're going to do next. The good news, we'll meet in six weeks.
而另一些人則持不同看法，他們認為從根本上講，前瞻性指引本就不是我們該做的業務。但這將由溝通工作組來處理。我和我的政策制定者同事們將會認真傾聽專家的意見，並做出我們自己的決定。但我現在無法向你們透露任何關於我們下一步行動的前瞻性指引。好消息是，我們六周後還會再開會。
提問 4
PRESS: Following up, I am curious how restrictive you think things are at the current moment, given the flow of data that we've seen, and forecasts that are coming down the pipeline.
媒體記者： 緊接著上一個問題，鑑於我們目前看到的資料流以及即將發佈的預測，我想知道你認為目前的政策限制性達到了什麼程度？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: I've heard characterizations both inside the Fed about that. I'll give you my own. It's uneven. If I look at the housing markets as one example, Fed policy isn't the single determinant of the state of the housing market. But broadly, I would say there, Fed policy appears to be somewhat restrictive.
華許主席： 關於這一點，我在聯準會內部聽到了不同的定性。我向你談談我個人的看法：目前的情況是"不均衡"的。如果以房地產市場為例，聯準會的政策並不是房地產市場狀況的唯一決定因素。但總的來說，我認為在那個領域，聯準會的政策似乎具有一定的限制性。
I would have a hard time managing to say those words if I were to see what's happening in financial markets. I'd say it's uneven. That's perhaps a function of different transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, whether monetary policy is coming from our interest rate tool or our balance sheet tool. But the good news is we have a task force on that, the balance sheet task force will look more at that subject.
但如果看到金融市場發生的情況，我很難說出"具有限制性"這樣的話。所以我說它是不均衡的。這可能是貨幣政策不同傳導機製作用的結果，取決於貨幣政策是來自我們的利率工具還是資產負債表工具。但好消息是，我們對此有一個專門的工作組，資產負債表工作組將進一步研究這一課題。
提問 5
PRESS: You have said you don't like forward guidance. You dropped it from the statement. But with the dot plot, nine members suggested that they want a rate increase by the end of the year. And the markets have taken that as forward guidance. What does this mean in terms of how you guide the markets, and in terms of what the dot plot's future is?
媒體記者： 你曾說過你不喜歡前瞻性指引。你也把它從聲明中刪除了。但在點陣圖中，有 9 名成員暗示他們希望在年底前加息。市場已經將此視為一種前瞻性指引。這對於你如何引導市場，以及點陣圖未來的命運意味著什麼？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: I'm going to have to give you the same answer I gave to Ms. Smith. We've got a task force for that. I'll give you a little bit more. I reviewed the dot plots. And when I saw the submissions, I noted that all the submissions were coming in with pencils—those kind with the big erasers.
華許主席： 我不得不給你和給史密斯女士一樣的回答：我們有一個專門的工作組來負責這個。不過我可以多說一點。我審查了點陣圖。當我看到大家提交的預測時，我注意到所有的預測都是用鉛筆寫的——就是那種帶大橡皮擦的鉛筆。
That'll say that I think my colleagues around the table when they submitted their dots understand the world is changing quite quickly. And they didn't feel bound by them six weeks from now or six days from now. And in any event the circumstances change. I'll note a couple other things.
也就是說，我認為圍坐在桌前的同事們在提交他們的"點"時，心裡很清楚世界變化得非常快。他們並不會覺得自己會被這些"點"綁死，無論是在六周後還是六天後。一旦情況發生變化，他們就會進行調整。我還注意到了另外幾件事。
What I heard around the table was—as they submitted their forecasts—to be clear, they weren't saying this was more likely than not. This was more likely than their other scenarios. So I didn't hear tons of conviction. What I heard was the kind of humility that I think we should have. I did not submit a dot.
在會議桌上我聽到的是——當他們提交預測時，需要明確的是，他們並不是認為這種情況絕對會發生。他們只是認為這比他們的其他假設場景更有可能發生。所以我並沒有聽到多麼堅不可摧的絕對信念。我聽到的是一種謙遜，我認為這是我們應該具備的態度。我本人沒有提交點陣圖。
For me, it's not helpful in the conduct of policy. I suspect by year-end, as I mentioned in my opening statements, there'll be a review about communications broadly—press conferences, dots, meetings and the like, transcripts, minutes. This will be part of that. I don't want to prejudge the outcomes but I'm open-minded about what they could be.
對我而言，它對政策的傳導沒有幫助。正如我在開場白中所說，我懷疑到今年年底，我們將對整個溝通機制進行全面審查——包括新聞發佈會、點陣圖、會議及類似形式、速記文字、會議紀要等。這將是審查的一部分。我不想預判結果，但我對可能出現的結果持開放態度。
I was incredibly impressed over the last couple of days. My colleagues over the last two days, frankly, the first three weeks I've been here, have been very open about changes. Change isn't easy. Change is filled with risk. But our number one goal is to get monetary policy right. The way to get monetary policy right is to deliver on the remit that Congress gave us to deliver on price stability. And there was no disagreement on any of those points.
過去幾天給我留下了極其深刻的印象。坦率地說，在過去的這兩天裡，也就是我來到這裡的頭三周裡，我的同事們對變革態度非常開放。變革並非易事，變革充滿了風險。但我們的第一目標是確保貨幣政策的正確。而確保貨幣政策正確的方法，就是履行國會賦予我們的物價穩定職責。在這些關鍵點上，大家沒有任何分歧。
提問 6
PRESS: At the risk of possibly getting the same answer about task forces, communications. What is your feeling about these news conferences? Are you going to continue one after every meeting? Do you find them useful? What is the future for the way Kevin Warsh will communicate?
