從東歐到中東，衝突升級與外交轉向為全球市場帶來動盪格局

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月01日 美東時間

摘要

• 俄羅斯在北約東翼邊界的軍事行動升級，此舉促使波蘭發出「擊落」警告並進行重大防禦部署。
• 在重大的外交進展中，許多歐洲國家已正式承認巴勒斯坦國。此一歷史性舉動孤立了以色列與美國。
• 以色列面臨日益增加的外交挑戰。中國採取了強烈的親巴勒斯坦立場，並因以色列官員與台灣的接觸而對其發出直接警告。
• 美國重新對委內瑞拉實施石油制裁。此舉是在總統馬杜羅採取反民主行動之後，並強化了委內瑞拉與美國敵對陣營的結盟。
• 這些各自獨立的危機，共同創造了一個高度動盪的全球環境。區域衝突日益受到強權競爭的影響，這增加了誤判的可能性。

對投資者的投資組合而言，地緣政治事件現已成為主要的風險來源。自2008年以來，各國政府與央行的干預，持續透過前所未有的財政與貨幣支持，來設法管理經濟與市場風險。此一政策方針使得市場對地緣政治衝擊更加敏感，而地緣政治衝擊正是當前市場波動的主要來源。隨著全球股市再度觸及估值過高的區域，投資者應密切關注世界各地的這些局勢。

歐洲東部戰線，情勢一觸即發

東歐的緊張局勢已加劇。俄羅斯正在加強其對北約的恫嚇行動。此侵略行為伴隨著一連串的直接挑釁。近幾週，俄羅斯無人機侵犯了波蘭與羅馬尼亞的領空，俄羅斯戰鬥機亦曾進入愛沙尼亞領空。

這些入侵行動是一種旨在測試北約反應時間與政治決心的策略。對此，北約的回應一直很堅定。波蘭宣布將擊落任何未經許可進入其領土的俄羅斯飛機。美國前總統川普亦支持此政策，敦促聯盟採取更具侵略性的威懾姿態。北約已擴大其在東翼的空中警務與防禦部署。包括法國、德國、丹麥和英國在內的主要成員國，已向該地區額外部署戰鬥機。此行動從波羅的海到黑海，建立了一道堅實的防空屏障。局勢依然充滿危險，任何誤判都可能導致核武大國之間的直接軍事對抗。

第四條款與第五條款

北約成員國正利用第四條款的協商機制，來應對低於直接攻擊門檻的威脅。此機制是該聯盟管理政治危機與防止事態升級的主要工具。理解其運作方式，對於評估更大範圍戰爭的風險至關重要。

第四條款是北約的協商條款。它允許任何成員國在感到其領土完整、政治獨立或安全受到威脅時，召集北大西洋理事會會議。這是一個用於對話而非軍事行動的工具。在俄羅斯2022年入侵烏克蘭後，波蘭、立陶宛、拉脫維亞和愛沙尼亞立即援引了第四條款。土耳其也曾為應對敘利亞內戰而多次援引。這為投資者帶來一個問題：如果更多國家同時援引第四條款，市場將如何反應？

第五條款是該聯盟的基石：集體防禦條款。它規定，對一個成員國的武裝攻擊，將被視為對全體成員的攻擊。此條款強制所有成員國協助受攻擊的一方。在北約歷史上，第五條款僅被援引過一次，即2001年9月11日恐怖攻擊後由美國援引。

俄羅斯的混合戰術，其目的似乎是在測試第四條款的極限，同時避免觸發第五條款的軍事反應。

歐洲在巴勒斯坦問題上政策大轉向

在一項具里程碑意義的協同決策中，英國、加拿大、澳洲及許多歐盟成員國已正式承認一個獨立的巴勒斯坦國。此舉代表了許多西方國家傳統政策的巨大轉變。此前，這些國家認為，建國是以色列與巴勒斯坦談判達成和平協議後的結果。

此一承認是國際社會對加薩戰爭及以色列在約旦河西岸擴張屯墾區的挫敗感日益增長的直接後果。該決定實際上孤立了以色列政府及其主要盟友美國。美國官員表示，巴勒斯坦建國應透過直接談判實現，而非單方面承認。以色列總理納坦雅胡則拒絕了這些國家的聲明。來自歐洲國家的外交壓力，標誌著該地區的重大發展，並使以色列在外交上比以往更加四面楚歌。

中以關係緊繃

以色列面臨的外交壓力不僅限於西方。總理納坦雅胡指控中國主導一場針對以色列的社交媒體運動，這指向了兩國之間更深層且迅速惡化的關係。多年來，中國與以色列維持著務實的夥伴關係，聚焦於科技與貿易。然而，加薩戰爭使他們的政治分歧浮上檯面。中國利用這場衝突，將自己定位為「全球南方」與巴勒斯坦事業的擁護者。它在聯合國一再呼籲立即停火，並批評美國對以色列的支持。

