#台光電
5/21日(四)大家好!我是陳學進(大師兄) 盤中看盤重點: 今日台北股市呈現「開高震盪走高」的格局,盤中指數一度大漲近1600點,並站回於10日線及月線之上,預估成交量擴增至兆元左右的水準,其相對強勢亮眼的表現,真的是太漂亮了!主要原因除了受惠於美伊談判現曙光,隨著油價大舉回落、美債市場拋售壓力降溫,加上輝達(NVIDIA)財報亮眼、財測超乎市場預期、以及美科技類股與費半指數強勁反彈大漲的激勵,在權王台積電、聯發科、台達電、鴻海、日月投、台光電、聯電等七大權值股、以及創意、國巨、華新科、環球晶、合晶、友達、群創…等產業龍頭股連袂大漲的拉抬下,今日指數就是一如預期強彈大漲並重返41K關卡之上,Bingo!一切盡在不言中,相信大家都有目共賭!展望後市,就技術面的角度來看,隨著今日強勁反彈大漲上來之後,昨日加權指數39967低點,將構成多方重要的防守關卡,下周只要守穩不破,則在多方重新掌握控盤權之下,後市行情將可望續朝43K、甚至45K邁進。 再者,就經濟面、產業面及資金面的角度來看,從2025年4月9日17306點起漲以來,大師兄就一再地強調,真的不要忽視AI共振的威力;第一、受惠於AI需求火熱、動能強勁,北美五大CSP業者持續上修資本支出;大摩指出,亞馬遜、Google母公司字母、Meta、微軟和甲骨文等北美五大雲端服務供應商(CSP),預估今年資本支出將逾8000億美元(逾新台幣2.52兆元),高於先前預估的7650億美元;明年更將首度突破1兆美元大關、達1.1兆美元(逾新台幣34.7兆元),再寫新猷,較原先預測的9510億美元明顯增加,顯示AI產業需求續旺,有利後市發展;第二、AI晶片龍頭輝達「報」喜,Q1財報營收創新高,財測再超乎市場預期,並看好新一代Vera Rubin表現將超越Grace Blackwell,執行長黃仁勳表示,代理型AI時代已經來臨,AI工廠建設正以「驚人速度」加速推進;黃仁勳19日先釋出正向訊息,強調AI基礎設施建置仍在「最初期」,相關需求可望延續至未來十年;全球仍處於AI基建的最初期,至少未來十年都會有相關商機推動;AI基建需求持續推進,未來AI更可望走入實體,代表AI將會從數位邁入現實世界,屆時人類可望迎來歷史上首次的90兆美元實體產業規模;法人看好,黃仁勳唱旺AI商機,台積電、鴻海、廣達、緯創、以及相關供應鏈都將受惠;第三、台灣具備完整供應鏈優勢,擁有從晶圓製造、封裝測試、材料供應到系統整合的完整產業聚落,在全球AI競局中具備不可取代的戰略地位;本波多頭循環並未出現典型景氣反轉訊號,美國就業市場與消費動能維持韌性,加上企業資本支出持續擴張,顯示基本面仍處於擴張階段;尤其AI所帶動的新一輪投資循環,已成為支撐全球經濟的核心引擎;台灣基本面同樣展現強勁支撐,2025年GDP成長達8.68%,2026年預估仍有7.71%的高成長水準,甚至不排除仍有續創去年新高的機會;第四、外銷訂單強強滾,寫下最強4月,外銷訂單金額達874.5億美元,創歷年同期新高、歷年單月第二高,年增48.1%,呈連續15個月正成長走勢;經濟部預估,在AI需求帶動下,5月接單有機會再衝900億美元大關,並可望一路旺到年底;第五、台股基金規模衝1.5兆,今年來大增81.5%;根據投信投顧公會統計,截至去年12月起,台股共同基金的規模為8341.7億,被動式ETF的規模則為3.68兆,主動式ETF的規模僅有1302億;但至今年4月底,台股共同基金的規模卻快速來到1.51兆,規模成長率為81.5%,主動式ETF的規模也大幅增長到5295.3億,今年來成長率更高達3倍以上;而被動式ETF的規模雖然也增加到4.7兆元,但規模成長率也有28.8%;加上八大公股行庫、五大壽險、以及內資主力大戶等買盤支撐,使市場即便面臨外資短線調節,仍具備強大承接能力,也有效降低盤勢大幅拉回風險;因此,在經濟面、產業面及資金面等均處在於相對有利的條件下,後市不悲觀不看淡,,如所言:4萬點應非本波終點,若是今年看到4萬5、甚至5萬點關卡,大家也不必感到意外!
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5/20日(三)大家好!我是陳學進(大師兄) 盤中看盤重點: 今日台北股市呈現「開平狹幅震盪、個股表現」的格局,預估成交量縮減至9500億元左右的水準;OTC櫃買指數亦同步量縮震盪作整理,並不意外!主要原因除了這一波指數從去年11/21日26395點起漲以來,至近期再創42408點新高為止,短短半年左右的時間累積大漲逾16000點後,加上近期上市公司融資餘額攀升至5016億元歷年相對高檔水位下,自然短線上將有震盪拉回整理的必要外;再者,由於美伊僵局未解,導致關鍵能源通道荷莫茲海峽幾乎完全被封鎖,首當其衝則是油價飆漲、美國公債殖利率攀升;根據花旗集團週二(19日)最新報告預測,布蘭特(Brent)原油短期內可能升至每桶120美元,並指出市場目前仍低估長期供應中斷及極端風險情境對價格的衝擊,當前原油市場已不再只反映「供應缺口」,而是開始計入「供應受干擾時間有多長」,若供應衝擊持續數月以上,不僅將推升通膨壓力,也可能改變全球能源貿易與需求模式。 隨著能源成本上升,加劇通膨壓力,美國10年期公債殖利率再度升破4.6%,30年期公債殖利率盤中一度觸及5.2%,攀19年新高,顯見在市場對通膨與利率前景憂慮升溫下,連帶引發股市回檔修正,外資、業內主力及自營商調節動作不斷,使得指數連袂跌破10日線及月線等二道關卡,陷入4萬點保衛戰,並威脅近來受惠於「人工智慧(AI)行情」的亞股漲勢;因此,就短期而言,台股月線失守後,未來3個交易日能否再站回來,則至關重要,假若形成實質跌破、甚至跌破5/4日39228點關卡支撐區,月線將由支撐轉為壓力,如此,則加權指數恐有續探季線的風險存在,不可不慎!但是,若能夠成功站回來,則盤勢將可望採取高姿態的整理,如此,後市將可望續朝43K、甚至45K邁進。