7月的A股市場，震盪不斷，恐慌情緒有所蔓延。
上證指數從高位回落，創業板指與科創50指數更是經歷了一輪劇烈調整。截至7月下旬，科創50指數最大回撤達27%，創業板指回撤23%，科技成長類股成為本輪調整的重災區。
那麼，這輪調整究竟還會持續多久？什麼時候開始反彈？
The A-share market has witnessed wild volatility in July amid spreading market panic.
The Shanghai Composite Index has retreated from recent highs, while the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 Index have undergone sharp corrections. As of late July, the STAR 50 recorded a maximum drawdown of 27%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 23%. Technology growth stocks bore the brunt of the sell-off.
How much longer will this correction last? When will a rebound emerge?
首先，高位賽道估值需要進入消化期。上半年，市場主線高度集中於AI算力、記憶體晶片、光模組等科技賽道，大量個股持續走高，部分類股估值快速攀升，提前透支了未來一兩年的業績增長預期。進入7月，A股迎來半年報集中披露窗口，市場定價邏輯開始從追逐產業預期，轉向考驗真實盈利兌現能力。一旦部分公司業績增速未能匹配過高估值，前期湧入的資金選擇落袋為安。大量籌碼集中賣出，形成類股層面的集中回呼，成為市場走弱最核心的內因。
其次，市場進入存量資金互相騰挪的局面。上半年支撐行情的增量資金節奏放緩，場內資金進入存量博弈，流動性邊際收緊。一方面，長鑫科技等大型IPO持續推進，將形成虹吸效應，資金開始做騰挪準備；另一方面，在半年度的節點，公募、私募機構通常會進行持倉復盤和結構調倉，減持漲幅巨大的成長標的，向低估值防禦類股轉移。同時，在市場信心偏弱時，兩市成交額持續萎縮，觀望情緒上升，增量資金遲遲不願進場，進一步制約指數反彈。
First, valuations of high-flying sectors are due for correction. In the first half of the year, market momentum centered heavily on technology tracks including AI computing power, memory chips and optical modules. Numerous stocks surged, with valuations in some sectors rising rapidly and pricing in earnings growth expectations for the next one to two years in advance. As A-shares enter the concentrated semi-annual report disclosure window in July, the market’s pricing logic has shifted from chasing industrial prospects to testing actual profitability. Where corporate earnings fail to justify lofty valuations, early investors opt to lock in profits. Massive sell-offs trigger sector-wide pullbacks, constituting the core internal driver of market weakness.
Second, the market is dominated by capital rotation within existing funds. Inflows that fueled the rally in the first half slowed, leading to stock game trading and marginal liquidity tightening. On one hand, large IPOs such as ChangXin Technologies create capital siphoning effects, prompting fund reallocation. On the other hand, at the mid-year mark, public and private fund institutions review portfolios and adjust positions, trimming heavily appreciated growth stocks and shifting toward undervalued defensive sectors. Meanwhile, amid fragile market sentiment, trading volumes keep shrinking as investors stay on the sidelines. The absence of fresh capital further limits index rebounds.
再者，海外流動性預期收緊形成估值壓制。 6月歐洲央行加息25個基點，日本央行重啟加息處理程序，聯準會雖然維持利率不變，但釋放了超預期的緊縮訊號。海外無風險利率中樞抬升，對權益資產估值形成壓制，外資流出壓力加大。資料顯示，7月初TMT類股成交額佔比一度超過45%，科技成長類股已反映出較為樂觀的長期預期，這種高擁擠度的市場結構削弱了A股抵禦外部衝擊的能力。
另外，全球科技類股的共振調整也是重要的外部誘因。 7月中旬，韓國股市在去槓桿環境下出現大幅調整，三星電子和SK海力士近一個月最高跌幅達三成左右，觸發熔斷機制。作為全球AI產業鏈的重要一環，韓國股市的劇烈波動迅速傳染至A股科技硬體類股。與此同時，Meta出租算力的消息引發市場對AI算力過剩的擔憂，納斯達克綜合指數單周下跌2.9%，全球資本市場避險情緒快速蔓延。
Third, tightening offshore liquidity expectations weigh on valuations. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and the Bank of Japan resumed rate hikes. While the Federal Reserve held rates steady, it sent hawkish signals beyond market expectations. Higher global risk-free rates pressure equity valuations and amplify outflows of foreign capital. Early in July, the TMT sector once accounted for over 45% of total turnover, reflecting overly optimistic long-term expectations. Such extreme crowding leaves A-share tech segments vulnerable to external shocks.
In addition, synchronized corrections in global technology markets serve as a key external trigger. In mid-July, South Korea’s stock market tumbled amid deleveraging. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix lost roughly 30% at maximum within a month, triggering circuit breakers. As vital links in the global AI industrial chain, the sharp swings in South Korea’s equities quickly spilled over to A-share tech hardware stocks. Separately, news of Meta’s computing power leasing sparked worries of AI computing oversupply. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.9% in a single week, driving up risk aversion across global financial markets.
