Nearly half of planned AI data center capacity may not get built next year, threatening future demand for Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) chips, a bearish Wall Street analyst warns.
近一半的計劃中的人工智慧數據中心產能可能無法在明年建成，這將威脅到輝達公司（納斯達克：NVDA）晶片的未來需求，一位看空的華爾街分析師警告稱。
Seaport Research Partners analyst Jay Goldberg estimates only 30 gigawatts of 55 gigawatts announced for 2027 will materialize, Barron's reported Friday. That represents a potential 45% shortfall.
據《巴倫周刊》周五報導，海港研究夥伴公司的分析師傑伊·戈德伯格預計，到2027年已宣佈的55吉瓦裝機容量中，僅有30吉瓦能夠落地。這意味著可能出現高達45%的缺口。
Goldberg maintains a Sell rating and $180 price target, about 15% below Thursday's closing price.
戈德伯格維持「賣出」評級，目標價為180美元，較周四收盤價折讓約15%。
He points to shortages of electricians, gas turbines and electricity connections as major obstacles.
他指出，電工、燃氣輪機和電力接入的短缺是主要障礙。
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) recently withdrew from an Nvidia-backed Nscale data center project in England after its expected electricity connection slipped into the 2030s. The facility was intended to house more than 23,000 Nvidia GPUs.
微軟公司（納斯達克股票代碼：MSFT）近日退出了由輝達支持的英國Nscale數據中心項目，此前該項目預期的電力接入時間被推遲至2030年代。該設施原計劃容納超過2.3萬塊輝達GPU。
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) has faced similar problems, with some Nvidia servers sitting in warehouses while the company waits for data centers to have enough electricity to operate them.
亞馬遜公司（納斯達克股票代碼：AMZN）也曾面臨類似問題，部分輝達服務器被擱置在倉庫中，等待數據中心具備足夠的電力以供其運行。
Nvidia's Financial Exposure
輝達的財務風險敞口
Goldberg's concerns extend beyond construction delays. Nvidia is also helping finance some of the companies expected to buy its chips.
戈德伯格的擔憂不僅限於施工延誤。輝達還爲一些預計將採購其芯片的公司提供融資支持。
He argues that investments, loans and credit guarantees amount to "another form of discounting," allowing Nvidia to support sales without formally cutting chip prices.
他認爲，投資、貸款和信用擔保實際上構成了「另一種形式的折扣」，使輝達能夠在不正式下調芯片價格的情況下支撐銷售。
Goldberg believes Nvidia would rather have 200 smaller, dependent customers than rely on three powerful technology giants.
戈德伯格認爲，輝達寧願擁有200家規模較小、依賴性強的客戶，也不願完全仰仗三家實力雄厚的科技巨頭。
But smaller cloud providers such as CoreWeave Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWV) and Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) need enormous amounts of financing to keep buying Nvidia's chips. If they struggle, Nvidia could face weaker sales and pressure on its margins.
但像CoreWeave公司（納斯達克股票代碼：CRWV）和Nebius集團（納斯達克股票代碼：NBIS）這樣的小型雲服務提供商，需要大量資金才能持續採購輝達的芯片。如果它們陷入困境，輝達可能會面臨銷售額下滑和利潤率承壓的局面。
Nvidia had $279 billion in supply and capacity commitments as of July 26, more than double the $119 billion reported a quarter earlier.
截至7月26日，輝達的供貨與產能承諾總額達2790億美元，較上一季度報告的1190億美元翻了一倍有餘。
It also disclosed $36 billion in cloud-service commitments to providers buying its hardware.
它還披露了向採購其硬件的供應商提供的360億美元雲服務承諾。
Nvidia warned in its latest quarterly filing that infrastructure shortages could delay chip purchases and hurt revenue. Some supply commitments can be adjusted or canceled.
輝達在其最新一期的季度業績中警告稱，基礎設施短缺可能導致芯片採購延遲，並拖累營收。部分供貨承諾可能被調整或取消。
Analysts Disagree on Construction Outlook
分析師對建築業前景看法不一
Research firm SemiAnalysis takes a more optimistic view, identifying more than 24 gigawatts already in advanced construction across 40 campuses.
研究機構SemiAnalysis持更爲樂觀的看法，指出在40個園區中，已有超過24吉瓦的產能處於建設的後期階段。
"Gigantic sites are simply getting built, and many are on time," its researchers wrote Monday.
「巨型項目正在陸續興建，且許多項目均按計劃推進，」其研究人員於周一寫道。
A delayed data center also does not necessarily mean a lost Nvidia sale. Chips could instead go to customers with available electricity.
數據中心的延遲部署也並不意味着輝達的銷售就此流失。這些芯片完全有可能流向那些電力供應充足的客戶。
Goldberg himself expects record Nvidia sales into early 2027, but believes the risks will grow over the following year.
戈德伯格本人預計輝達的銷售額將在2027年初創下新高，但認爲此後一年的風險將逐步加大。
On Polymarket, Nvidia's odds of finishing 2026 as the world's most valuable company fell from above 80% earlier this month to 56% in a Friday morning snapshot, while Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) climbed to 41%.
在Polymarket上，輝達在2026年成爲全球市值最高公司的概率從本月早些時候的80%以上降至周五上午的56%，而蘋果公司（納斯達克：AAPL）則升至41%。
Nvidia shares closed Thursday at $212.21, down 4.4%.
輝達股價周四收盤報212.21美元，下跌4.4%。 (Benzinga)