Earnings season is heating up for the quarter, and after two weeks featuring many Dow Jones Industrial Average companies, this week turns to the Magnificent Seven, with three of the seven (which also belong to the Dow Jones Industrial Average) reporting this week.
本季度業績期正進入高潮；在前兩周密集披露的多隻道瓊斯工業平均指數成分股之後，本周焦點轉向「七巨頭」，其中三隻（同樣為道瓊斯工業平均指數成分股）將於本周公佈業績。
Here's a look at the earnings estimates, key items to watch and which ETFs could be in focus.
以下是盈利預期、值得關注的重點事項，以及可能受到關注的ETF。
Magnificent Seven Earnings Estimates
科技七巨頭業績預測
The following three Magnificent Seven stocks will report quarterly financial results this week:
以下三隻「七巨頭」股票將於本周公佈季度業績：
Here are the current revenue and earnings per share estimates from Benzinga Pro for those three technology giants:
以下是Benzinga Pro針對這三家科技巨頭的最新營收與每股收益預測：
Microsoft: $4.72 EPS estimate versus $4.13 last year and has beaten analyst estimates more than 10 straight quarters; $90.68 billion revenue estimate versus $77.67 billion last year and has beaten analyst estimates more than 10 straight quarters.
微軟：每股收益預期爲4.72美元，高於去年的4.13美元，且已連續超過10個季度超出分析師預期；營收預期爲906.8億美元，高於去年的776.7億美元，同樣已連續超過10個季度超出分析師預期。
Alphabet: $3.02 EPS estimate versus $2.87 last year and has beaten analyst estimates more than 10 straight quarters; $128.18 billion revenue estimate versus $102.35 billion last year and has beaten analyst estimates more than 10 straight quarters.
Alphabet：每股收益預期爲3.02美元，高於去年的2.87美元，並已連續超過10個季度超出分析師預期；營收預期爲1281.8億美元，高於去年的1023.5億美元，並同樣已連續超過10個季度超出分析師預期。
Amazon: $1.96 EPS estimate versus $1.95 last year and has beaten analyst estimates two straight quarters and in nine of the last 10 quarters overall; $202.24 billion revenue estimate versus $180.17 billion last year and has beaten analyst estimates eight straight quarters and in nine of the past 10 quarters overall.
亞馬遜：每股收益預期爲1.96美元，高於去年的1.95美元，並且已連續兩個季度、以及在過去十個季度中的九個季度超出分析師預期；營收預期爲2022.4億美元，高於去年的1801.7億美元，並且已連續八個季度、以及在過去十個季度中的九個季度超出分析師預期。
What Experts are Watching
專家們正在關注什麼
With concerns about neocloud financing and capex by big technology companies, Yorkville Ives analyst Dan Ives sees pressure on the Magnificent Seven stocks ahead of earnings.
鑑於市場對大型科技公司新雲業務的融資狀況及資本支出存有擔憂，約克維爾投資公司的分析師丹·艾夫斯認爲，在業績公佈前，「七巨頭」股票將面臨下行壓力。
Ives estimates that 800 to 1,000 more data centers will be built in the U.S. over the next few years. The analyst sees hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet as winners from this Fourth Industrial Revolution.
艾夫斯預計，未來幾年內，美國將再新建800至1000個數據中心。這位分析師認爲，微軟、亞馬遜和字母表等超大規模雲服務商將成爲這場第四次工業革命的贏家。
"This week will be an important one to gauge the demand trends/GPU building/enterprise capex-driven plans for the Big Tech stalwarts with all the markets watching," Ives said.
「本週將至關重要，市場各方都在密切關注，以研判科技巨頭們的市場需求走勢、顯卡備貨情況以及由企業資本支出驅動的規劃。」艾夫斯表示。
Ives highlights $850 billion of hyperscaler AI spend this year against a cloud backlog of more than $2 trillion, meaning capacity and not demand is the constraint.
艾夫斯指出，今年超大規模雲服務商在人工智能領域的支出高達8500億美元，而其雲服務訂單積壓規模已超過2萬億美元，這意味着制約因素在於產能而非需求。
"Microsoft is the cleanest expression of that setup. Azure moves the stock, but the read that matters is whether capacity is absorbed as fast as it lands, since backlog compounding ahead of revenue is the demand underwriting the capex."