但小編判斷，這一輪調整屬於結構性估值修正，並非系統性熊市。國內經濟保持溫和修復態勢，高端製造、數字經濟等產業長期成長邏輯不變，寬基指數整體估值仍然處於合理區間，不存在全面泡沫。
Nevertheless, this round of correction is deemed a structural valuation adjustment rather than a systemic bear market. China’s economy maintains a moderate recovery. The long-term growth logic of high-end manufacturing and digital economy remains intact. Valuations of broad-based indices stay within a reasonable range, with no widespread asset bubbles.
儘管短期波動劇烈，但多個跡象表明，本輪調整開始逐步進入後半程。
從資金面看，"聰明錢"已經開始逆勢佈局。 7月13日至17日，相關ETF合計淨流入逾550億元，資金集中湧入滬深300、中證500等寬基指數。7月19日晚間，中國國新和中國誠通兩大央企國有資本營運平台同步公告大額增持A股，並計畫加碼股票與ETF佈局。7月20日，中煤能源、中國中車、中國鋁業等六家央企控股上市公司密集披露增持、回購計畫，合計規模達12億至24億元。這說明國家隊資金開始低調進場托底。
Despite sharp short-term volatility, multiple signals suggest this correction is gradually entering its later phase.
From a capital perspective, "smart money" has begun contrarian positioning. Between July 13 and 17, related ETFs recorded a combined net inflow of over 55 billion yuan, with capital flowing heavily into broad-based indices including CSI 300 and CSI 500. On the evening of July 19, China Guoxin and China Chengtong, two major state-owned capital operation platforms, simultaneously announced large-scale increases in A-share holdings and planned further investments in stocks and ETFs. On July 20, six central SOE-listed firms including China Coal Energy, CRRC and Aluminum Corporation of China unveiled share purchase and buyback plans, with a total scale ranging from 1.2 billion to 2.4 billion yuan. This indicates state-backed capital has quietly stepped in to shore up the market.
從技術面看，超跌反彈動能正在積聚。經估算，7月17日上證指數、創業板指、科創50的乖離率已與2026年3月和2025年4月的市場底部接近，指向短期超跌後市場正在積聚反彈修復動能。隨著拋壓逐步衰竭，微觀流動性有望逐步修復，指數層面繼續大幅下行的空間有限。
從政策面看，穩定預期訊號明確釋放。資本市場監管層面主動加強預期管理，密集開展多方座談傾聽市場訴求，明確維護市場平穩運行、提升市場韌性的導向，持續疏通中長期資金入市堵點。整體政策思路注重精準施策、循序漸進，不搞強刺激，但持續夯實經濟與資本市場底部支撐，意在消解市場過度悲觀情緒，引導投資者理性區分短期行情波動與中長期發展趨勢。
Technically, momentum for an oversold rebound is building up. Estimates show that on July 17, the BIAS indicators of the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext Index and STAR 50 Index neared levels seen at market bottoms in March 2026 and April 2025. This signals accumulating rebound momentum following short-term excessive declines. As selling pressure gradually fades, micro liquidity is set to improve, leaving limited room for further steep index falls.
On the policy front, clear signals have been issued to stabilize market expectations. Capital market regulators have proactively strengthened expectation management, holding intensive forums to hear market feedback. Authorities have clarified their stance to safeguard stable market operation, boost market resilience and remove obstacles for medium- and long-term capital inflows. Policymakers favor targeted and gradual measures rather than aggressive stimulus. They keep consolidating the underlying support for the economy and capital markets to ease excessive pessimism and guide investors to rationally distinguish short-term market swings from medium-to-long-term growth trends.
當前階段，震盪磨底或是主基調。
綜合多家券商研判，本輪調整的空間已經足夠，但時間維度上可能仍需消化。前期科技類股調整已經比較充分，從經驗看本輪調整的空間已經足夠，只是調整時間較歷史有所不足。這意味著7月下旬即使有反彈，也很難走出快速單邊上漲，震盪磨底是大機率路徑。
從歷史規律看，7月本身具有季節性修復特徵。過去十年資料顯示，7月是僅次於2月和10月的強勢月份。6月下跌後市場風險得到釋放，7月基金發行升溫改善流動性環境，情緒逐步回升。但今年的特殊之處在於，前期科技類股漲幅過大，籌碼結構需要更長時間來消化。
Volatile bottom consolidation is likely to dominate market sentiment at this stage.