媒體記者： 冒著再次聽到關於"工作組"或"溝通機制"相同回答的風險，我想問：你對這些新聞發佈會感覺如何？你打算在每次會議後都繼續舉辦嗎？你認為——或者覺得它們有用嗎？凱文·華許未來的溝通方式會是怎樣的？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: This one probably has another 15 or 20 minutes. I don't want to prejudge the outcome. (Laughter)
華許主席： 這一場新聞發佈會可能還要持續 15 到 20 分鐘。我不想預判之後的結果。（笑聲）
Press conferences can be a very useful way to communicate with households, businesses, and more broadly, through using the likes of you. My mentor's mantra was press conferences are useful, but when you have one, you want to make sure you have something important to say. We have something important to say about our commitment to deliver on price stability, commitment to rethink practices with an eye of moving the Fed forward, and to give you and the American people a sense that these aren't idle thoughts.
新聞發佈會可以是一種與家庭、企業進行溝通的非常有效的手段，並且可以借助你們各位將資訊更廣泛地傳播出去。我導師的格言是：新聞發佈會很有用，但當你召開時，你要確保你確實有重要的事情要說。我們今天確實有重要的事情要說，那就是我們實現物價穩定的承諾、為了聯準會的長遠發展而重新審視現有慣例的承諾，並讓你們和美國人民感覺到這些絕非空話。
These are concrete thoughts that we are going to seek out the best minds, both the best thinking inside of the Federal Reserve, and the best people I know in business and economics, and the academy, and technology, and the rest, to share their views. That's what we're going to be doing in the pursuit of truth. I think we're going to come up with new and interesting things. We made some changes today. I expect more changes to come. And some of those might well be worthy of a press conference.
這些都是具體的設想，我們將集思廣益，向聯準會內部最優秀的智囊，以及我在商界、經濟學界、學術界、科技界等領域所認識的最優秀的人才徵求意見，聽取他們的看法。這就是我們在探尋真理的過程中將要做的事情。我認為我們將提出一些嶄新且有趣的觀點。我們今天做出了一些改變。我預計未來還會有更多的改變。其中一些改變很可能值得再專門開一次新聞發佈會。
提問 7
Press (Chris, Associated Press): Thanks for taking our questions. Could you give us a sense of how you see inflation more in the long term? I know you may not want to comment on the ups and downs. Is this mainly driven by energy prices and the Iran war, or do you have any concerns about underlying inflation pressures in the economy? Thank you.
美聯社記者（克里斯）： 你好。謝謝你回答我們的提問。你能告訴我們你如何看待更長期的通膨嗎？我知道你可能不想評論短期的起起伏伏。這主要是由能源價格和伊朗戰爭引發的，還是你對經濟中潛在的通膨壓力有所擔憂？謝謝。
CHAIRMAN WARSH: So, I can't do much better than the committee just did. So let me restate it. Inflation remains elevated relative to the committee's 2% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. That paragraph goes on to say, to be clear, the Fed will deliver price stability.
華許主席： 這個問題，我無法比委員會剛才發表的表述說得更好了。所以讓我重申一下：相對於委員會 2% 的目標，通膨率仍然高企。這在一定程度上反映了供應鏈衝擊，這些衝擊推高了包括能源在內的某些行業的物價。該段落接著寫道，需要明確的是，聯準會必將實現物價穩定。
My own judgment is the committee spent quite a bit of time not just in two days, but over iterations of a couple weeks. That's what we're prepared to say about inflation. But the commitment to deliver is strong, unanimous, and unambiguous. And that's an important message we've missed for five years. And we're going to fix that.
我個人的判斷是，委員會不僅在這兩天裡，而且在過去幾周的反覆討論中，都花了不少時間在這個問題上。這就是我們準備對通膨發表的看法。但我們實現目標的承諾是堅定的、一致的、明確的。這是我們過去五年來一直忽略的一個重要資訊。而我們現在要糾正這一點。
提問 8
PRESS: Great. On the data task force and everything else, generally speaking, I think people feel the Fed looks at everything already. Certainly that was the sense from before. Is there data that you feel is not given enough weight? You mentioned the trend mean in the past, but that's well known to most Fed members. What is that task force looking at and what might be—I know you don't want to prejudge the outcome, but are there examples of data that you expect might be given more weight? Thank you.
媒體記者： 很好。關於資料工作組和其他方面，總的來說，我認為人們覺得聯準會實際上已經在關注所有指標了。以前大家確實是這種感覺。有沒有那些資料是你覺得沒有被賦予足夠權重的？你過去提到過趨勢均值，但大多數聯準會成員對此都非常瞭解。該工作組正在研究什麼？我知道你不想預判結果，但是有沒有一些例子，是那些你預計可能會被給予更多權重的資料？謝謝。
CHAIRMAN WARSH: So, you're answering my question. So I don't want to prejudge the outcome. I don't want to say too much about what they're going to do because I have a phone call or two to make before I've nailed down the people that are doing that. I'm interested in what the outside experts' view is on the subject.
華許主席： 你這其實是在替我回答問題了（笑）。所以我不想預判結果。我不想對他們將要做的事情說得太多，因為在最終敲定負責這些工作的人選之前，我還得打一兩個電話。我很想知道外部專家對這個課題有什麼看法。
I'll say this generally. Most of the data that central bankers and other government officials in the United States consume come with old-fashioned survey methods. A national account of what the U.S. economy looks like that looks very little like the U.S. economy in 2026.
