High-bandwidth memory — the specialized chips powering Nvidia Corp.'s latest AI accelerators — appears set to remain dominated by established leaders such asMicron Technology Inc.(NASDAQ:MU),SK Hynix Inc.(NASDAQ:SKHY) andSamsung Electronics Co. Ltd.(NYSE:SSNLF) for years.
高帶寬記憶體器（HBM）——為輝達公司最新AI加速器提供動力的專用晶片——似乎將在未來數年繼續由美光科技（納斯達克：MU）、SK海力士（納斯達克：SKHY）和三星電子（紐約證券交易所：SSNLF）等現有龍頭企業主導。
China, however, is making rapid progress in commodity DRAM and NAND.
然而，中國在通用型DRAM和NAND領域正快速取得進展。
That's according toCounterpoint ResearchanalystMS Hwang, who told Benzinga in an interview that "Chinese vendors are catching up quickly in commodity DRAM and NAND. Yet, the HBM is difficult to catch up."
據Counterpoint Research分析師MS Hwang在接受Benzinga採訪時表示：「中國廠商在通用型DRAM和NAND領域正迅速追趕。但HBM很難趕超。」
He added: "I think China vendors can manufacture HBM3 in 1H 2027."
他補充道：「我認為中國廠商可以在2027年上半年製造出HBM3。」
HBM3 in early 2027 is not the current generation. By thenMicron, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronicsexpect to be shipping into HBM4 demand, with the roadmap already pointing past it.
2027年初的HBM3並非當前一代產品。屆時，美光、SK海力士和三星電子預計將已開始滿足HBM4的需求，其技術路線圖甚至已指向更遠的未來。
The moat is exactly one generation deep.
這一護城河恰好只有一代之深。
Read Also:Why Wall Street May Be Mispricing Qualcomm's AI Future, Citrini Says
另請閱讀：Citrini稱，華爾街可能誤判了高通的AI未來
Where Competition Could Actually Land
競爭可能真正落地之處
Commodity memory is a different story.
通用記憶體器則是另一回事。
Unlike HBM leaders, traditional NAND suppliers such asSanDisk Corp.(NASDAQ:SNDK) andWestern Digital Corp.(NASDAQ:WDC) appear more vulnerable to rising competition from Chinese manufacturers.
與HBM領域的領先企業不同，SanDisk Corp.（納斯達克：SNDK）和Western Digital Corp.（納斯達克：WDC）等傳統NAND供應商似乎更容易受到中國製造商日益激烈的競爭衝擊。
The product here is more standardized; the customer switches on price and the barrier is capital rather than know-how—precisely the barrier a state-backed entrant is built to clear.
這類產品更為標準化；客戶主要根據價格切換供應商，其壁壘在於資本而非技術訣竅——而這恰恰是獲得國家支援的入場者最擅長突破的壁壘。
That is the surface Chinese supply is aimed at — and the one carrying the most extreme pricing in the market right now.
這正是中國供應所瞄準的表層市場——也是當前市場上定價最為極端的領域。
China's memory ambitions took a major step forward today asChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), the country's largest DRAM manufacturer, completed an $8.6 billion IPO in Shanghai.
中國在記憶體晶片領域的雄心今日邁出重要一步，國內最大的DRAM製造商ChangXin Memory Technologies（CXMT）在上海完成了$86億 IPO。
A 466% first-day rally signaled strong investor confidence in Beijing's effort to build a globally competitive memory champion.
首日股價飆升466%，表明投資者對北京打造全球領先記憶體晶片巨頭的努力充滿信心。
China Wants A Piece Of The 4x Memory Boom
中國希望分得四倍記憶體晶片繁榮的一杯羹
Hwang said memory pricing has risen almost four times over the past year, with most of that move concentrated in the last six months.
Hwang表示，過去一年內存價格幾乎上漲了四倍，其中大部分漲幅集中在最近六個月。
He also placed the squeeze away from the data center.
他還指出，供應緊張的壓力已從數據中心轉移開來。
"The key bottleneck is on consumer segments such as smartphones, PC, games, and household goods," he said.
「關鍵瓶頸在於智能手機、PC、遊戲和家用電器等消費類領域，」他表示。
"It is similar in both DRAM and NAND, while DRAM seems to be more tight in supply condition," he added.
「DRAM和NAND的情況類似，而DRAM的供應狀況似乎更為緊張，」他補充道。
So the segment absorbing the sharpest price increases is the same segment where Chinese capacity is arriving.
因此，承受最劇烈價格上漲的細分市場，也正是中國產能正在進入的領域。
A market priced at four times last year's level is a wide target.
一個價格達到去年四倍水平的市場，是一個廣闊的目標。
Why Investors Still Value Memory Like A Commodity
為何投資者仍將記憶體器視為一種大宗商品
Despite record profitability, most memory companies continue trading at forward earnings multiples below 10.
儘管盈利創下歷史新高，但大多數記憶體器公司目前的遠期市盈率仍低於10倍。
According to Hwang, investors remain skeptical because the industry's economics have not fundamentally changed.
據Hwang表示，投資者仍持懷疑態度，因為該行業的經濟模式並未發生根本性改變。
"It is the nature of commodity products with huge capital deployment in a competitive way," he said.
「這類商品化產品本質上需要以競爭方式投入巨額資本，」他說道。
As long as manufacturers continue competing primarily on production scale and pricing, rather than structural changes in industry discipline, investors are unlikely to assign software-like valuation multiples.
只要製造商繼續主要依靠生產規模和價格展開競爭，而非在行業自律方面進行結構性變革，投資者就不太可能給予類似軟件公司的估值倍數。
That may explain why AI has created two distinct investment stories inside memory.
這或許解釋了為何人工智慧（AI）在記憶體器領域催生了兩個截然不同的投資故事。
Companies with exposure to HBM continue to benefit from technological barriers that Chinese rivals cannot easily overcome.
涉足HBM（高帶寬記憶體器）的公司持續受益於中國競爭對手難以輕易突破的技術壁壘。
Meanwhile, businesses more dependent on commodity DRAM and NAND could face increasing competitive pressure as Chinese manufacturers expand capacity.
與此同時，更依賴於大宗商品型DRAM和NAND業務的企業，可能隨著中國製造商擴大產能而面臨日益加劇的競爭壓力。
For investors, the next question may no longer be whether memory remains attractive, but which kind of memory business they actually own.
對投資者而言，下一個問題可能不再是記憶體器是否仍具吸引力，而是他們究竟持有那一類記憶體器業務。 (Benzinga)