2026年5月13日，美國總統川普帶了一眾企業代表來訪華。隨行代表團集結了蘋果、特斯拉、輝達、高通、美光、高盛、黑石、波音等17家全美頭部企業，覆蓋前沿科技、新能源、金融、航空、農業、能源等賽道。
從企業訴求來看，本次隨團企業普遍帶著明確的“拓市場、穩訂單”目標。農業巨頭急於鎖定中國這個全球最大的農產品消費市場，消化過剩產能。波音迫切需要來自中國的訂單支撐產能利用率，穩住全球供應鏈。而新能源、醫藥、數字經濟企業則瞄準中國市場的增長潛力，希望打破准入壁壘。
小編認為，隨團的企業所代表的產業賽道或將都有合作潛力，但受限於談判空間和底牌，有望率先進入合作快車道的產業可能只是其中一部分，別的產業還需要長期博弈。
On May 13, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in China with a delegation of business leaders. The entourage comprised 17 top U.S. corporations, including Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Micron, Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, and Boeing, spanning cutting-edge technology, new energy, finance, aviation, agriculture, and energy sectors.
Collectively, these companies share clear goals: expanding market access and stabilizing orders. Agricultural giants are eager to lock in China—the world’s largest consumer market for farm products—to absorb excess capacity. Boeing desperately needs Chinese orders to sustain production rates and shore up its global supply chain. Meanwhile, new energy, pharmaceuticals, and digital economy firms are targeting China’s growth potential, seeking to break down entry barriers.
In our view, while all industries represented hold cooperation potential, only some will enter a fast-track phase due to limited negotiation room and competing priorities. Others will require long-term strategic engagement.
縱觀這些年中美關係的冷熱變化，每次降溫後，農業貿易都是最先破冰、最穩緩衝的紐帶，是中美傳統合作的“基本盤”。
美國在大豆、玉米等土地密集型大宗農產品，以及轉基因育種、高端畜禽種源領域具備長期積累的技術與成本優勢。其大豆單產較全球平均水平高出17%，轉基因育種專利佔據全球超60%的市場份額，農業生產效率優勢顯著。
但近年來受全球極端氣候頻發、國際糧食供應鏈動盪影響，美國農產品出口面臨傳統市場需求波動、貿易壁壘增多的挑戰，本次隨團農業企業暗藏“穩定中國市場份額”的核心訴求，急需大規模、確定性的消費市場消化其過剩產能。
Throughout the ups and downs of China-U.S. relations over the years, agricultural trade has always been the first to break the ice and act as the most stable buffer, serving as the cornerstone of traditional bilateral cooperation.
The U.S. enjoys long-standing technological and cost advantages in land-intensive bulk farm products such as soybeans and corn, as well as in genetically modified breeding and high-end livestock breeding sources. Its soybean yield per unit area is 17% above the global average, and its GM breeding patents account for over 60% of the global market, reflecting remarkable agricultural efficiency.
In recent years, frequent extreme weather and turbulent global grain supply chains have left U.S. farm exports facing fluctuating demand and rising trade barriers. Agricultural enterprises in the U.S. delegation aim to secure market share in China and absorb excess output through large-scale, stable consumption demand.
