The S&P 500 has just closed its best week since April, pushing the index close to where Wall Street broadly expected it to finish the year.
標普500指數剛剛結束了自4月以來表現最好的一周，推動該指數接近華爾街普遍預期的年底點位。
The benchmark closed at a record 7,757.64, up 3.58% on the week, its strongest five days since April and roughly 1% under the average year-end forecast on the Street.
該基準指數收於創紀錄的7,757.64點，周漲幅為3.58%，為4月以來最強勁的五個交易日表現，較華爾街平均年底預測值低約1%。
Wall Street's average year-end target sits around 7,845, with nearly five months still left in 2026.
華爾街對2026年年底的平均目標點位約為7,845點，而2026年尚餘近五個月時間。
JPMorgan has now raised the bar again.
摩根大通如今再次提高了目標。
The Target Goes Up, The Valuation Doesn't
目標上調，估值未變
Strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas lifted JPMorgan's 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000 from 7,800, implying 3.1% upside from Friday's close.
策略師Dubravko Lakos-Bujas將摩根大通對2026年年底標普500指數的目標點位從7,800點上調至8,000，這意味著較周五收盤價還有3.1%的上漲空間。
It is the second increase in two months — 7,600 to 7,800 came in June — and roughly 800 points of upward revision since March, when the bank cut to 7,200 as Brent crude spiked and the Strait of Hormuz closed.
這是兩個月內的第二次上調——上一次從7,600上調至7,800發生在6月——自3月以來累計上調了約800點，當時由於布倫特原油價格飆升以及荷姆茲海峽關閉，該行曾將目標下調至7,200。
The earnings estimates did all the work. JPMorgan raised its 2026 earnings-per-share forecast — the profit the index generates per share of ownership — to $365 from $350, or 35% growth, against a $358 consensus. The 2027 number went to $420 from $390.
盈利預期的上調是全部推動力所在。摩根大通將其對標普500指數2026年每股收益（即每持有一股所對應的指數利潤）的預測從$350上調至$365，相當於增長35%，而市場共識預期為$358。2027年的預測則從$390上調至$420。
The forward multiple, meaning the price investors pay today for each dollar of profit expected next year, stayed exactly where it was at about 20 times.
遠期市盈率（即投資者當前為明年每1美元預期利潤所支付的價格）維持不變，仍約為20倍。
The bank cited higher-for-longer rates, geopolitical risk and heavy equity and debt supply still to be absorbed.
該行提到了更高且更持久的利率、地緣政治風險，以及仍待消化的大量股票和債務供給。
JPMorgan described the earnings picture as "strong and broad-based across multiple sectors."
摩根大通將盈利表現描述為「強勁且遍及多個行業」。
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The AI Spending Cycle Is Starting To Matter
人工智慧支出周期開始產生影響
The biggest piece of the earnings story is artificial intelligence.
盈利故事中最重要的部分是人工智慧。
JPMorgan says the latest earnings season is providing more evidence that the enormous capital spending cycle is beginning to translate into actual revenue growth.
摩根大通表示，最新一輪業績期提供了更多證據，表明龐大的資本支出周期正開始轉化為實際的收入增長。
Cloud businesses are showing particularly strong momentum.
雲業務展現出尤為強勁的勢頭。
Amazon.com(NASDAQ:AMZN) reported AWS growth of 37% year over year, whileMicrosoft(NASDAQ:MSFT) saw Azure revenue rise 43%.Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL) reported an 82% increase in Google Cloud revenue.
亞馬遜（納斯達克：AMZN）報告其AWS收入同比增長37%，而微軟（納斯達克：MSFT）的Azure收入增長了43%。Alphabet（納斯達克：GOOGL）報告Google Cloud收入增長82%。
Backlogs are also expanding.
積壓訂單也在擴大。
Google Cloud's backlog increased by $52 billion quarter over quarter to $514 billion, while Amazon's backlog reached $496 billion, up 36% sequentially and nearly 2.5 times higher than a year earlier.
Google Cloud的積壓訂單環比增長$520億，達到$5,140億，而亞馬遜的積壓訂單達到$4,960億，環比增長36%，較一年前高出近2.5倍。
For JPMorgan, this provides an increasingly important signal: AI monetization may be accelerating faster than spending.
對摩根大通而言，這發出了一個日益重要的信號：人工智慧的貨幣化速度可能比支出增長得更快。
And spending is already enormous.
而支出本身已經非常龐大。
AI capex is expected to reach roughly $900 billion this year, up 85% year over year, and could exceed $1.2 trillion by the end of 2027.
今年人工智慧資本支出預計將達到約$9,000億，同比增長85%，到2027年底可能超過$1.2兆。
So How High Can The S&P 500 Go?
那麼標普500指數還能漲多高？
The board, updated for Monday's revision:
經周一修訂後的看板：
| Firm | 2026 Year-End Target | Implied Move From Last Friday's SPX Close |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 8,300 | +7.0% |
| Yardeni Research | 8,250 | +6.3% |
| RBC Capital Markets | 8,150 | +5.1% |
| 22V Research | 8,130 | +4.8% |
| Oppenheimer | 8,100 | +4.4% |
| Citigroup | 8,100 | +4.4% |
| CIBC | 8,020 | +3.4% |
| Deutsche Bank | 8,000 | +3.1% |
| Fundstrat | 8,000 | +3.1% |
| Goldman Sachs | 8,000 | +3.1% |
| JPMorgan ↑ from 7,800 | 8,000 | +3.1% |
| Societe Generale | 8,000 | +3.1% |
| Ned Davis Research | 7,950 | +2.5% |
| Wells Fargo | 7,950 | +2.5% |
| Average | 7,854 | +1.2% |
| Barclays | 7,800 | +0.5% |
| Stifel Nicolaus | 7,800 | +0.5% |
| Evercore ISI | 7,750 | −0.1% |
| HSBC | 7,650 | −1.4% |
| Scotiabank | 7,600 | −2.0% |
| UBS | 7,500 | −3.3% |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 7,400 | −4.6% |
| Bank of America | 7,100 | −8.5% |
Source: LSEG Datastream and Yardeni Research, updated for JPMorgan's Aug. 10 revision.
| 事務所 | 2026年年末目標 | 隱含變動（基於上週五SPX收盤價） |
|---|---|---|
| 摩根士丹利 | 8,300 | +7.0% |
| Yardeni Research | 8,250 | +6.3% |
| RBC Capital Markets | 8,150 | +5.1% |
| 22V Research | 8,130 | +4.8% |
| Oppenheimer | 8,100 | +4.4% |
| 花旗集團 | 8,100 | +4.4% |
| CIBC | 8,020 | +3.4% |
| 德意志銀行 | 8,000 | +3.1% |
| Fundstrat | 8,000 | +3.1% |
| 高盛 | 8,000 | +3.1% |
| 摩根大通 ↑ 自7,800 | 8,000 | +3.1% |
| Societe Generale | 8,000 | +3.1% |
| Ned Davis Research | 7,950 | +2.5% |
| Wells Fargo | 7,950 | +2.5% |
| 平均值 | 7,854 | +1.2% |
| 巴克萊銀行 | 7,800 | +0.5% |
| Stifel Nicolaus | 7,800 | +0.5% |
| Evercore ISI | 7,750 | −0.1% |
| HSBC | 7,650 | −1.4% |
| Scotiabank | 7,600 | −2.0% |
| UBS | 7,500 | −3.3% |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 7,400 | −4.6% |
| 美國銀行 | 7,100 | −8.5% |
來源：LSEG Datastream和Yardeni Research，已根據摩根大通8月10日的修訂進行更新。
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(Benzinga)