America’s bull market has entered its manic phase
美國牛市已經進入狂熱階段
Options markets show optimism is giving way to euphoria
期權市場顯示，樂觀情緒正在讓位於亢奮
For most of the past couple of years the best argument that American stocks were not in a bubble was that things simply didn’t feel manic enough. Yes, prices had soared, and yes, valuations had risen so high that shareholders’ expected future returns were looking increasingly disappointing. Yes, the odds of unexpected returns were receding as well, with more or less everyone already convinced that corporate earnings would keep rocketing up while artificial intelligence revolutionised the economy.
在過去兩年中的大部分時間裡，認為美股並未處於泡沫中的最佳論據是：市場感覺還不夠瘋狂。沒錯，股價已經飆升；沒錯，估值已經升到很高，以至於股東未來預期回報看起來越來越令人失望。沒錯，獲得意外超額回報的機會也在減少，因為幾乎所有人都已經相信，企業盈利會持續暴漲，而人工智慧將徹底改變經濟。
But a proper bubble needs more. It is not enough for investors merely to book tomorrow’s profits today. Share prices really come unstuck from reality only after a mania takes hold. Then comes the grim doggedness of revellers who know the next morning’s hangover will be dreadful and are determined to put it off for as long as possible. Then, when it no longer can be, comes the crash.
但一個真正的泡沫需要更多條件。投資者僅僅把明天的利潤提前計入今天的價格，還不夠。只有當狂熱真正佔據市場時，股價才會徹底脫離現實。接下來出現的是狂歡者那種陰沉而頑固的堅持：他們明知道第二天早上的宿醉會非常痛苦，卻決心儘可能久地拖延它。然後，當再也拖不下去時，崩盤就會到來。
Has the manic phase now arrived? Imagine telling a time-traveller from a decade ago that on June 11th SpaceX sold shares which valued it at $1.8trn, over 90 times its annual revenue. Mad? No—a fantastic deal for buyers, since the rocketry firm’s bankers reportedly told them it would increase its AI arm’s sales by a factor of 100 by 2030, to $322bn. Why the focus on revenue rather than the conventional way of valuing a company, relative to profits? Because SpaceX doesn’t make any; last year it lost $5bn. Four trading days after its listing its share price had risen by over 40%, valuing it at $2.5trn. In the meantime it agreed to pay $60bn in shares for Cursor, an AI-coding firm.
那麼，狂熱階段現在已經到來了嗎？想像一下，如果你告訴十年前穿越而來的人：6 月 11 日，SpaceX 出售股票，對公司的估值達到 1.8 兆美元，是其年收入的 90 多倍。瘋了嗎？不——對買家來說這是一筆極好的交易，因為據報導，這家火箭公司的投行告訴他們，到 2030 年，SpaceX 的 AI 部門銷售額將增長 100 倍，達到 3220 億美元。為什麼關注收入，而不是按照傳統方式相對於利潤來估值？因為 SpaceX 沒有利潤；去年它虧損了 50 億美元。上市四個交易日後，其股價上漲超過 40%，估值達到 2.5 兆美元。與此同時，它還同意以 600 億美元股票收購 AI 程式設計公司 Cursor。
Some may argue, not unreasonably, that this is down to the seeming ability of Elon Musk, SpaceX’s founder, to distort both financial markets and reality. But investors’ euphoria extends far beyond the world’s first trillionaire. American shares, proxied by the S&P 500 index, are only a hair less expensive relative to long-run earnings than they were even at the peak of the dotcom bubble in 2000. This week prices popped again after President Donald Trump at last really did seem to strike a peace deal with Iran.
有些人可能會合理地認為，這要歸因於 SpaceX 創始人 Elon Musk 似乎擁有扭曲金融市場和現實的能力。但投資者的亢奮情緒遠遠不止於這位世界首位兆富翁。以 S&P 500 指數作為代表，美國股票相對於長期盈利的價格，只比 2000 年網際網路泡沫頂峰時便宜一點點。本周，在 Donald Trump 總統似乎終於真的與伊朗達成和平協議後，股價再次上漲。
For the clearest demonstration of investors’ manic mood, look beyond the stock market to the trade in options. These are often described as insurance contracts: a simple “put” option, for instance, confers the right but not the obligation to sell a stock for a set “strike” price on an expiry date. This allows an investor to own the stock while limiting losses should prices crash—in return for paying to buy the option in the first place.
