Wild Stock Moves Ahead
股市劇烈波動在即
Note the following:
請注意以下幾點：
- Semiconductors are the leading sector that drove the stock market higher. SOXL is the momo crowd's favorite semiconductor ETF.
- The chart shows SOXL rallied to the bottom band of zone 2 (resistance) but was not able to sustain the rally to get to the top band of zone 2. This is a negative.
- The chart shows that SOXL has pulled back to the top band of zone 3 (support).
- RSI on the chart shows that SOXL is approaching an oversold level and thus could bounce.
- The chart shows that this morning there is selling in semiconductors. Semiconductors are being sold this morning in the U.S. in sympathy with SSamsung Electronics Co Ltd(OTCPK:SSNLF) crash in South Korea. Samsung stock in South Korea fell 8.7% overnight for the following reasons:
- The selloff was a classic 'sell the news' reaction. We previously shared with you that Samsung stock had rallied in anticipation of a shareholder return plan.
- There was disappointment in the structure of the Samsung plan. Samsung's plan has an unprecedented 90T – 100T won for shareholder payout that investors like, but investors did not like that there was not an immediate, aggressive share buyback or a timeline for Treasury stock cancellations.
- Prudent investors should note that when foreigners sold Samsung stock in South Korea overnight, South Korean retail traders took advantage of the dip and bought Samsung stock.
- Stock market investors should keep in mind that more important than Samsung price action is Nvidia (NVDA) earnings that will be released Wednesday after the close.
- Not as important as Nvidia, but still fairly important to the stock market are Marvell (MRVL) earnings that will be released Thursday after the close.In our analysis, Marvell earnings will be an important data point for the next phase of AI.
- Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada are breaking down. Canada is suspending negotiations, and beginning at midnight tonight, the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on $28B in goods. The Canadian government is planning to match the tariffs to insulate its businesses and people from the effects of U.S. tariffs.
- Prudent investors should pay attention that Anthropic's Fable 5 has weaker demand than anticipated. In our analysis, if this continues, this is a big risk for the AI trade even though the crowd is oblivious at this time.
- NYSE and Nasdaq are planning 23 hours a day stock trading starting December 6. This will be very lucrative for the exchanges and Wall Street as they will be able to attract foreign investors, especially from Asia. In our analysis, for most investors, 23 hour trading will increase the risk. The reason is that there will be low liquidity. Due to low liquidity, stocks can have wild moves, especially in response to news. The following regular trading session will likely be significantly impacted by overnight violent moves. We are already witnessing wild moves in U.S. stocks in the early trade based on what happens in South Korea overnight.
- On the positive side for the markets today, yields are pulling back. The reason is the Treasury could use its $1T general account, Treasury's rainy day fund equivalent, for bond buybacks. We previously shared with you that after the initial euphoria on the Treasury's buyback announcement, the move was faded by smart money. The reason was that the amount of the buybacks was not significant and there was concern that Treasury Secretary Bessent did not have enough fire power. In our analysis, if the Treasury is willing to use the general account fund for bond buybacks, the Treasury has enormous firepower to direct the markets.
- In our analysis, the harder the Treasury tries to deal with the adverse effect of the $40T national debt without reducing the deficit, the more investors are convinced that the Treasury is trying to debase the dollar and are rushing into gold and bitcoin. In the long run, this is a big risk for the U.S. stock market that is generally not appreciated by the crowd at this time. Prudent investors should get ahead of the curve and be very mindful of this risk.