我想從宏觀上談談。美國央行行長和其他政府官員所使用的大多數資料，都是通過陳舊的抽樣調查方法獲得的。用這種國民帳戶系統描繪出的美國經濟圖景，與 2026 年當下的美國經濟現狀相去甚遠。
Survey methods that don't have the response rates that we need, asking questions that might have been quite applicable a generation ago that are less applicable now. So, even inside of official statistics, I would be open-minded if the task force and our own best thinking had recommendations how those official statistics can be brought up to a standard of our time, using new analytic methods.
這些調查方法的回覆率達不到我們的要求，而且提出的問題可能在一代人以前很適用，但現在已經不那麼適用了。因此，即使在官方統計資料內部，如果工作組和我們自己最優秀的智囊能夠提出建議，利用新的分析方法將這些官方統計資料提高到符合我們時代標準的水平，我也將持非常開放的態度。
And also say this. Almost every private company CEO that's running his or her business are doing so with real-time information. That isn't subject to much revision. That is telling them what just happened at that very moment. As you know, there are normal long and variable lags in the conduct of monetary policy.
我還想說明這一點：幾乎所有管理企業的私營公司 CEO 都是根據即時資訊在運作。這些資訊不會面臨太大的資料修正，它們直接反映了那個時間節點剛剛發生了什麼。如你所知，貨幣政策的傳導通常存在漫長且多變的滯後性。
What we're interested in is what's happening right now. What we're less interested in is echoes of history. You're hearing from my answer that some of the data that we receive, that we're waiting on, the first Friday after the month of payroll index or something else, that might be an echo of history that's quite useful on its third revision.
我們感興趣的是當下正在發生的事情。我們不太感興趣的是歷史的回音。從我的回答中你可以聽出，我們收到並等待著的某些資料（比如月末過後的第一個星期五公佈的非農就業指數等），在經歷第三次資料修正後可能非常有用，但它可能只是歷史的回音。
We need to take those error bounds down because we have to make hard decisions in real time. I'm really open-minded that there is a lot of new data sources that we can learn from the private sector, from reforms in the official sector, and new analytic techniques that are far more refined than asking a simple question about whether something was core or non-core.
我們需要縮小這些誤差範圍，因為我們必須即時做出艱難的決策。我確實持非常開放的態度，我們有很多可以向私營部門借鑑的新資料來源、源自官方部門改革的新管道，以及全新的分析技術，這些技術要比僅僅簡單詢問某項指標是"核心"還是"非核心"要精細得多。
提問 9
PRESS (Fox Business): Thanks. Welcome, Mr. Chairman. If you don't give a lot of ongoing forward guidance—markets have more volatility, and shouldn't Americans have more access to what you're thinking going forward?
福克斯商業頻道記者： 謝謝。歡迎你，主席先生。如果你不提供大量持續的前瞻性指引——市場波動性就會增加，難道美國人民不應該有更多管道來瞭解你對未來的想法嗎？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: I think financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data. I think the financial markets work less efficiently when they ask a question, how will the Federal Reserve react to that incoming information.
華許主席： 我認為金融市場在對新進資料做出反應時表現最好。而當金融市場去糾結"聯準會將對這些新資訊做出何種反應"這個問題時，市場的運轉效率反而會降低。
The more that markets are paying attention to what's happening in the real economy, deciding what's good data and what's less good data, the more financial markets can price what they believe is the most likely and what are the tail risks.
市場越是關注實體經濟中發生的事情，去辨別那些是好資料、那些是次要資料，金融市場就越能對他們認為最可能發生的情況以及尾部風險進行精準的定價。
Financial market prices are probably the most important source of information to guide central bankers. But when all the financial markets are doing is reflecting back what we've said, we're taking the most important source of information and we're being blind to it.
金融市場的價格可能是引導央行行長決策的最重要的資訊來源。但如果金融市場所做的全部事情只是反射我們說的話，我們就是把最重要的資訊源給遮蔽了，變成了瞎子。
I'd like us to create a system where those blinders come off, where markets are following data that they efficiently think is reliable and they'll be watching data, we'll be watching data. They'll come with better information through market prices to us. We can make more informed decisions. Ultimately, the goal I set at the outset, deliver on the price stability objective that Congress told us to do, and that we've got to get in the business of doing.
我希望我們能建立一個系統，把這些眼罩摘掉，讓市場去跟蹤他們認為可靠的資料，他們在觀察資料，我們也在觀察資料。他們將通過市場價格把更好的資訊傳遞給我們。我們就能做出更明智的決定。歸根結底，就是我一開始設定的目標：履行國會吩咐我們去做的物價穩定職責，而我們必須真正投入到這項工作中去。
提問 10
PRESS: This was your first meeting. The board members seem fairly hawkish when you listen—in general, to what they're saying. Was there any discussion of a rate cut going forward today?
媒體記者： 這是你主持的第一次會議。總的來說，聽聽聯準會官員們的言論，他們似乎相當鷹派。今天有沒有討論過未來降息的可能性？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: There was one proposal on the table. There was no discussion of any other proposals. The discussion on that proposal I would say was quite limited. The group was unanimous and unambiguous on it.
華許主席： 擺在桌面上的提案只有一個。沒有對任何其他提案進行討論。我想說，對那項提案的討論也相當有限。整個團隊對此意見一致，態度明確。
It has been the practice of this central bank and others to have a range of alternatives. Today we had one. I thought it furthered discussion, deepened it, and made it clear what we needed to do and how we needed to deliver. I wouldn't prejudge what happens in the future. There was only one big subject for us. We took it on. We had a good family fight on it for a couple of days. And we ended up in a better place.
