理解投資於美國以外的已開發市場的風險與回報Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年9月23日摘要美國以外的已開發市場透過提供對歐洲、澳洲和日本等成熟經濟體的曝險，為投資組合提供了必要的多元化，有助於減少美國投資者普遍存在的以美國為中心的投資焦點。此資產類別的特點是其獨特的產業分佈概況，以金融和工業股為主，且歷史上提供了比美國股票更具吸引力的估值和更高的股息殖利率。投資者必須考慮不利的貨幣波動風險，這可能侵蝕以美元為基礎的投資者的回報；以及這些已開發經濟體潛在的較慢長期成長。是否納入此一曝險取決於個人的目標，但其近期的表現和具吸引力的估值，已再次確認其作為建構全球均衡投資組合關鍵組成部分的角色。僅供教育內容 — 並非投資建議、推薦。過往表現不保證未來結果。資料來源: Stockcharts.com當前發展更新於 2025年9月23日以下是專業觀察家經常討論的議題：績效週期: 在美國市場長期領漲之後，非美國市場近期展現出強勁的相對表現。觀察家們正關注這是否標誌著一個由國際市場主導的、新的多年期週期的開始。估值價差: 美國與美國以外的已開發市場之間的估值差距，仍是一個關鍵的討論點，許多分析師強調國際股票的相對可負擔性。貨幣背景: 美元的走向受到密切關注，因其變動能顯著影響美國投資者的回報。資料來源: 加拿大皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Canada)投資因子描述此投資因子提供對美國和加拿大以外的已開發國家大中型公司的股權曝險，主要集中在歐洲、日本和澳大拉西亞。它是全球投資組合多元化的基礎工具。核心曝險: 提供對成熟的國際經濟體的投資，通常被稱為EAFE（歐洲、澳大拉西亞和遠東）。關鍵多元化效益: 提供對不同貨幣（歐元、日圓、英鎊）、不同經濟週期，以及獨特產業組合的曝險，相較於以科技股為主的美國市場，其在金融和工業股的比重通常較高。歷史特徵: 相對於美國股票，有時提供了較低的估值指標（本益比）和較高的股息殖利率。主要風險: 包括不利的貨幣換算可能影響美元回報，以及這些成熟經濟體固有的較慢長期成長前景。資料來源: 貝萊德(Blackrock)此投資因子的歷史系統性地投資於美國以外地區的概念並不新穎，其歷史解釋了它的重要性。在1970年代，一致的指數定義被創造出來，最終使投資者能夠可靠地追蹤其他已開發國家股票的表現。這是一個關鍵的發展，因為儘管美國是全球單一最大且最深的股票市場，但它仍僅佔全球股票市場總市值的一半左右。認知到這一點，大型機構投資者在1980年代和1990年代，將一部分投資組合配置到這些美國以外的市場成為標準做法，主要目的是為了對抗「本土偏好」——即忽視全球另外50%投資機會的自然傾向。EAFE國家代表了這些其他的市場中心，它們不僅發展成熟，而且採納了與美國類似的市場結構和規則，使它們成為投資者熟悉的領域。這段作為一個定義明確類別的、長期而穩定的歷史，使其成為分析全球經濟週期和實現超越單一國家財富多元化的不可或-缺的工具。投資組合特徵在此，投資不僅僅是改變格局，它還將改變了您股票曝險的本質。多元化: 這是主要優勢。透過增加對不同經濟週期和貨幣的曝險，您可以減少投資組合對美國市場表現的依賴。當美國市場 zig (上漲) 時，歐洲或日本不同的經濟環境可能導致那些市場 zag (下跌)。不同的產業組合: 美國市場嚴重偏向超大型科技公司。相較之下，美國以外的已開發市場在金融（全球性銀行和保險公司）和工業（工程和製造巨頭）的比重通常較大，從而產生不同的風險和回報概況。價值與收益的視角: 歷史上，這些市場有時以較低的估值（本益比和股價淨值比）交易，並提供比美國股票更高的股息殖利率。儘管這隨時間而變化，但它通常吸引尋求潛在價值或穩定收入來源的投資者。資料來源: 貝萊德(Blackrock)左側的「美國市場」，其股票市值有很大一部分在資訊科技（Information Technology）領域。相較之下，「美國以外的已開發市場」則顯示其最大的市值在金融和工業領域，展現了經濟引擎的差異。資料來源: 貝萊德(Blackrock)投資風險每項投資都帶有風險，了解此處的特定風險很重要。貨幣兌換: 這是最獨特的風險。假設您在歐洲的股票上漲了10%，但同時，歐元的價值兌美元下跌了8%。當您將收益換算回美元時，您的實際回報僅約2%。強勢的美元可能成為逆風，而弱勢的美元則可能成為順風。經濟與政策差異: 歐洲、日本和英國的央行獨立於美國聯準會運作。不同的通膨率和利率政策，可能導致其市場表現與美國截然不同。國家集中度: 少數幾個國家——通常是日本、英國、法國、瑞士和德國——佔了指數的很大一部分。這些特定國家的經濟健康狀況，將對整體表現產生重大影響。結構性成長: 這些國家大多是人口老化的成熟經濟體，這可能導致長期盈餘成長相較於美國或新興市場較慢。因此，股息通常在總回報中佔有較大的比例。免責聲明：本資料僅供參考與教育目的，不構成投資、法律、稅務或會計建議；亦非出售任何證券的要約或購買的邀約。決策應考量個人的目標、限制與風險承受能力。過往表現並不預示未來結果。A Guide to Non-U.S. Developed MarketsUnderstanding the Risks and Rewards of Investing in Developed Markets Outside the U.S.Executive SummaryNon-U.S. developed markets provide essential portfolio diversification by offering exposure to the mature economies of Europe, Australia and Japan, helping to reduce the U.S.-centric investment focus commonly found with U.S. investors.This asset class is characterized by its distinct sector profile, heavy in Financials and Industrials, and has historically offered more attractive valuations and higher dividend yields than U.S. stocks.Investors must consider the primary risks of adverse currency fluctuations, which can erode returns for a U.S. dollar-based investor, and the potential for slower long-term growth in these developed economies.Whether to include this exposure depends on an individual's objectives, but its recent performance and compelling valuations have reaffirmed its role as a key component for building a globally balanced portfolio.Educational content only — not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.Source: Stockcharts.comCurrent DevelopmentsUpdated 2025-09-23Here is what professional observers are often discussing:Performance Cycles: After a long period where U.S. markets led, non-U.S. markets have shown strong relative performance recently. Observers are watching to see if this marks a new multi-year cycle of international leadership.Valuation Spreads: The valuation gap between the U.S. and non-U.S. developed markets remains a key point of discussion, with many analysts highlighting the relative affordability of international stocks.Currency Backdrop: The direction of the U.S. dollar is being closely watched, as its movements can significantly impact returns for U.S.