More than 24 gigawatts of data center capacity is already in advanced construction across just 40 campuses, most of it expected to come online in 2027, according to new research from SemiAnalysis.
據SemiAnalysis的一項最新研究顯示，僅在40個園區內，已有超過24吉瓦的數據中心容量處於建設的後期階段，其中大部分預計將於2027年投入運營。
The research firm forecasts 50 gigawatts of new data center capacity outside China in 2027, roughly as much as the industry had built in those markets over its entire history up to the end of 2024.
該研究機構預計，到2027年，中國以外地區將新增50吉瓦的數據中心裝機容量，這一規模大致相當於截至2024年底該行業在這些市場累計建成的總規模。
The bullish outlook comes as Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) walked away from a U.K. data center agreement because of electricity delays. The 50-megawatt facility was expected to house approximately 23,000 Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) GB300 chips.
看漲前景出現之際，微軟公司（納斯達克股票代碼：MSFT）因電力供應延遲而放棄了與英國的一項數據中心協議。該設施的裝機容量為50兆瓦，原計劃容納約2.3萬顆輝達公司（納斯達克股票代碼：NVDA）的GB300晶片。
Why SemiAnalysis Expects the Boom to Continue
SemiAnalysis爲何預計繁榮將持續
Most of the 40 campuses are more than halfway completed, with cooling and electrical equipment already installed.
40個校區中的大多數已建成過半，製冷與電氣設備也已安裝完畢。
The researchers wrote that "gigantic sites are simply getting built, and many are on time" in Monday's report.
研究人員在周一發佈的報告中寫道：「巨型項目正在如火如荼地建設中，且許多項目均按計劃推進。」
Their confidence rests on a surge in long-term leases. Developers typically spend only 5% to 10% of a project's budget before securing a customer, using signed contracts to raise financing.
他們的信心源於長期租賃的大幅增長。開發商通常在鎖定客戶之前，僅動用項目預算的5%至10%，並藉助已簽署的合同來籌措資金。
SemiAnalysis estimates roughly $1 trillion in multiyear data center leases have been signed this year, helping fund construction scheduled for 2027 and 2028.
SemiAnalysis估計，今年已簽署的多年期數據中心租賃合同總額約爲1兆美元，這將爲計劃於2027年和2028年啓動的項目建設提供資金支持。
The firm also argues that "the power generation problem has broadly been solved."
該公司還辯稱：「發電問題已基本得到解決。」
Rather than waiting five to 10 years for grid connections, developers are increasingly installing their own electricity generation, including fuel cells, refurbished turbines and engines originally designed for trucks.
與其等待5至10年才能接入電網，開發商正越來越多地自建發電設施，其中包括燃料電池、經改造的渦輪機以及最初爲卡車設計的發動機。
These alternatives could bypass the kind of grid delays that derailed Microsoft's Essex deal, although they may not be practical at every location.
這些替代方案可以繞過導致微軟埃塞克斯交易告吹的那種電網延遲，儘管它們未必在每個地點都切實可行。
Construction is accelerating, too. SemiAnalysis says Singapore-based DayOne has cut building timelines from more than 18 months to around nine. The firm estimates that modular construction can reduce certain on-site labor requirements by up to 63%.
建設進度也在加快。SemiAnalysis指出，總部位於新加坡的DayOne已將施工周期從18個月以上縮短至約9個月。該公司估計，模塊化建造可將部分現場用工需求最多削減63%。
Could Chips Become the Next Bottleneck?
芯片會成爲下一個瓶頸嗎？
Not everyone shares SemiAnalysis's optimism.
並非所有人都與SemiAnalysis一樣樂觀。
Altimeter Capital founder Brad Gerstner challenged an earlier 43-gigawatt projection from SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel on the All-In podcast.
Altimeter Capital創始人布萊德·格斯特納在「All-In」播客節目中，對SemiAnalysis創始人迪倫·帕特爾此前提出的43吉瓦的預測提出了質疑。
"I would suggest Dylan's forecast of 43 gigawatts next year is too aggressive," Gerstner said, estimating actual delivery closer to 25 gigawatts. His comments focused on U.S. infrastructure, while SemiAnalysis's latest forecast covers a broader market.
「我認爲迪倫關於明年裝機容量將達到43吉瓦的預測過於樂觀，」格斯特納表示，並預計實際裝機規模更接近25吉瓦。他的評論主要聚焦於美國的基礎設施領域，而SemiAnalysis的最新預測則覆蓋了更爲廣泛的市場。
Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket put roughly 9% odds on an AI industry downturn by Dec. 31. The contract requires three qualifying events within 90 days, potentially including a 50% drop in Nvidia shares from their all-time high.
與此同時，Polymarket上的交易者預計到12月31日人工智能行業出現下行的概率約爲9%。該合約要求在90天內發生三項符合條件的事件，其中可能包括輝達股價較歷史最高點下跌50%。
SemiAnalysis expects memory and processor shortages to become a bigger constraint in 2027 and 2028.
SemiAnalysis預計，到2027年和2028年，內存與處理器短缺將成爲更爲嚴峻的制約因素。
For Nvidia, that could mean demand for its chips continues to outstrip supply even as developers overcome the construction and electricity problems holding up projects today.
對輝達而言，這意味着即便開發者已克服當前制約項目推進的建設和電力難題，其芯片需求仍將持續供不應求。 (Benzinga)