過去本國央行和其他央行的慣例是提供一系列替代方案。而今天我們只有一個。我認為這推動了討論的深入，並讓我們明確了需要做什麼以及如何實現。我不會預判未來會發生什麼。對我們來說，當時只有一個大議題。我們承擔了下來，內部激烈爭論了兩天，最終達成了一個更好的結果。
提問 11
PRESS (Financial Times): You know, coming to this blind, reading this nice, short statement that we've all appreciated in the room, one might wonder why you didn't raise rates today considering what you're saying here about the risks to U.S. inflation and your mandate. I guess, why not and what would you need to see in order to get to that place? And secondly, on your task forces, are there any best practices of other central banks that you'd consider looking at? Thank you.
金融時報記者： 坦率地說，讀到這份我們在座所有人都很讚賞的、精簡優美的聲明，有人可能會感到疑惑：考慮到你在這裡提到的美國通膨風險和你們的使命，為什麼你們今天沒有加息？我想問，為什麼不加？以及你需要看到什麼才會走到加息那一步？其次，關於你的工作組，是否有其他央行的最佳實踐是你會考慮借鑑的？謝謝。
CHAIRMAN WARSH: I'm glad they're in the practice of giving you two questions. My answer to your first was going to be curt. I've got nothing more to say than the statement itself. To the point of the question I got before, market reactions to what we say unfiltered is more helpful than having delivered a statement, then improvising on it.
華許主席： 我很高興他們有讓你提兩個問題的慣例。我對你第一個問題的回答本來會非常簡短：除了聲明本身，我無可奉告。正如我剛才回答前一個問題時所說，市場對我們未經過濾的話做出的反應，比我們發表了一份聲明、然後又在現場即興發揮要更有幫助。
Best practices in task forces—I've thought about this. I've been on a task force or two in my life. Best practice—find the best minds. Ensure that the task forces have a range of people both by backgrounds and predispositions so they, too, can have a bit of a family fight.
關於工作組的最佳實踐——我思考過這個問題。我一生中也參加過一兩個工作組。最佳實踐就是：尋找最優秀的頭腦。確保工作組內部的人員構成具有多樣性的背景和政策傾向，這樣他們內部也可以進行一些激烈的內部爭論。
Make sure when you establish a task force that the group that's going to be the recipient of the information feels as though they've got some equities in it, too. That's why we're looking for—haven't done the final roll call—some of the most significant talent we have in the building and across the Reserve banks on each of these, and seconding them to this group for a period of some number of months so the leaders of the task force know what the most analytical central bank in the world thinks about that.
還要確保在成立工作組時，未來作為資訊接收方的那個群體，也會覺得自身與此利益攸關。這就是為什麼我們正在每個課題中尋找——雖然還沒完成最終的名單清點——我們在大樓內部以及各地方儲備銀行中最重量級的人才，並將他們借調到這個小組中幾個月，以便工作組的負責人知道世界上最具分析能力的央行是如何看待這些問題的。
They can reflect on it. And a final best practice—we're not outsourcing decisions to anybody. Administrations past and present, reserve banks have chosen a group of 19 people around the table. These will be our decisions. We can agree to some of the recommendations, disagree with others, have a good family fight about it. But what comes from them will—I hope and believe—make the discussion we have internally better, stronger, more of a dialectic so we can deliver on the price stability objective.
他們可以對此進行反思。最後一個最佳實踐是——我們絕不會把決策權外包給任何人。無論是過去的政府還是現在的政府，儲備銀行選出了圍坐在桌子旁的這 19 個人。這些將是我們自己的決定。我們可以同意其中的某些建議，也可以不同意其他建議，內部展開辯論。但他們提出的東西——我希望並相信——將使我們內部的討論變得更好、更強、更具辯證性，從而讓我們能夠實現物價穩定目標。
提問 12
PRESS: If you look at two-year yields, they're suggesting that markets think more tightening is needed. Would that be your read on what the two-year yield is saying as well?
媒體記者： 如果你看一下兩年期國債收益率，它們表明市場認為需要進一步收緊政策。你對兩年期收益率所傳遞的訊號也是這樣解讀的嗎？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: We were in such a good place. This is why we don't do third questions. I'm not going to offer any commentary on market reaction over the last 30 or 60 minutes.
華許主席： 我們剛才的氣氛多好啊。這就是為什麼我們不讚成提第三個問題的原因（笑）。我不會對過去 30 或 60 分鐘內的市場反應做出任何評論。
What we've given markets is a new chapter for the central bank, some fresh thinking. What we've given markets and households and businesses, I think, is a commitment to ask ourselves hard questions such that we can deliver on the promises that we've made before. This is a lot of change for financial markets to digest.
我們給市場帶來的是央行的新篇章和一些全新的思考。我認為，我們帶給市場、家庭和企業的是一種承諾，即我們會向自己提出尖銳的問題，以便能夠兌現我們此前做出的承諾。對金融市場來說，這需要消化大量的變化。
I wouldn't be particularly intrigued by how they react in the first several minutes or even first several days. What I think's most important is that financial markets—and at least as important, households and businesses know that this central bank will deliver on price stability.
我不會特別去關注他們在最初幾分鐘甚至最初幾天的反應。我認為最重要的是，金融市場——以及同樣重要的家庭和企業——知道這家中央銀行必將實現物價穩定。
提問 13
PRESS (Brian, NBC News): When you say we've dropped forward guidance, for the layperson that might sound like the Fed's going to say less or offer less insight into where their costs might go. For the person you might run into at the grocery store where the price tags are rising faster than wages, how would you explain it to them? I don't know if task force might be an answer. How might you communicate this chapter of the Fed?