此摩擦已超越了言詞交鋒。在以色列國會議員Boaz Toporovsky率領一個議會代表團訪問台灣後，中國駐以色列大使館最近對他發出了直接威脅。一份使館聲明警告說，他將會「摔得粉身碎骨」。這種針對民選官員的侵略性語言，標誌著雙邊關係的新低點。對北京視為叛亂省份的台灣進行訪問，觸動了中國最敏感的政治紅線。日益加劇的敵意是多面向的。它源於巴勒斯坦問題，也源於以色列在攸關中國核心利益的議題上與西方強權的結盟。平靜的經濟合作已讓位給公開的外交敵對。

美國與委內瑞拉

另一場長期的衝突正在美洲地區重新浮現。美國與委內瑞拉之間的緊張關係再次爆發。拜登政府去年因總統馬杜羅未能確保自由公平的選舉，而對卡拉卡斯重新實施石油制裁。現在，川普更積極地向委內瑞拉派遣戰艦與部隊，指控馬杜羅政權與墨西哥販毒集團協同販毒。

此一重新施加的經濟壓力，標誌著美國重返更具對抗性的政策。這場對峙不僅是一場區域爭端，也成為強權競爭的另一個競技場。馬杜羅政府已與美國的對手國家，包括俄羅斯、中國和伊朗，培養了牢固的關係。這些國家為其提供經濟、軍事和外交支持。重新實施的制裁，進一步將委內瑞拉推向這個反美集團的懷抱。

投資組合在高風險世界中的應對之道

此一不斷升級的地緣政治不穩定性，為投資者的投資組合帶來了新的挑戰。全球股市已達到高估值水平，使其容易受到地緣政治衝擊的修正影響。衝突擴大的前景，引入了當前股價尚未完全反映的風險程度。投資者應自問，自己的投資組合該如何準備，以應對動搖市場信心的特定地緣政治事件。

投資者情緒正轉向黃金和貴金屬作為避險資產。此趨勢突顯了尋求資本保值的投資者內心的深層焦慮。能源市場也正在為更高的風險溢價定價。中東地區供應中斷的可能性增加，而對委內瑞拉的制裁則收緊了全球供應。更廣泛的衝突將威脅關鍵航運路線，進而助燃全球通膨。

監控這些快速變化的趨勢，對於管理波動至關重要。我們專有的趨勢分析工具，旨在協助您追蹤市場方向並識別動能的轉變。使用這些工具能提供分析優勢，以協助您減輕投資組合的風險。歡迎加入我們的LINE群組，以獲取我們對美國和台灣主要股票與ETF的分析工具。

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Geopolitical Risks Update

Escalating Conflicts and Diplomatic Shifts from Eastern Europe to the Middle East Create Conditions for Volatility in Global Markets.

By Joe 盧, CFA | September 29, 2025

Executive Summary

• Russia’s military actions on NATO’s eastern border escalate. These actions prompt a significant defensive buildup and a "shoot-down" warning from Poland.
• In a major diplomatic development, man European nations have officially recognized a Palestinian state. This historic move isolates Israel and the U.S.
• Israel faces increasing diplomatic challenges. China has adopted a strong pro-Palestinian stance and issued direct warnings to Israeli officials over their engagement with Taiwan.
• The United States reimposed oil sanctions on Venezuela. The move follows President Maduro's anti-democratic actions and strengthens Venezuela's alignment with U.S. adversaries.
• These separate crises create a highly volatile global environment. Regional conflicts are increasingly influenced by great-power competition, which increases the potential for miscalculation.

Geopolitical events now represent a primary source of risk for your portfolio. Since 2008, governments and central bank intervention has consistently sought to manage economic and market risks through unprecedented fiscal and monetary support. This policy approach makes markets more sensitive to geopolitical shocks, which are the primary source of market volatility currently. As stock markets around the world reach overvalued territory again, investors should be monitoring these situations around the world carefully.

Europe's Eastern Front on a Knife's Edge

Tensions in Eastern Europe have intensified. Russia is increasing its campaign of intimidation against NATO. This aggression accompanies a pattern of direct provocations. In recent weeks, Russian drones violated the airspace of Poland and Romania. Russian fighter jets also entered Estonian airspace.

These incursions are a strategy to test NATO's response times and political resolve. The response has been firm. Poland announced it will shoot down any Russian aircraft that enters its territory without permission. Former U.S. President Donald Trump supported this policy, urging the alliance to adopt a more aggressive deterrent posture. NATO has expanded its air policing and defensive posture on its eastern flank. Key members, including France, Germany, Denmark, and the United Kingdom, deployed additional fighter jets to the region. This action creates a robust air defense shield from the Baltics to the Black Sea. The situation remains fraught with peril. A miscalculation could lead to a direct military confrontation between nuclear-armed powers.