-based investors.Source: Royal Bank of CanadaInvestment Factor DescriptionThis investment factor provides equity exposure to the large- and mid-cap companies of developed countries outside of the U.S. and Canada, primarily concentrated in Europe, Japan, and Australasia. It serves as a foundational tool for global portfolio diversification.Core Exposure: Offers a stake in mature, international economies, often referred to as EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East).Key Diversification Benefits: Provides exposure to distinct currencies (Euro, Yen, Pound), different economic cycles, and a unique sector mix that is often heavier in Financials and Industrials compared to the tech-focused U.S. market.Historical Characteristics: Has at times offered lower valuation metrics (P/E ratios) and higher dividend yields relative to U.S. equities.Primary Risks: Includes the potential for adverse currency translation to impact U.S. dollar returns and the slower long-term growth prospects inherent in these mature economies.Source: BlackrockInvestment Factor HistoryThe concept of systematically investing outside the U.S. isn't new, and its history explains its importance. In the 1970s, consistent index definitions were created, finally allowing investors to reliably track the performance of stocks in other developed nations. This was a critical development because while the U.S. is the world's single largest and deepest stock market, it still only accounts for about half of the total global equity market capitalization.Recognizing this, large institutional investors in the 1980s and 90s made it a standard practice to allocate a portion of their portfolios to these non-U.S. markets, primarily to combat "home bias"—the natural tendency to ignore the other 50% of the world's investment opportunities. The EAFE countries represent these other major market centers, which are not only well-developed but have also adopted market structures and rules similar to those in the U.S., making them familiar territory for investors. This long, stable history as a well-defined category has made it an indispensable tool for analyzing global economic cycles and diversifying beyond a single country's fortunes.Portfolio CharacteristicsInvesting here isn't just about changing the map; it changes the very nature of your stock exposure.Diversification: This is the primary benefit. By adding exposure to different economic cycles and currencies, you can reduce your portfolio's dependence on the U.S. market's performance. When the U.S. market zigs, a different economic environment in Europe or Japan might cause those markets to zag.A Different Sector Mix: The U.S. market is heavily tilted towards mega-cap Technology companies. In contrast, non-U.S. developed markets often have greater weight in Financials (global banks and insurers) and Industrials (engineering and manufacturing giants), resulting in a different risk and return profile.A Value and Income Perspective: Historically, these markets have at times traded at lower valuations (P/E and P/B ratios) and offered higher dividend yields than U.S. stocks. While this varies over time, it often attracts investors looking for potential value or a steady stream of income.Source: BlackrockOn the left, the "U.S. Market," has a large slice of its stock market capitalization in Information Technology. In contrast, "Non-U.S. Developed Market," shows its biggest market capitalizations in Financials and Industrials, demonstrating the difference in economic engines.Source: BlackrockInvestment RisksEvery investment carries risk, and it's important to understand the specific ones here.Currency Translation: This is the most unique risk. Imagine your stocks in Europe gain 10%, but during that same time, the Euro's value falls 8% against the U.S. dollar. When you translate your gains back to dollars, your actual return is only about 2%. A strong dollar can be a headwind, while a weak dollar can be a tailwind.Economic & Policy Differences: The central banks of Europe, Japan, and the U.K. operate independently from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Different inflation rates and interest rate policies can cause their markets to perform very differently than the U.S.Country Concentration: A handful of countries—typically Japan, the U.K., France, Switzerland, and Germany—make up a large portion of the index. The economic health of these specific nations will have a major impact on overall performance.Structural Growth: Many of these are mature economies with aging demographics, which can lead to slower long-term earnings growth compared to the U.S. or emerging markets. As a result, dividends often make up a larger portion of the total return.Disclaimer: This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice; an offer to sell; or a solicitation to buy any security. Decisions should consider individual objectives, constraints, and risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results.相關投資意涵諮詢，歡迎加入 LINE 社群與Joe互動！立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。