According to research from multiple brokerages, the correction has largely run its course in terms of downside space, yet further time adjustment remains necessary. The prior pullback in technology sectors has been substantial. Historical patterns suggest sufficient downside correction, though the duration of this adjustment is shorter compared with past cycles. This implies that even if a rebound emerges in late July, a rapid, one-way rally is unlikely; volatile bottom consolidation remains the most probable path.
From a historical perspective, July typically features seasonal market recovery. Data over the past decade shows July ranks as the third strongest month, trailing only February and October. Risks are often priced in following June declines. Improved fund issuance in July helps ease liquidity conditions and lift investor sentiment. What distinguishes this year is the outsized rally in tech stocks earlier on, which requires a longer period to unwind crowded positioning.
從短期來看，1-2個月內，市場大機率延續震盪整固格局，並將維持在震盪偏高中樞運行。一方面，外部擾動因素尚未完全出清，地緣政治風險仍存；另一方面，市場需要從"估值擴張"轉向"盈利驗證"，中報業績披露將成為重要觀察窗口。真正具備訂單支撐、利潤兌現能力的細分環節將持續走強，而純概念炒作的標的將面臨進一步出清。
從中期來看，3-6個月內，結構性機會將逐步顯現。本輪下跌主要由於外部情緒衝擊、內部擁擠度釋放以及槓桿被動出清三重因素共振導致，但科技產業的長期邏輯並未被破壞。國內半導體裝置、AI晶片訂單並未出現明顯變化，部分上游細分領域仍有漲價預期，行業景氣度未見實質下滑。預計在市場籌碼和情緒完成切換後，科技股或將遵從基本面預期繼續跑贏消費和內需。
In the short run, within the next one to two months, the market will probably maintain a consolidation pattern fluctuating around a moderately higher central level. For one thing, external disturbances including geopolitical risks have not been fully resolved. For another, the market needs a transition from valuation expansion to earnings verification, with semi-annual report season serving as a critical observation window. Sub-sectors backed by tangible orders and proven profit delivery capacity will stay resilient, while pure concept-driven stocks face further liquidation.
Over the medium term, spanning three to six months, structural opportunities will gradually surface. The current downturn stems from a confluence of three factors: external sentiment shocks, unwinding of crowded trades, and forced deleveraging. Nevertheless, the long-term fundamental logic for the technology industry remains intact. Orders for domestic semiconductor equipment and AI chips have not seen meaningful deterioration. Certain upstream segments still hold price hike expectations, with no material decline in industrial prosperity. Once market positioning and sentiment complete their transition, tech stocks are projected to outperform consumer and domestic demand sectors in line with fundamental expectations.
首先，關注業績確定性強的優質賽道。市場正在從"炒預期"轉向"炒兌現"，資金開始主動篩選業績預增的標的。科技類股內部，行情有望從算力、硬體環節向AI應用方向延伸；非科技方向，創新藥、券商、白酒、地產等類股的估值和機構持倉處於相對低位。
其次，重視高股息資產的防禦價值。在市場波動加劇階段，煤炭、銀行、農林牧漁、石油石化等紅利類股通常會表現出較強的抗跌性。雖然近期高股息類股也出現了短期調整，但中長期配置邏輯依然清晰，特別是在利率下行背景下，其相對吸引力仍然突出。
市場的調整從來不是終點，而是新一輪佈局的起點。本輪A股回呼雖然劇烈，但基本面並未發生根本性惡化，政策底、資金底、情緒底正在逐步匯聚。外部擾動終究是短期變數，真正決定市場走向的，是企業盈利的紮實增長。對於普通投資者而言，需要放平心態，將注意力方向半年乃至一年以上的產業成長機會，避免高槓桿、避免追漲殺跌。
First, prioritize high-quality sectors with solid earnings visibility. As the market shifts from pricing future expectations to rewarding tangible results, capital is actively screening stocks with projected profit growth. Within the technology sector, market momentum may extendfrom computing power and hardware to AI applications. Outside tech, innovative pharmaceuticals, securities, liquor and real estate sectors boast relatively low valuations and institutional positioning.
Second, attach importance to the defensive value of high-dividend assets. Amid heightened market volatility, dividend sectors including coal, banking, agriculture, forestry, livestock, fishery, oil and petrochemicals typically demonstrate strong resilience. Despite recent short-term corrections in high-dividend plays, their medium and long-term investment logic remains robust. Particularly under the backdrop of falling interest rates, their comparative appeal stands out.
Market corrections mark no end, but a starting point for fresh positioning. Though the A-share pullback has been sharp, fundamentals have not deteriorated fundamentally. The policy bottom, capital bottom and sentiment bottom are gradually converging. External disturbances are merely short-term variables; sustainable corporate earnings growth will ultimately steer market trends. Retail investors are advised to maintain a rational mindset, focus on industrial growth opportunities spanning six months or longer, refrain from high leverage and avoid chasing rallies or selling amid panics. (無界社 Economic Views)