要最清楚地看到投資者的狂熱情緒，不妨把目光從股票市場轉向期權交易。期權常被描述為保險合約：例如，一個簡單的“看跌期權”賦予持有人在到期日以設定的“行權價”出售股票的權利，但沒有義務。這樣，投資者可以繼續持有股票，同時在股價暴跌時限制損失，代價是一開始必須支付購買期權的費用。
Today, however, much of the options market is better understood as a casino in which punters gamble on stock prices. Another way of describing a put option, after all, is as a bet that on its expiry date the underlying stock’s market price will be below the strike. If it is, you can buy the stock at the market price, sell it for the higher strike and pocket the difference. Otherwise, you let the option expire worthless and lose whatever you paid for it. Conversely, a “call” option, which confers the right to buy rather than sell a stock, is a bet on prices going up.
然而，如今期權市場的很大一部分，更應該被理解為一個賭場，賭客在裡面押注股價。畢竟，看跌期權的另一種說法是：你在賭到期日時，標的股票的市場價格會低於行權價。如果確實如此，你就可以按市場價買入股票，再以更高的行權價賣出，從中賺取差價。否則，你就讓期權毫無價值地到期，損失當初為它支付的費用。相反，“看漲期權”賦予的是買入而不是賣出股票的權利，本質上是在押注價格上漲。
Trading in stock options has boomed. Volumes recorded in 2025 by OCC, a big American clearing house, were nearly double those in 2020, itself a blow-out year. In 2026 they are on course to be higher still. And trading in ultra-short contracts, which are great for gambling but almost useless as insurance, has expanded even faster. CME Group, a derivatives exchange, reckons that transactions for options on the S&P 500 index that expired on the same day were 3.7 times higher in 2025 than in 2021.
股票期權交易已經蓬勃發展。美國大型清算機構 OCC 記錄的 2025 年交易量，幾乎是 2020 年的兩倍，而 2020 年本身已經是爆發性增長的一年。到 2026 年，交易量有望進一步提高。超短期期權合約的交易擴張更快，這類合約非常適合賭博，但作為保險幾乎毫無用處。衍生品交易所 CME Group 估計，2025 年當天到期的 S&P 500 指數期權交易量，是 2021 年的 3.7 倍。
In spite of all this, the insurance function of options still ought to mean that puts are more in demand than calls. Few institutional investors need to insure themselves against a sudden jump in prices; lots, imagine a university endowment, need protection against crashes. What is more, markets tend to rise slowly but plunge quickly, making puts more valuable than equivalent calls. And the institutions seeking such insurance are generally far bigger than the speculators looking for a quick flutter, and thus move the market more.
儘管如此，期權的保險功能本應意味著，看跌期權的需求高於看漲期權。很少有機構投資者需要為價格突然上漲購買保險；但許多機構，例如大學捐贈基金，都需要防範市場崩盤。更重要的是，市場往往緩慢上漲，卻快速暴跌，這使得看跌期權比同等條件的看漲期權更有價值。而尋求這類保險的機構通常遠比那些想短線賭一把的投機者規模更大，因此對市場影響也更大。
So it is remarkable that the average call option for stocks in the tech-heavy NASDAQ index is now almost as expensive as the average put. It means the casino crowd is trading so furiously that its activity outweighs that of the much larger insurance buyers—and it is betting that prices will go to the Moon, or Mars. The party is entering the phase where things get out of hand. It may stay there for a while. But the longer the hangover is put off, the more it will hurt.
因此，令人驚訝的是，以科技股為主的 NASDAQ 指數中，股票的平均看漲期權價格如今幾乎與平均看跌期權一樣貴。這意味著賭場人群交易得如此瘋狂，以至於他們的活動壓過了規模更大的保險買家；而他們押注的是，股價會衝向月球，甚至火星。這場派對正在進入失控階段。它可能會在那裡停留一段時間。但宿醉拖得越久，最後就會越痛。 (經濟學商業人評論)