而中國作為全球最大的農產品消費國，僅大豆年進口量就突破1億噸，佔全球大豆貿易總量的60%，長期面臨大宗農產品供給穩定性不足、原料成本受國際市場波動衝擊較大的壓力，尤其是國內養殖、糧油加工產業對大豆、玉米的需求持續剛性增長，單純依靠國內產能無法覆蓋缺口，穩定的進口管道是糧食安全戰略的重要組成部分，雙方需求恰好形成互補。
如果本次會面能夠從制度層面打通雙邊流通堵點，一方面將直接降低進口農產品的通關、檢驗成本，預計可帶動國內糧油加工、飼料生產企業的原料採購成本下降3%-5%，對應每年減少相關企業支出超200億元，有效緩解中下游產業成本壓力，進而傳導至終端消費市場，穩定居民食用油、肉類等基本民生商品價格，穩固國內糧食安全供給體系。
另一方面也將為中國優勢特色果蔬、精深加工農產品、水產品打通對美出口綠色通道。此前受檢驗檢疫標準不統一、准入流程漫長限制，中國柑橘、茶葉、特色水產等優質農產品在美國市場滲透率不足2%。如果會面效果良好，預計可帶動相關出口型農業企業的美國市場份額提升8%-10%。
As the world’s largest agricultural importer, China’s annual soybean imports alone exceed 100 million tons, accounting for 60% of global soybean trade. It has long grappled with unstable bulk grain supply and volatile raw material costs. Domestic breeding, grain and oil processing sectors see rigid rising demand for soybeans and corn, which domestic output cannot fully meet. Reliable import channels are vital to national food security, creating a natural complementary demand between the two sides.
If the meeting removes institutional barriers to bilateral trade, it will cut customs and inspection costs for agricultural imports, lowering raw material expenses for domestic grain, oil and feed producers by 3%–5%, saving over 20 billion yuan annually. This will ease cost pressure on mid- and downstream industries, stabilize prices of edible oil, meat and other daily necessities, and strengthen China’s food supply security.
Meanwhile, it will open a green channel for China’s competitive fruits, vegetables, processed agricultural goods and aquatic products to enter the U.S. market. Restricted by inconsistent quarantine standards and lengthy approval procedures, Chinese citrus, tea and specialty seafood hold less than 2% penetration in the U.S. A successful meeting is expected to lift their U.S. market share by 8%–10%.
波音新任CEO凱利·奧特伯格此行，堪稱救命之旅。
自1972年尼克松訪華開始，波音就是最早進入中國市場的美國航空巨頭。2017年川普訪華的時候，波音還簽下300架飛機大單。但受到後續安全事故和地緣政治影響，波音在中國市場陷入被動，這幾年訂單幾乎顆粒無收。此消彼長的是，中國商飛C919正在量產。
與此同時，當前中國民航業正處於國際航線全面復甦、機隊更新換代的關鍵周期。2026年第一季度，中國民航國際航線客運量同比增長10.0%，貨郵運輸量同比增長17.6%，國際旅遊、商務出行等跨境出行需求保持強勁增長態勢。行業回暖態勢明確。
Boeing’s new CEO Kelly Ortberg’s visit to China is nothing short of a lifeline mission.
Since Nixon’s visit in 1972, Boeing has been one of the earliest U.S. aerospace giants to enter China. During Trump’s 2017 visit, it secured a 300-aircraft deal. Yet, due to subsequent safety incidents and geopolitical tensions, Boeing has struggled in China, with virtually no new orders in recent years . Meanwhile, China’s COMAC C919 is now in mass production.
Concurrently, China’s civil aviation sector is in a critical phase: international routes recovery and fleet renewal. In Q1 2026, China’s international passenger traffic rose 10.0% YoY, cargo volume 17.6% YoY, with strong demand for cross-border travel. The industry’s recovery is clear.
再加上國內二三線城市支線機場建設持續推進，低空空域開放改革逐步落地，預計未來5年國內民航市場將新增客機需求超350架，民用航空市場規模將保持年均7%以上的增速，對應市場規模增量超過4000億元，是全球最具潛力的民航消費市場。
如果這次洽談成功，也會利多整個產業鏈上下游。國內航空零部件配套企業此前已經進入波音的全球供應鏈體系，隨著訂單交付加速，相關企業的訂單量預計將同比增長15%以上，對應產值增量超過120億元。同時，航空維修維運、飛行員培訓、航空配套服務等關聯產業也將迎來持續增長的市場空間，僅航空維修領域未來3年的市場增量就有望突破80億元。
Additionally, with ongoing construction of regional airports in tier-2/3 cities and gradual liberalization of low-altitude airspace, China’s civil aviation market is expected to see over 350 new aircraft orders in the next five years. The market will grow at >7% annually, adding over 400 billion yuan in value—making it the world’s most promising aviation market.