NBC 新聞記者（布萊恩）： 你好。當你提到我們取消了前瞻性指引時，對門外漢來說，這聽起來像是聯準會準備少說話，或者減少對未來成本走向的透露。對於你在雜貨店可能遇到的、面對標籤上漲速度快於工資漲幅的普通人，你會怎麼向他們解釋？我不知道"工作組"會不會是個答案。你會如何溝通聯準會的這一新篇章？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: If I told somebody in the milk aisle I had a task force, I think that would be doing a poor job. I appreciate it. (Laughter)
華許主席： 如果我在牛奶貨架旁告訴某人我成立了一個工作組，我想那我的工作做得就太糟糕了。謝謝你的提問。（笑聲）
If I saw somebody in the grocery store, what I would say to them is that we cannot have a very significant effect on particular prices. The price of oil in the markets or the price of a dozen eggs does not have first-order consequences to what we're doing. But we have an important job there. And it's to make sure that those changes in oil, or beef, or eggs, or milk don't broaden in the economy, don't have second and third-order effects. That's our commitment, our capability, and we're going to deliver on it.
如果我在雜貨店遇到某人，我會對他們說，我們無法對某些具體物價產生直接且重大的影響。市場上的石油價格或一打雞蛋的價格，對我們正在做的事情並不構成一階影響。但我們有一項重要的工作，那就是確保石油、牛肉、雞蛋或牛奶的這些價格變動不會在整個經濟中氾濫，不會產生二階和三階效應。這就是我們的承諾，也是我們的能力，我們一定會兌現它。
提問 14
PRESS: Is the Fed's relationship with the Treasury also under review? There's the normal breakfast meetings with the Treasury secretary. Do you intend to continue that? Have you had conversations with the President since your swearing-in?
媒體記者： 聯準會與財政部的關係是否也在審查之中？你們通常會與財政部長舉行定期的早餐會。你打算繼續這種做法嗎？自宣誓就職以來，你與總統交談過嗎？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: On the President, I don't have anything. With respect to the Treasury secretary, he has been posting pictures of the breakfast. The tradition is we meet weekly. I think we've pulled off three of those so far. I believe he's overseas this week. This will be the exception. I think they're very useful discussions.
華許主席： 關於總統，我沒有什麼可透露的。至於財政部長，他一直在發佈早餐會的照片。我們的傳統是每周會面一次。我想截至目前我們已經成功舉行了三次。我相信他這周在國外。這周是個例外。我認為這些是非常有益的討論。
The central bank's objectives, and our roles and responsibilities are delineated from the fiscal authorities. In my view, monetary policy is independent in the conduct of what we do. That doesn't mean we're not interested in what's happening with the fiscal authorities.
中央銀行的目標以及我們的角色和職責與財政當局是有清晰界限的。在我看來，貨幣政策在我們的運作中是獨立的。但這並不意味著我們對財政當局發生的事情不感興趣。
The way I think about it is this central bank needs to have a wide lens, but a narrow remit. We need to be quite interested in what's happening in the world. I won't be breaking any news here to suggest I'm quite interested in what's happening in the Middle East. That has some effect on our day job. It doesn't mean it's our responsibility. But I think we're going to keep a wide lens and my meetings with the secretary to this point have helped widen that aperture. So we're aware of things that could affect our day job, even if it isn't.
我的思考方式是：這家中央銀行需要擁有廣闊的視野，但職責要保持聚焦。我們需要對世界上發生的事情保持濃厚的興趣。在這裡，如果我說我對中東發生的事情非常關注，這算不上什麼新聞。這確實對我們的日常工作產生了一些影響。這並不意味著那是我們的責任。但我認為我們將保持廣闊的視野，到目前為止，我與部長的會面有助於擴大這一視野。因此，我們能夠覺察到那些可能影響我們日常工作的事情，即使它們本身並不屬於我們的法定職責。
提問 15
PRESS (Steve, CNBC): Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for taking my question. You had said—before you became Chairman—that you thought productivity was a reason why the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates. Do you still believe that to be the case?
CNBC 記者（史蒂夫）： 謝謝主席先生回答我的提問。在你成為主席之前，你曾說過你認為生產率是聯準會可以降低利率的一個原因。你現在仍然認為情況是這樣嗎？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: So, the committee had a discussion of productivity today. AI came up. The way I thought about it before, and socialized with the group, is that artificial intelligence, the latest generation of general purpose technology, is perhaps as important a change in the economy and business and households as we've had in my adult lifetime.
華許主席： 委員會今天確實對生產率進行了討論。期間提到了人工智慧。我之前的想法以及我向團隊傳達的觀點是：人工智慧作為最新一代的通用目的技術，其對經濟、商業和家庭帶來的變革，可能是我成年以來所見過的最重要的變化。
It is filled with both a huge opportunity and with risks. I take both of those very seriously. You may have heard me say before that AI is shorthand perhaps for American ingenuity. That doesn't mean that it's going to be easy. It doesn't mean it's not going to be disruptive. But over the long term, my conviction—and I heard quite a bit of support for this around the committee today—is the United States is a winner as we go down this.
它既充滿了巨大的機遇，也伴隨著風險。我對這兩者都非常重視。你們以前可能聽我說過，AI 或許是"美國獨創性"（American Ingenuity）的縮寫。這並不意味著過程會一帆風順，也不意味著它不會帶來顛覆。但從長遠來看，我的信念是——而且我今天在委員會內部也聽到了相當多的支援聲音——在這條道路上，美國將是一個贏家。
The United States is ultimately going to be better off in that. To bring that back to the conduct of policy, timing, scale, speed, implications for output and employment—it's one of the things we have a task force to do.