Article 4 and Article 5

NATO members are using Article 4 consultations to respond to threats below the threshold of direct attack. This mechanism is the alliance's primary tool for managing political crises and preventing escalation. Understanding how it functions is critical for assessing the risk of a wider war.

• Article 4 is NATO’s consultation clause. It allows any member nation to convene a meeting of the North Atlantic Council when it feels its territorial integrity, political independence, or security is threatened. It is a tool for dialogue, not military action. Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia invoked Article 4 immediately following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Turkey has also invoked it multiple times in response to the Syrian civil war. This raises a question for you: how would markets react if more nations invoke Article 4 simultaneously?
• Article 5 is the cornerstone of the alliance: the collective defense clause. It states that an armed attack against one member is an attack against all. This provision compels all member states to assist the attacked party. Article 5 has been invoked only once in NATO's history, by the United States after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

Russia's hybrid tactics appear designed to test the limits of Article 4 without triggering the military response of Article 5.

Europe Pivots on Palestine

In a landmark, coordinated decision, the U.K., Canada, Australia, and many European Union members have officially recognized an independent Palestinian state. This move represents a monumental departure from the traditional policy of many Western nations. Previously, these nations held that statehood was an outcome of a negotiated peace agreement with Israel.

The recognition is a direct consequence of growing international frustration over the war in Gaza and the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. The decision effectively isolates the Israeli government and its primary ally, the United States. U.S. officials stated that a Palestinian state should be realized through direct negotiations, not unilateral recognition. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the announcements. This diplomatic pressure from European nations marks a significant development in the region, and leaves Israel more diplomatically embattled than before.

Sino-Israeli Relations Under Strain

The diplomatic pressure on Israel is not limited to the West. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s accusation of a Chinese-led social media campaign points to a deeper and rapidly deteriorating relationship with Beijing. For years, China and Israel maintained a pragmatic partnership focused on technology and trade. The war in Gaza has brought their political differences to the forefront. China has used the conflict to position itself as a champion of the Global South and the Palestinian cause. It repeatedly called for an immediate ceasefire at the United Nations and criticized U.S. support of Israel.

This friction has moved beyond rhetoric. The Chinese Embassy in Israel recently issued a direct threat to Boaz Toporovsky, a member of the Knesset, after he led a parliamentary delegation to Taiwan. An embassy statement warned that he would "fall and be shattered to pieces." This aggressive language targeting a democratically elected official signifies a new low in bilateral relations. The visit to Taiwan, which Beijing considers a renegade province, touched upon China's most sensitive political red line. The growing animosity is multifaceted. It stems from the Palestinian issue and from Israel's alignment with Western powers on issues vital to China's core interests. Quiet economic cooperation has given way to open diplomatic hostility.

The U.S. and Venezuela

Another long-standing conflict is re-emerging in the Americas. Tensions have once again flared between the United States and Venezuela. The Biden administration, last year, reimposed oil sanctions on Caracas over the failure of President Nicolás Maduro's government to ensure free and fair elections. Now, Trump has actively sent warships and troops to Venezuela, accusing the Maduro regime of trafficking drugs in coordination with Mexican cartels.

This renewed economic pressure signals a return to a more confrontational U.S. policy. The standoff is a regional dispute and serves as another arena for great-power competition. Maduro’s government has cultivated strong ties with U.S. rivals, including Russia, China, and Iran. These countries provide economic, military, and diplomatic support. The reimposition of sanctions pushes Venezuela further into the embrace of this anti-U.S. bloc.

Your Portfolio in a High-Risk World

This escalating geopolitical instability creates new challenges for your portfolio. Global equity markets have reached high valuation levels, making them susceptible to a correction from geopolitical shocks. The prospect of widening conflicts introduces a level of risk current stock prices do not fully reflect. You should ask how your portfolio is prepared to handle a specific geopolitical event that shakes market confidence.

Investor sentiment is shifting toward gold and precious metals as safe haven assets. This trend underscores a deep anxiety among investors seeking to preserve capital. Energy markets are also pricing in higher risk premiums. The potential for disruptions in the Middle East grows, and sanctions on Venezuela tighten global supply. A wider conflict threatens key shipping lanes, which would fuel global inflation.

Monitoring these fast-moving trends is crucial for managing volatility. Our proprietary trend analysis tools are designed to help you track market direction and identify shifts in momentum. Using these tools provides an analytical edge to help you mitigate risk in your portfolio. Join our LINE group to access these tools on the largest U.S. and Taiwan stocks and ETFs.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。