人工智慧領域高達五千億美元的借貸狂潮正在與Uncle Sam爭奪債券買家

AI速讀
AI 建設熱潮導致超大規模雲端商發債量激增。亞馬遜、Alphabet、Meta 與甲骨文 2026 年初至 7 月發債額達 1,940 億美元,年增 79%。高盛預測 2027 年相關發債將達 4,000 億美元。由於 AI 相關債務已佔投資級債券發行量約 15%,與美國政府高額赤字借款產生競爭,導致 30 年期美債收益率被推高。目前市場已出現價格抵制現象,部分債券在定價後價格下跌,顯示投資者對 AI 高額債務的承擔能力開始產生疑慮。

Four companies are driving most of the fresh corporate bond supply tied to the AI buildout.Amazon.com Inc.(NASDAQ:AMZN),Alphabet Inc.(NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL),Meta Platforms Inc.(NASDAQ:META) andOracle Corp.(NYSE:ORCL) sold about $194 billion of bonds in 2026 through early July, up 79% from roughly $108 billion for all of 2025, according to a Reuters analysis of LSEG data.

四家公司正推動與人工智慧基礎設施建設相關的大部分新增公司債券供應。據路透社對LSEG數據的分析,亞馬遜公司(納斯達克:AMZN)、Alphabet公司(納斯達克:GOOG)(納斯達克:GOOGL)、Meta Platforms公司(納斯達克:META)和甲骨文公司(紐約證券交易所:ORCL)在2026年截至7月初已發行了約$1,940億的債券,較2025年全年的約$1,080億增長了79%。

Goldman Sachs expects issuance from those four plusMicrosoft Corp.(NASDAQ:MSFT) to reach $250 billion this year and $400 billion in 2027.

高盛預計,這四家公司加上微軟公司(納斯達克:MSFT)今年的發債規模將達到$2,500億,2027年將達到$4,000億。

Equity Raises Widen The Tally

計入股權融資後總額進一步擴大

The tally widens once equity raises are included. Through July 22, the same five hyperscalers had collectively raised $302 billion via stock and bond sales, Axios reported, citing S&P Global Market Intelligence.

一旦將股權融資計算在內,總額將進一步擴大。據Axios援引標普全球市場財智的數據報導,截至7月22日,上述五家超大規模雲服務商通過股票和債券發行合計籌集了$3,020億。

Goldman separately pegged global AI-related debt supply at $489 billion so far this year, already ahead of its full 2025 estimate of $322 billion. Fortune put the bond total alone at more than $300 billion since the start of 2025 for Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and Oracle.

高盛另據估算,今年迄今全球與人工智慧相關的債務供應已達$4,890億,已超過其對2025年全年$3,220億的預估。《財富》雜誌則指出,僅債券一項,自2025年初以來,Alphabet、Meta、亞馬遜和甲骨文的發行總額就已超過$3,000億。

This supply now sits alongside the Treasury's own borrowing needs rather than off to the side. AI-related debt has climbed to roughly 15% of total investment-grade bond issuance, Barclays data shows, per Reuters.

如今,這部分供應已不再是邊緣角色,而是與美國財政部自身的借款需求並駕齊驅。據路透社援引巴克萊銀行數據顯示,與人工智慧相關的債務已攀升至投資級債券總髮行量的大約15%。

A separate Reuters piece cited a strategist who put AI-linked issuance at about 15% of the total duration the Treasury supplies to the market.

路透社另一篇報導引用了一位策略師的觀點,稱與人工智慧相關的債券發行約佔美國財政部向市場提供的總久期的15%。

Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok has warned that the surge raises a basic question: who becomes the marginal buyer of investment-grade paper when hyperscaler supply keeps climbing, Fortune reported.

據《財富》雜誌報導,Apollo首席經濟學家Torsten Slok警告稱,這種激增引發了一個基本問題:當超大規模雲服務商的債券供應持續攀升時,誰將成為投資級債券的邊際買家?

The federal deficit, meanwhile, is running near $2 trillion a year with roughly $1 trillion in interest costs alone, leaving the Treasury little room to out-yield the competition.

與此同時,聯邦赤字目前每年接近$2兆,僅利息支出就約為$1兆,使得財政部幾乎沒有餘地提供比競爭對手更高的收益率。

Investors Push Back On Price

投資者對價格提出異議

Investors are pushing back on price. A Wall Street Journal report on a combined $75 billion of bonds fromNvidia Corp.(NASDAQ:NVDA),SpaceX(NASDAQ:SPCX) and Amazon found the debt struggled to clear the market and slumped soon after pricing.

投資者正在對價格表示抵制。《華爾街日報》的一篇報導稱,輝達公司(納斯達克:NVDA)、SpaceX(納斯達克:SPCX)和亞馬遜合計發行了$750億的債券,但這些債券在定價後難以順利售出,並很快下跌。

Spreads on hyperscaler paper have widened across maturities this year, with Amazon needing extra yield to complete a recent $25 billion sale.

今年,超大規模企業債券在各期限的利差均有所擴大,亞馬遜最近完成一筆$250億的債券發行時不得不提供更高的收益率。

The strain has shown up in Treasury's own market too. The 30-year yield topped 5.33% on Tuesday, a level CNBC linked directly to hyperscaler debt issuance layering onto an already crowded long end of the curve.

這種壓力也出現在美國國債市場本身。周二,30年期美債收益率升破5.33%,CNBC將這一水平直接歸因於超大規模企業債務發行進一步加重了本已擁擠的長端曲線。(Benzinga)