- Bessent is saying that an "economic D-Day" is coming for Iran. In our analysis, prudent investors should get ahead of the risk here that Iran could respond with more attacks on ships or Gulf countries.
- In our analysis, while investors need to be mindful of the risks, they should also be open to the tremendous opportunities that the next phase of AI and other innovations will bring to investors.
- 半導體是推動股市上漲的領先類股。SOXL是動量交易者（momo crowd）最青睞的半導體ETF。
- 圖表顯示，SOXL反彈至第2區間（阻力位）的下軌，但未能維持漲勢以觸及第2區間的上軌。這是一個負面信號。
- 圖表顯示，SOXL已回落至第3區間（支撐位）的上軌。
- 圖表上的RSI指標顯示，SOXL正接近超賣水平，因此可能出現反彈。
- 圖表顯示，今天上午半導體類股出現拋售。美國市場上的半導體股票今早因韓國三星電子有限公司（OTCPK:SSNLF）在韓國的股價暴跌而跟跌。三星電子在韓國的股票隔夜下跌了8.7%，原因如下：
- 此次拋售是典型的「利多出盡」反應。我們此前曾向您指出，三星股價此前因市場預期其將推出股東回報計劃而上漲。
- 市場對三星計劃的具體結構感到失望。三星計劃向股東派發史無前例的90兆至100兆韓元，這一點受到投資者歡迎，但投資者不滿的是，該計劃並未包含立即且激進的股票回購措施，也未明確庫存股註銷的時間表。
- 謹慎的投資者應注意，當外國投資者隔夜在韓國拋售三星股票時，韓國散戶投資者趁機逢低買入了三星股票。
- 股市投資者應牢記，比起三星的股價走勢，更重要的是輝達（NVDA）將於周三盤後公佈的業績。
- 雖然不如輝達重要，但對股市而言仍相當重要的是Marvell（MRVL）將於周四盤後公佈的業績。在我們的分析中，Marvell的業績將成為人工智慧下一階段的重要數據點。
- 美國與加拿大的貿易談判正在破裂。加拿大已暫停談判，從今晚午夜起，美國將對$280億的商品徵收50%的關稅。加拿大政府計劃採取對等關稅措施，以保護本國企業和民眾免受美國關稅的影響。
- 謹慎的投資者應注意，Anthropic的Fable 5需求弱於預期。在我們的分析中，如果這種情況持續下去，即使市場目前對此毫無察覺，也將對人工智慧相關投資構成重大風險。
- 紐約證券交易所和納斯達克計劃從12月6日起實行每日23小時股票交易。這對交易所和華爾街而言將非常有利可圖，因為他們將能夠吸引外國投資者，尤其是來自亞洲的投資者。在我們的分析中，對大多數投資者而言，23小時交易將增加風險。原因是屆時流動性將較低。由於流動性不足，股票可能出現劇烈波動，尤其是在對新聞事件作出反應時。隨後的常規交易時段很可能會受到隔夜劇烈波動的顯著影響。我們已經看到，基於韓國股市隔夜走勢，美國股票在早盤交易中出現了劇烈波動。
- 對市場而言，今日的積極因素是收益率正在回落。原因是財政部可動用其$1兆的一般帳戶——相當於財政部的應急儲備金——用於債券回購。我們此前曾向您指出，在財政部宣佈回購計劃初期市場一度樂觀，但隨後被聰明資金逐步平倉。原因在於回購規模並不顯著，且市場擔心財政部長貝森特缺乏足夠的政策火力。在我們的分析中，如果財政部願意動用一般帳戶資金進行債券回購，那麼財政部就擁有巨大的市場引導能力。
- 在我們的分析中，財政部越是試圖在不削減赤字的情況下應對$40兆國債的負面影響，投資者就越相信財政部有意削弱美元價值，從而紛紛湧入黃金和比特幣。從長期來看，這對美國股市構成重大風險，而目前市場普遍尚未意識到這一點。謹慎的投資者應未雨綢繆，高度重視這一風險。
- 貝森特表示，伊朗即將迎來「經濟D日」。在我們的分析中，謹慎的投資者應提前防範相關風險，即伊朗可能以進一步襲擊船隻或海灣國家作為回應。
- 在我們的分析中，儘管投資者需警惕相關風險，但也應積極把握人工智慧及其他創新在下一階段為投資者帶來的巨大機遇。
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
科技七巨頭資金流向
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
目前大多數投資組合高度集中於科技七巨頭股票。因此，為了搶佔先機並獲得優勢，投資者需要深入挖掘科技七巨頭股票表象之下的實質。同樣重要的是，要超越關於科技七巨頭股票的日常新聞噪音。要獲得優勢、深入挖掘實質並超越日常新聞噪音的最佳方式，就是每日密切關注科技七巨頭股票的早期資金流向。當科技七巨頭股票出現顯著新聞、突破噪音閾值並對您的整體投資組合產生影響時，相關內容已在上文主章節中涵蓋。
In the early trade, money flows are positive inApple Inc(NASDAQ:AAPL) andNVIDIA Corp(NASDAQ:NVDA).
在早盤交易中，Apple Inc（納斯達克：AAPL）和NVIDIA Corp（納斯達克：NVDA）的資金流向為正。
In the early trade, money flows are neutral inAmazon.com, Inc.(NASDAQ:AMZN),Meta Platforms Inc(NASDAQ:META), andMicrosoft Corp(NASDAQ:MSFT).
在早盤交易中，亞馬遜公司（納斯達克：AMZN）、Meta Platforms公司（納斯達克：META）和微軟公司（納斯達克：MSFT）的資金流向呈中性。
In the early trade, money flows are negative inAlphabet Inc Class C(NASDAQ:GOOG) andTesla Inc(NASDAQ:TSLA).
在早盤交易中，Alphabet Inc Class C（納斯達克：GOOG）和特斯拉（納斯達克：TSLA）的資金流向為負。
In the early trade, money flows are negative inSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(NYSE:SPY) andInvesco QQQ Trust Series 1(NASDAQ:QQQ).
在早盤交易中，標普500指數ETF-SPDR（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）和納指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust（納斯達克代碼：QQQ）的資金流為負。
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
散戶與聰明錢在股票中的動向
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold isSPDR Gold Trust(NYSE:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver isiShares Silver Trust(NYSE:SLV). The most popular ETF for oil isUnited States Oil ETF(NYSE:USO).
投資者通過瞭解SPY和QQQ的資金流向可以獲得優勢。若進一步掌握聰明資金買入股票、黃金和原油的時機，則可獲得更大優勢。黃金最熱門的ETF是SPDR Gold Trust（紐約證券交易所：GLD）。白銀最熱門的ETF是iShares Silver Trust（紐約證券交易所：SLV）。原油最熱門的ETF是United States Oil ETF（紐約證券交易所：USO）。
Bitcoin
比特幣
Bitcoin(CRYPTO:BTC) is seeing buying.
比特幣（CRYPTO:BTC）正出現買入。
What To Do Now
當前應採取的行動
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions and add tactical positions based on signals.
考慮繼續持有優質的、超長期的現有頭寸，並根據信號增加戰術性頭寸。
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The Arora Report以其精準的預測而聞名。The Arora Report曾率先準確預測了人工智慧的大漲行情、2023年的新一輪牛市、2022年的熊市、2020年疫情低點後股市迅速創出新高、2020年的疫情暴跌、道瓊斯工業平均指數從16,000點上漲至30,000的行情、2009年開啓的超級大牛市，以及2008年的金融危機。請點擊此處免費訂閱永久有效的Generate Wealth Newsletter。 (Benzinga)