A successful deal would benefit the entire industrial chain. Chinese aerospace component suppliers are already in Boeing’s global supply chain. Faster deliveries could boost their orders by >15% YoY, adding >12 billion yuan in output. Meanwhile, aviation maintenance, pilot training, and related services will see sustained growth—the maintenance segment alone is expected to add >8 billion yuan in the next three years.
一是綠色低碳相關產業。中美在清潔能源技術、減排技術研發、傳統產業低碳改造等領域具備極強的互補性。美國在碳捕捉、碳封存等前沿技術領域積累深厚，本次隨團的相關能源企業正尋求在中國落地技術應用場景。中國則擁有全球最完整的新能源產業鏈，太陽能、風電元件產能佔全球比重超過70%，成本優勢顯著，能夠為美國本土低碳項目提供高性價比的裝備支援。
如果未來能在技術標準對接、項目聯合開發、碳交易市場互通等方面取得突破，將為新能源裝備製造、環保技術服務、低碳解決方案輸出等領域創造超千億元的市場空間。
First, green and low-carbon industries. China and the U.S. feature strong complementarity in clean energy technologies, emission reduction R&D, and low-carbon upgrading of traditional industries. The U.S. has built solid expertise in cutting-edge fields such as carbon capture and storage, and relevant energy companies in the delegation aim to launch technical applications in China.
China owns the world’s most complete new energy industrial chain, with photovoltaic and wind power component capacity accounting for over 70% of the global total. Its prominent cost advantage can provide cost-effective equipment for low-carbon projects in the United States. Breakthroughs in technical standard alignment, joint project development and carbon market connectivity will unlock a market worth over 100 billion yuan for new energy equipment manufacturing, environmental technology services and low-carbon solution exports.
二是醫療健康產業。美國在創新藥研發、高端醫療器械製造領域具備全球領先優勢，中國則擁有龐大的醫療消費市場和成熟的醫藥外包產能，雙方在罕見病藥物研發、老年醫療服務、智慧醫療技術落地等方面存在合作需求。會面順利的話，不僅將讓更多海外創新藥械更快進入中國市場，惠及國內患者，也將為國內CXO企業、特色醫療器械出口企業打開更廣闊的美國市場空間。
Second, the healthcare industry. The U.S. holds global leadership in innovative drug R&D and high-end medical device manufacturing, while China boasts a huge healthcare consumption market and mature pharmaceutical outsourcing capacity. Both sides share cooperation demand in rare disease drug development, elderly care services and smart medical technology implementation.
Smooth negotiations will accelerate the market access of more overseas innovative drugs and devices to benefit domestic patients, and also open broader U.S. market space for domestic CXO firms and specialized medical device exporters.
三是數字服務貿易領域。隨著全球數字經濟的快速發展，中美在跨境電商、數字支付、雲服務等領域的合作需求持續上升。美國是中國跨境電商的第一大出口目的地，本次隨團的美國電商平台、支付企業也暗藏深化雙邊數字貿易合作的意願。
如果雙方能在數字貿易規則協商、資料流動安全框架建構、智慧財產權跨境保護等方面形成共識，將為跨境電商平台、出海品牌企業、數字支付服務商等帶來顯著的政策紅利，相關市場規模未來3年有望保持15%以上的年均增速。
Third, digital service trade. With the rapid expansion of the global digital economy, cooperation demand between China and the U.S. keeps rising in cross-border e-commerce, digital payment and cloud services. The U.S. is China’s largest export destination for cross-border e-commerce, and U.S. e-commerce and payment enterprises in the delegation intend to deepen bilateral digital trade ties.
Consensus on digital trade rules, secure cross-border data flow frameworks and intellectual property protection will bring substantial policy dividends to cross-border e-commerce platforms, overseas brands and digital payment providers. The related market is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of over 15% in the next three years. (無界社Economic Views)