財政部網站消息，2025年4月23日至24日，二十國集團（G20）主席國南非在美國華盛頓舉行今年第二次G20財長和央行行長會議。會議主要就全球宏觀經濟形勢和金融穩定、國際金融架構以及促進非洲增長和發展等議題進行了討論。財政部部長藍佛安出席會議並行言，副部長廖岷陪同參會。藍佛安表示，當前世界經濟增長動能不足，關稅戰、貿易戰進一步影響經濟金融穩定。中方堅定維護以世界貿易組織為核心的多邊貿易體制，主張通過平等對話協商解決貿易和關稅爭議，也將堅定維護自身正當權益。各方應通過加強多邊合作進一步完善國際經濟金融體系，積極推動多邊開發銀行改革，有效推進國際復興開發銀行股權審議，務實完善《緩債倡議後續債務處理共同框架》實施，激勵國際金融機構和私營部門為脆弱國家應對債務和流動性挑戰提供更多支援。各方應為非洲發展匯聚更多資源，加強非洲機構能力建設，以數位化和綠色轉型為契機為非洲經濟增長注入新動能。藍佛安還重點介紹了中國經濟穩中向好態勢及政策取向和中國支援非洲發展的重要舉措。會議期間，藍佛安分別同G20主席國南非財長戈東瓜納、歐盟委員會經濟與生產力委員東布羅夫斯基斯、巴基斯坦財長奧朗則布、德國財長庫基斯、韓國經濟副總理兼企劃財政部部長崔相穆、印尼財長英卓華、英國財政大臣里夫斯、日本財政大臣加藤勝信和世行行長彭安傑等舉行雙邊會見或交流，主要就宏觀經濟形勢、G20財金管道重點議題及雙邊合作等交換意見。副部長廖岷陪同參加。(觀察者網)

預測一：全球經濟——溫和反彈 高盛還是看好2025年的全球經濟，預估實際GDP增速能到2.7%。這個數字主要來自居民收入的提升，以及相對寬鬆的金融環境。美國生產率增幅比其他發達市場（DM）更搶眼，可能繼續扮演“領跑者”的角色。另外多個發達經濟體的核心通膨有望在年底前回落至各自目標水平，全球通膨壓力隨之減弱。 對中國來說，如果全球經濟整體向好，出口會比較穩當。通膨壓力一旦同步緩解，中國在貨幣政策上能更靈活，不用過度擔心輸入性通膨，騰出手來重點扶持國內消費和新興產業。當然，川普的關稅政策還是一根攪屎棍。 預測二：美國經濟

Global Economics Analyst Macro Outlook 2025 Tailwinds (Probably) Trump Tariffs We expect the second Trump administration to bring higher China and auto tariffs, much lower immigration, some fresh tax cuts, and regulatory easing. If so, the US economy should grow 2.5% in 2025, outperforming consensus expectations and other DM economies for the third year in a row. The biggest risk is a large across-the-board tariff, which would likely hit growth hard. We have cut our Euro area GDP forecast to a below-consensus 0.8%, reflecting ongoing structural headwinds and a hit from trade policy uncertainty. We have also shaved our 2025 China GDP forecast to 4.5% because of higher US tariffs that are only partially offset by easier macro policies. Risks in both Europe and China are on the downside if tariffs increase beyond our baseline. US core PCE inflation should slow to 2.4% by late 2025, higher than our prior forecast of 2.0% but still benign. Our forecast would rise to around 3% with an across-the-board tariff of 10%. In the Euro area, we expect core inflation to slow to 2% by late 2025 and are less concerned about upside risks even with a broader trade war. Lowflation risks have abated in Japan.

Global Economics Analyst Macro Outlook 2025 Tailwinds (Probably) Trump Tariffs We expect the second Trump administration to bring higher China and auto tariffs, much lower immigration, some fresh tax cuts, and regulatory easing. If so, the US economy should grow 2.5% in 2025, outperforming consensus expectations and other DM economies for the third year in a row. The biggest risk is a large across-the-board tariff, which would likely hit growth hard. We have cut our Euro area GDP forecast to a below-consensus 0.8%, reflecting ongoing structural headwinds and a hit from trade policy uncertainty. We have also shaved our 2025 China GDP forecast to 4.5% because of higher US tariffs that are only partially offset by easier macro policies. Risks in both Europe and China are on the downside if tariffs increase beyond our baseline. US core PCE inflation should slow to 2.4% by late 2025, higher than our prior forecast of 2.0% but still benign. Our forecast would rise to around 3% with an across-the-board tariff of 10%. In the Euro area, we expect core inflation to slow to 2% by late 2025 and are less concerned about upside risks even with a broader trade war. Lowflation risks have abated in Japan.

摘要 2024年美國大選投票進入倒計時階段，選情焦灼、結果難料。選舉的四種場景對美國乃至全球宏觀經濟的影響有顯著差異，關鍵是政策落地情況，對大類資產的影響形態上更多是脈衝式的。 （一）賀錦麗與川普的政策比較：賀錦麗向左，川普向右，關注中間選民立場 距離大選不足一個月，川普支援率再度領先。截至10月10日，RCP綜合民調顯示川普支援率47.2%，賀錦麗49%。七個搖擺州當中，川普在密歇根、佐治亞、亞利桑那、北卡、賓州、內華達六個州領先，賀錦麗僅在威斯康星州領先。Predictit顯示，川普勝選機率再度超越賀錦麗，已達到54%。