美國最終將因此變得更好。把這個話題拉回到政策執行上，它的時間節點、規模、速度以及對產出和就業的影響——這正是我們成立工作組要去研究的課題之一。
提問 16
PRESS: If you don't mind a follow-up from the other side, when you look at the strong job growth that's out there, the elevated inflation, GDP seems to be going pretty good, the stock market seems to be soaring. Do you look around this economy and see the funds rate being restrictive?
媒體記者： 如果你不介意我從反面追問一下：當你看到目前強勁的就業增長、高企的通膨、表現相當不錯的 GDP，以及似乎正在飆升的股市。你環顧當前的經濟現狀，是否覺得聯邦基金利率具有限制性？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: So, that's your second question. I'm going to give the same answer that I gave before. I'd say as I think about the conduct of policy, what matters is what's the effect of policy. Not what do we say but what happens. The best way I can describe it is uneven. I see some restrictiveness in things like housing. It's hard to use those same words anywhere else.
華許主席： 這是你的第二個問題了。我要給出和之前一樣的回答。我想說，當我思考政策的傳導時，真正重要的是政策產生的"效果"。不是我們說了什麼，而是發生了什麼。我能描述它的最好方式就是"不均衡"。我看到在房地產等方面確實存在一些限制性。但在其他任何地方，都很難用同樣的詞來形容。
I'll just make one other point. You talked about one of our dual mandates and the employment side. I don't believe that we have a cruel choice. I don't share the view that was expressed a few generations ago that Federal Reserve chairmen show up at a podium and say you've got to choose. And you're going to have to decide whether you're willing to tolerate higher inflation to put more people at work.
我只想再說明一點。你談到了我們的雙重使命之一，即就業層面。我不相信我們面臨著一個殘酷的抉擇。幾代人以前曾有一種觀點，即聯準會主席站在講台前對大家說你必須做出選擇，你必須決定是否願意容忍更高的通膨以讓更多人就業——我不贊同這種看法。
I don't believe in that. What I believe is if we do our job, we can make strong growth, low prices, and strong employment mutually compatible. So what you heard from the committee today is we've got some work to do on the price stability front.
我不相信那一套。我的信念是，如果我們做好自己的工作，我們可以讓強勁的增長、低廉的物價和穩固的就業相互相容。所以你今天從委員會聽到的資訊是，我們在物價穩定方面還有一些工作要做。
提問 17
PRESS (Nick, Wall Street Journal): Chairman, you've said repeatedly, credibility is earned by delivering. If credibility requires delivering, the move would be to tighten or threaten to. You didn't do that today. Why not?
華爾街日報記者（尼克）： 謝謝。主席，你反覆說過，公信力是通過踐行承諾來贏得的。如果公信力需要通過結果來證明，那麼正確的舉措應該是收緊政策或發出收緊的威脅。但你今天沒有這麼做。為什麼？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: That judgment you expressed was not expressed by any of the 19 people around the table. We'll be meeting in six weeks. We'll take up the issue again.
華許主席： 你剛才表達的那個觀點，圍坐在桌旁的 19 個人中沒有任何一個人提出來。我們將在六周後再次會面。屆時我們將重新討論這個問題。
提問 18
PRESS: If I could ask about AI, the buildout is generating enormous demand, CapEx, data centers, power. The productivity payoff may be further out. In your judgment, is AI adding more to demand or to supply today?
媒體記者： 如果我可以問一個關於 AI 的問題：AI 的建設正在產生巨大的需求、資本支出、資料中心和電力消耗。而生產率的回報可能會在更遠的未來。在你的判斷中，AI 今天是對需求端的貢獻更大，還是對供應端的貢獻更大？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: That's a good question. At the central bank in the economics profession, what we spend most of our time doing is counting demand. It's easier. We can see it, we can count it, we can check it, we can revise it.
華許主席： 這是一個好問題。在中央銀行和經濟學界，我們花大部分時間做的事情是統計需求。這更容易。我們可以看到它、計算它、核對它、修正它。
What we do is we infer supply. You'll notice in the second paragraph of what one of your colleagues described as a short statement, we have a sentence on the demand side and a sentence about the same length on the supply side. They're both important. Just because we can count one better than the other doesn't mean we're going to favor one more than the other.
而我們做的是推導供應。你會注意到，在被你的同事形容為精簡的聲明的第二段中，我們用了一句話寫需求端，用了一句大約同樣長度的話寫供應端。它們都很重要。不能僅僅因為我們能把其中一個算得更準，就意味著我們要更偏向其中一個。
With respect to AI and the growth of data centers and infrastructure around it, we're counting the demand side. And it is no doubt showing up in GDP figures. We can be less certain when we infer the timing and extent of the growth on the supply side. It may be an intuition the supply side is going to expand but it'll take longer.
對於人工智慧以及資料中心和相關基礎設施的增長，我們正在統計其需求端。毫無疑問，這已經體現在 GDP 資料中了。但當我們推導供應端的增長時機和程度時，我們的把握就沒那麼大了。直覺上供應端將會擴大，但這需要更長的時間。
I just describe it this way. There's a race between supply and demand. Milton says the only thing we know about economics is there's a supply line, and a demand line, and they ultimately cross. When they cross and what are the implications for policy? The good news for you is we have a task force for that.