「微軟正是這一格局最純粹的體現。Azure推動了股價上漲，但真正關鍵的判斷在於，產能是否能以與落地速度相匹配的速度被消化，因爲收入增長之前的積壓訂單，正是支撐資本支出的需求來源。」
Ives says for Amazon the key is the AWS backlog.
艾夫斯表示，對亞馬遜而言，關鍵在於AWS的訂單積壓。
On Alphabet, Ives says Google Cloud will set the tone for the company's earnings.
在Alphabet方面，艾夫斯表示，谷歌雲將爲公司的業績定下基調。
"The Cloud question is how much of the $514 billion backlog converts as capacity arrives."
「雲計算問題在於，隨着產能逐步到位，這5140億美元的未交付訂單中有多少能夠轉化爲實際收入。」
Here are Ives' ratings and price targets on the three stocks:
以下是艾夫斯對這三隻股票的評級與目標價：
Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods highlights Alphabet and Microsoft as the two names to watch among the three Magnificent Seven stocks reporting.
自由資本市場的首席市場策略師傑伊·伍茲指出，在即將公佈業績的七隻明星股中，Alphabet和微軟是值得關注的兩隻。
"The question is will good results be able to take them higher or back to old highs," Woods said in a weekly newsletter. "We have seen pricing multiples tell us these are cheap stocks, but will investors buy it."
「問題在於，良好的業績能否推動股價進一步上行，還是隻能回到此前的高點？」伍茲在一份每週通訊中表示，「我們看到估值倍數顯示這些股票估值偏低，但投資者是否願意買入呢？」
Woods highlights Alphabet stock peaking near $408 in May and than making lower highs since then, setting up some bearish technicals.
伍茲指出，Alphabet股價在5月曾觸及近408美元的高位，此後便不斷創出更低的高點，技術面由此呈現出看跌信號。
"The bears have the technical advantage, but a swift recovery of support could quickly change that narrative."
「空頭在技術面上佔據優勢，但若支撐位迅速回升，這一局面或將迅速逆轉。」
For Microsoft, Woods calls the $340 to $350 level a floor for the stock, with shares rejecting the $545 to $555 area previously, setting up the technical boundaries.
對於微軟而言，伍茲將340至350美元的價位視爲股價的支撐位，而此前股價曾多次拒絕545至555美元的區域，這爲技術面設定了明確的區間。
"For now, Microsoft remains in a longer-term trading range, and until buyers can convincingly clear that ceiling, history suggests chasing rallies near resistance may be a tough trade."
「目前，微軟仍處於較長期的震盪區間，而在買方能夠令人信服地突破該阻力位之前，歷史經驗表明，在阻力位附近追漲可能是一筆風險較高的交易。」
Index and ETF Volatility
指數與ETF波動率
The three Magnificent Seven stocks will create large volatility for several of the largest stock market indexes and the ETFs that track them. All three companies belong to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and are key top 10 holdings in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
這七隻「大牛股」將給多個主要股指及其跟蹤ETF帶來劇烈波動。這三家公司均入選道瓊斯工業平均指數，同時也是標普500指數和納斯達克100指數的前十大重倉股。
Here's a look at the current weighting in key ETFs.
以下是主要ETF的當前權重情況。
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)
標準普爾道瓊斯工業平均指數ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：DIA）
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY)
標普500ETF-SPDR信託（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）
Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ)
納指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust（納斯達克：QQQ）
Stock Performance
股票表現
Here are the current year-to-date stock performances of the three stocks and the major indexes:
以下是三隻股票及主要股指的年初至今表現：
Of the three Magnificent Seven stocks, Microsoft and Amazon have both outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average. All three stocks have underperformed against the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.
在三大「七巨頭」股票中，微軟和亞馬遜的表現均優於道瓊斯工業平均指數。然而，這三隻股票相對於標準普爾500指數和納斯達克100指數而言，表現均遜色。 (Benzinga)