Nvidia Corp's (NASDAQ:NVDA) AI story is entering a new phase, but investors appear increasingly focused on what could go wrong.
輝達公司（納斯達克代碼：NVDA）的人工智慧故事正進入一個新階段，但投資者似乎越來越關注可能出現的問題。
Memory costs, margins, custom chips and Nvidia's investments in AI customers have all emerged as concerns. Bank of America, however, thinks investors may be overlooking what could drive the chipmaker's next leg higher.
記憶體器成本、利潤率、定製晶片以及輝達對人工智慧客戶的投資都已成為市場擔憂的問題。然而，美國銀行認為，投資者可能忽視了推動這家晶片製造商下一輪上漲的因素。
In a note shared Monday, Bank of America analystVivek Aryacalled Nvidia a "top pick" with a $350 price objective.
在美國銀行分析師Vivek Arya周一發佈的一份報告中，他將輝達列為「首選股票」，目標價為$350。
The target implied 56.3% upside from Nvidia's $223.96 price at the time.
該目標價較當時輝達股價$223.96有56.3%的上漲空間。
The key is Nvidia's upcoming Rubin architecture.
關鍵在於輝達即將推出的Rubin架構。
Nvidia Stock And The Rubin Era
輝達股票與Rubin時代
Nvidia is expected to report its second-quarter results on Aug. 26.
輝達預計將於8月26日公佈第二財季業績。
BofA expects revenue of $94 billion–$95 billion, about $3 billion–$4 billion above Nvidia's $91 billion guidance.
美國銀行預計其營收將達到$940億–$950億，比輝達此前給出的$910億指引高出約$30億–$40億。
It also expects third-quarter guidance of $107 billion–$108 billion, above the roughly $104 billion consensus estimate.
該行還預計第三財季的業績指引將在$1,070億–$1,080億之間，高於市場普遍預期的大約$1,040億。
But Arya anticipates that the start of Vera Rubin shipments, new Vera CPU ramps and continued cloud capital spending will trigger a "multi-quarter upgrade cycle."
但Arya預計，Vera Rubin晶片發貨啓動、新款Vera CPU量產爬坡以及雲服務資本支出的持續增長將觸發一個「多季度升級周期」。
That could make Rubin more important than the immediate earnings reaction.
這可能使Rubin比即時的盈利反應更為重要。
Nvidia's next-generation systems are also becoming significantly more valuable.
輝達的下一代系統也正變得顯著更有價值。
BofA estimates Vera Rubin NVL racks could cost roughly $7 million–$8.5 million, compared with about $4 million for Blackwell Ultra. That creates an important cushion against rising component costs.
美國銀行估計，Vera Rubin NVL機架的成本可能約為$700萬–$850萬，而Blackwell Ultra的成本約為$400萬。這為應對不斷上升的組件成本提供了重要的緩衝空間。
Read Also:JPMorgan Lifts S&P 500 Target to 8,000: How High Can It Go by Year-End?
另請閱讀：摩根大通將標普500指數目標上調至8,000：到年底還能漲多高？
Why Memory May Not Break Nvidia's Margins
為何內存成本可能不會侵蝕輝達的利潤率
Memory inflation has become one of the biggest concerns surrounding the AI trade.
內存價格上漲已成為圍繞人工智慧交易的最大擔憂之一。
BofA estimates that higher memory costs create only about a 60-basis-point gross-margin headwind for Nvidia's Rubin compute racks.
美國銀行估計，更高的內存成本僅對輝達Rubin計算機架的毛利率造成約60個點子的不利影響。
The bank still expects long-term gross margins around 73%–74%, versus roughly 75% currently.
該行仍預計長期毛利率將在73%–74%左右，而目前約為75%。
Why so little impact? Nvidia has pricing power, preferential memory sourcing and the ability to adjust prices as component costs change.
影響為何如此之小？輝達擁有定價權、優先獲得內存供應的管道，以及在組件成本變化時調整價格的能力。
The economics look even stronger when GPU rental prices are considered.
當考慮GPU租賃價格時，其經濟性看起來甚至更強。
BofA's data show A100, H100 and B200 rental prices near historical highs as of August. That suggests customers continue to place significant value on scarce Nvidia compute capacity.
美國銀行的數據顯示，截至8月，A100、H100和B200的租賃價格接近歷史高點。這表明客戶仍對稀缺的輝達計算能力賦予極高的價值。
For investors, that matters more than the absolute cost of memory.
對投資者而言，這一點比內存的絕對成本更重要。
If Nvidia can raise system prices faster than memory costs rise, Rubin could expand the company's revenue opportunity without destroying its margins.
如果輝達提高系統價格的速度快於內存成本的上漲速度，Rubin可以在不損害公司利潤率的情況下擴大其收入機會。
The Valuation Is The Real Bull Case
估值才是真正的看漲理由
Nvidia trades at roughly 16 times forward earnings, which BofA describes as the "cheapest valuation" in about a decade. Yet BofA forecasts Nvidia's EPS rising from $4.55 in calendar 2026 to $9.09 in calendar 2027, nearly doubling in one year.
輝達目前的遠期市盈率約為16倍，美國銀行稱這是「近十年來最便宜的估值」。然而，美國銀行預測輝達的每股收益將從日曆2026年的$4.55增至日曆2027年的$9.09，在一年內幾乎翻倍。
That creates an unusual setup.
這就形成了一種不同尋常的局面。
Nvidia is entering another major AI product cycle while its valuation has compressed sharply relative to its historical growth profile.
輝達正進入另一個重要的人工智慧產品周期，而其估值相對於歷史增長軌跡已大幅壓縮。
The Rubin era, therefore, is not simply another Nvidia product launch. It could be the catalyst that forces investors to rethink both Nvidia's earnings power and its valuation.
因此，Rubin時代不僅僅是一次普通的輝達產品發佈。它可能成為促使投資者重新思考輝達盈利能力和估值水平的催化劑。 (Benzinga)