我打算這樣來描述它：這是供應和需求之間的一場賽跑。米爾頓（佛里曼）說過，我們對經濟學唯一瞭解的就是有一條供應線和一條需求線，它們最終會交叉。它們何時交叉，對政策又有什麼影響？對你來說好消息是，我們有一個專門的工作組來研究這個問題。
提問 19
PRESS: Thanks, Mr. Chairman. It sounded like on the task force on data that you were looking at overhauling or completely overhauling the system of national accounts, the way that government measures the economy. Is that your ambition?
媒體記者： 謝謝主席先生。聽起來在資料工作組方面，你似乎打算徹底改革或徹底重構國民帳戶體系，也就是政府統計經濟的方式。這是你的雄心壯志嗎？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: In a word, no. In a few words, much of this data-gathering happens in other government agencies to which we owe a tremendous amount of respect, tremendous amount of deference.
華許主席： 用一個詞回答：不想。多說幾句的話：大部分資料的收集工作是在其他政府機構進行的，我們對這些機構表示極大的尊重和由衷的敬意。
But if in the course of this we come up with recommendations which Fed staff have already begun to develop about things that they could be doing to help inform us as policymakers, we're not going to hesitate.
但在這一過程中，如果我們提出了聯準會工作人員已經開始著手制定的建議，即他們可以採取那些措施來更好地為我們這些政策制定者提供資訊，我們絕不會猶豫。
I don't want to try to delineate the research, but there will be statistics. And a view of bringing the best practices from the private sector and new tools made possible by AI to forge these into a fabric that gives us better real-time information. So as I mentioned before, when we're making decisions, we're making decisions based on what we'd say are real contemporaneous data, not data that we call contemporaneous that's an echo of history.
我不想去刻意界定研究的範圍，但一定會有統計資料的支撐。我們的願景是引入來自私營部門的最佳實踐，以及由人工智慧技術帶來的全新工具，將它們編織成一個網路，為我們提供更優質的即時資訊。正如我之前所說，當我們在做決策時，我們要依據真正具有時代同步性的即時資料，而不是那些我們名義上稱之為即時、實則是歷史回音的資料。
提問 20
PRESS: Related to the building renovations, are you considering changes to the renovations, the projects, in light of the fact that they became a political football?
媒體記者： 關於大樓翻新工程，鑑於這些項目已經變成了政治足球（兩黨爭鬥的焦點），你是否正在考慮對這些翻新項目進行調整？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: I heard something about that. I don't think I'm breaking any news, but my view when you show up at a new institution, you should meet with the inspector general as a matter of good practice. It's a practice I hope to continue. I've had one meeting with the inspector general. And he told me what I believe the world knows, which is he'll be coming out with a report on the building and the building projects later this summer.
華許主席： 我聽過一些傳聞。我想這不算什麼新聞，但我認為當你來到一個新機構時，作為一種良好的慣例，你應該先與監察長見個面。我希望延續這一慣例。我已經和監察長見了一面。他告訴了我一件我認為大家都知道的事情：他將在今年夏天晚些時候發佈一份關於大樓及大樓改建項目的報告。
And I'll be interested in reading the report. From my perspective, with a forward-looking glance, is there anything that we can be doing or should be doing from this moment until the completion of the project to do what we can do to be good stewards of taxpayer money and make sure that we're delivering on the promises that we made.
我對閱讀這份報告很感興趣。從我的角度來看，秉持向前看的目光，從現在這一刻起到項目最終竣工，我們能做些什麼或應該做些什麼，從而盡最大努力當好納稅人資金的守護者，並確保我們履行了過去做出的承諾。
More work to do. You might not be surprised I've been preoccupied on other matters, but I promise to get to the full breadth of the Fed's tasks in the weeks ahead.
還有很多工作要做。你可能不會感到意外，我最近一直專注於其他事務，但我保證在接下來的幾周裡，會全面著手處理聯準會的各項職責。
提問 21
Victoria (Politico): Hi, Politico. So, I know that you did not submit a forecast, but you are the person who is authorized to speak on behalf of the FOMC. I'm wondering if you could tell us in the SEP, the increase in expectations for inflation. Is that all because of the Iran war? What was the discussion around the expectations for inflation being higher and also potentially growth being slower?
維多利亞（Politico 記者）： 你好。我知道你沒有提交預測，但你是獲得授權代表 FOMC 發言的人。我想知道你是否能告訴我們，在 SEP 中，對通膨預期的上升是否完全是因為伊朗戰爭？關於通膨預期走高、同時經濟增長可能放緩的討論是怎樣的？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: So, my read of what I heard in the room reflected, I must admit, in the SEP is half of my colleagues thought the policy rate, given those developments, should be at this level or lower between now and year-end and the other half thought higher. That 19th voter was me, and I didn't submit.
華許主席： 我必須承認，我對在會議室裡聽到的意見的解讀反映在 SEP 中就是：鑑於這些新發展，我有一半的同事認為從現在到年底政策利率應該維持在當前水平或更低，而另一半同事則認為應該更高。而那第 19 位投票人是我，但我沒有提交。
There's a range of questions on first and second-round effects. No resolution or conviction. But we'll be meeting again in six weeks. I think we're going to know more then. And I think that my colleagues are very attentive to incoming developments between now and then.
關於一階和二階效應存在著各種各樣的問題。目前還沒有最終的定論或壓倒性的普遍共識。但我們將在六周後再次開會。我認為到那時我們會瞭解更多。而且我相信我的同事們在這期間會非常關注新情況的發展。
提問 22
Victoria (Politico): You said that you're still encouraging your fellow committee members to submit forecasts even if you're not doing it. What do you think is the benefit of them doing it even if you don't?
維多利亞（Politico 記者）： 你說即使你自己不寫預測，你仍然鼓勵你的委員會同事去提交。你認為即使你不做，他們這樣做的益處是什麼？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: That's the commitment that the FOMC made. And it's a commitment that I hope we live up to. Like price stability, I expect us to live up to it. By the time we get to the end of this year, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a new communications framework, there were some changes to the SEP. That's a committee discussion, a robust discussion. I think we'll have it.
華許主席： 這是 FOMC 之前做出的承諾。也是一個我希望我們能履行的承諾。就像物價穩定一樣，我期待我們能不辱使命。到今年年底，如果出現了一個新的溝通框架，或者 SEP 發生了一些變化，我不會感到意外。這是委員會的討論，是一場非常充分的討論。我認為我們會進行的。
I believe we're going to come to a better mix of communications to deliver on what we promised. But I don't want to prejudge what those are. I would continue to expect colleagues to submit their SEPs. Some of them, I think, believe that the practice as currently structured is okay. I heard a lot of interest in reform, generally about all of these topics.
我相信我們將找到一種更好的溝通組合方式，來兌現我們的承諾。但我不想預先判斷那些形式會是什麼。我會繼續期待同事們提交他們的 SEP。我想，他們中的一些人認為目前的結構和慣例是可以接受的。但我聽到了對這些所有話題進行全面改革的濃厚興趣。
You didn't ask, but I'll answer. It was a pretty gracious couple of days. And it's been a pretty warm few weeks. The institution wants to figure out how we can do better. The institution's going back to first principles. And I'm encouraged that what we've done in the statement, what we're thinking about doing with respect to the SEP, that instinct towards a new chapter is a real one.
你沒問這個，但我還是想說。過去這兩天大家非常寬容和友善。過去的幾周也讓人倍感溫暖。這個機構本身渴望找出我們如何能做得更好。整個機構正在回歸到第一性原理。令我備受鼓舞的是，我們在政策聲明中已經做出的改變，以及我們正在考慮的針對 SEP 的調整，這種邁向新篇章的本能反應是非常真實具體的。
By the end of the year, I hope we can put some points on the board both in form and in substance of delivering.
到今年年底，我希望我們在形式上和實質性的履職成果上都能取得一些實實在在的成績（在記分牌上得分）。
提問 23
PRESS: Could you guide us through some of the principles that guide your own reaction function and tell us about conditions that you think, when the Fed should respond?
媒體記者： 你能引導我們瞭解一下引導你個人"反應函數"的某些原則，並告訴我們你認為聯準會在什麼樣的情況下應當做出回應嗎？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: It's going to be a very unsatisfactory answer to the final question. The Federal Reserve has a lot of responsibilities, not just in monetary policy, but in supervision and regulation, consumer affairs, and payments. My own view is our credibility comes from delivering on what we're saying we're going to do across everything we do.
華許主席： 作為最後一個問題，這可能是一個讓人很不滿意的回答。聯準會肩負著許多職責，不僅在貨幣政策方面，還在監督管理、消費者事務和支付系統方面。我個人的觀點是，我們的公信力來自於在我們所做的每一項工作中都能踐行我們的諾言。
I've devoted more time in my first three weeks to monetary policy than all those things, but the more we deliver on our promises and are good supervisors and regulators, the more benefit we get, the more credibility enhancement we have in monetary policy.
在我就職的前三周裡，我花在貨幣政策上的時間比這些事務的總和還要多。但我們在履行承諾上做得越好，成為越出色的監督者和監管者，我們獲得的回報就越多，我們在貨幣政策上的公信力提升也就越大。
When we deliver on our price stability objectives, which we will, the American people will feel as though the hardships that they've been living through in part because of inflation the last five years are in the rearview mirror, and that credibility will have dividends across what we do. And the institution will come to press conferences like this always with an impetus to reform, always with an impetus to do better. But we're going to put some points on the board.
當我們實現了物價穩定目標時（我們一定會做到的），美國人民就會覺得，過去五年中因通膨而經歷的種種艱難困苦都已經成為了過去。而這種公信力將在我們開展的所有業務中產生紅利。媒體機構來到這樣舉行的新聞發佈會時，將始終帶著一種推動改革、做大做好的動力。我們會取得實實在在的成績。
提問 24
PRESS: Given the labor data in recent months, how would you sum up the labor market right now? Do you see it as stable, or as a source of inflation?
媒體記者： 鑑於最近幾個月的勞動力資料，你如何總結目前的勞動力市場？你認為它是穩定的，還是通膨的源頭？
CHAIRMAN WARSH: So the committee, if I were to try to capture how the committee thought about it, the committee thought the labor markets were stable. There were some people around the committee who thought that it was trending better than that. Trends matter more than data points. What's happening over three or six months matters more than any one data point, any one data release.
華許主席： 如果要我試著概括一下委員會的看法，委員會認為勞動力市場是穩定的。委員會中有一些人認為目前的趨勢甚至比穩定還要好。趨勢比單一的資料點更重要。三個月或六個月內發生的情況，比任何單一的資料點或任何單次發佈的資料都要關鍵。
And I'd say the jobs data has been moving in a good direction. If I heard one other thing around that subject over the course of the last couple of days, what I heard was that strong productivity-led growth is not something that we fear, but something we embrace. Thank you all very much.
我想說，就業資料一直朝著好的方向發展。如果在過去兩天的會議中，我還聽到了關於這個課題的其他意見，那就是：由強勁生產率拉動的經濟增長絕非我們所恐懼的事情，而是我們欣然擁抱的事情。 (智堡Mikko)