國防產業超級週期蓄勢待發，可望推動價值重估Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年9月27日摘要RTX的核心投資論述，基於市場焦點的轉變：從解決過往的營運問題，轉向把握其高利潤率國防業務強勁的多年期上升週期。普惠(Pratt & Whitney)引擎問題曾是市場不確定性的主要來源，其財務衝擊現已基本量化並提列準備，從而大幅降低了投資風險。另一面向的觀點在於，投資者普遍低估了該公司創紀錄的2,360億美元累積訂單所蘊含的獲利能力，而此累積訂單金額為該公司在2025年後迎來自由現金流的重大轉折點，提供了一條清晰的道路。RTX目前預期的本益比為15.1倍，其估值相較於其他國防同業存在顯著折價，隨著國防相關業務的加速成長，這為價值重估創造了明確的機會。此項投資具備非對稱風險報酬特性：其下行風險似乎僅限於已知的營運拖累因素，而上行潛力則由市場重新聚焦於其持久且高利潤的國防業務增長論述所驅動。僅供教育內容 — 並非投資建議、推薦。過往表現不保證未來結果。當前發展更新於2025年9月23日專業投資圈當前熱議的焦點如下：問題控制： 普惠(Pratt & Whitney)引擎問題所造成的財務衝擊，現已大致量化並提列準備，消除了ㄧ個主要的不確定性來源。增長加速： 國防業務正處於結構性上升週期，創紀錄的2360億美元累積訂單為此提供了證明，並帶來了卓越的多年期營收能見度。自由現金流量：此一動態為公司在2025年後迎來自由現金流的重大轉折點，提供了一條清晰的道路，屆時一次性的現金支出將會下降，而高利潤的國防相關業務獲利將加速增長。我們的分析顯示，RTX呈現出不對稱的風險報酬特性，其下行風險似乎僅限於已知的營運拖累因素，而上行潛力則與國防業務上升週期驅動的價值重估相關。觀察重點因GTF引擎問題而停飛的飛機數量，其每季的改善進度。雷神(Raytheon)國防業務的訂單出貨比(book-to-bill ratio)。自由現金流的表現，特別是隨著GTF引擎賠償金支付的減少，現金流的轉折點。公司簡介RTX是全球航太與國防領域的領導者，透過三大頂級業務部門營運。柯林斯航太(Collins Aerospace)： 為飛機提供關鍵的航空電子設備、內裝及互聯系統。普惠(Pratt & Whitney)： 生產並維護全球商用與軍用飛機引擎。雷神(Raytheon)： 專注於高優先級的國家安全領域，包括飛彈防禦、精準武器及先進雷達系統。公司的多元化模式，在長週期的政府國防計畫與高利潤的商用售後服務業務之間，取得了良好平衡。公司沿革RTX Corporation的現代企業身份，可追溯至2020年兩大工業巨頭的里程碑式對等合併：聯合技術公司(United Technologies Corporation, UTC)的航太部門，與傳統的雷神公司(Raytheon Company)。該交易將UTC旗下的頂級商用與軍用航太事業體——引擎製造商普惠(Pratt & Whitney)與系統供應商柯林斯航太(Collins Aerospace)——與雷神公司作為純粹國防承包商的深厚產品組合相結合，後者以其飛彈與雷達系統而聞名。伴隨此次合併，UTC的非航太業務開利(Carrier)和奧的斯(Otis)被同步分拆為空調以及電梯設備業務，其目標是打造一個橫跨商用航太與國防領域的專注龍頭企業。合併後的實體最初名為Raytheon Technologies，於2023年正式更名為RTX Corporation，鞏固了其新的企業形象。產業與競爭格局RTX憑藉高昂的客戶轉換成本以及龐大的專利和安全許可組合，建立了長久的競爭優勢。其龐大的引擎與零組件安裝數量，創造了一個高利潤的售後服務網。該公司在其所有主要市場中，均佔有頂級的市場地位，是國防寡佔市場中的主要承包商。財務狀況營收分析RTX在2024年創造了807億美元的淨銷售總額，高於2023年的689億美元。此成長由所有業務部門的強勁表現所驅動。創紀錄的2360億美元待交付的訂單，為未來的成長提供了強大的能見度。其營收韌性來自於三個獨特的業務部門。柯林斯航太(佔部門銷售額34%)：銷售成長與全球航班飛行時數息息相關，推動了對高利潤售後服務的需求。雷神(佔部門銷售額32%)：此部門正處於結構性超級週期。其業務成長與政府國防預算及其龐大待交付訂單的轉化直接相關。普惠(佔部門銷售額34%)：營收來自新引擎的銷售與長期服務合約。龐大的裝機量確保了未來數十年豐厚的服務收入獲利。預期將影響未來營收增長的關鍵驅動因素：國防產業超級週期： 對防空與飛彈系統的需求高漲。商用售後市場復甦： 高利潤的商用航太售後市場營收依然強勁。獲利能力趨勢2024年的獲利能力雖受到一次性事件的影響，但仍顯示出潛在的實力。2024年財報的營業利潤為65億美元。此數字包含了與2023年GTF引擎問題相關的重大費用，而這些費用並為重複出現，但被2024年因法律和解及合約終止而提列的新費用所抵銷。公司財報所列的GAAP淨利潤與其調整後淨利潤之間存在巨大差異。調整項主要移除了這些費用的影響。對投資者而言，調整後的數據更清晰地描繪出目前正推動此投資論述的可持續獲利能力。隨著GTF相關費用在2025年後逐漸減少，GAAP與調整後獲利之間的差距將會縮小，報告的GAAP每股盈餘(EPS)應會顯著增長。預期將影響獲利能力的關鍵驅動因素：GTF問題解決與自由現金轉折點： 成功執行GTF引擎檢修計畫，將移除一個關鍵的隱憂，並使自由現金流正常化。資產負債表實力公司維持著強健的投資等級資產負債表。截至2024年底，總負債為411億美元，現金及現金等價物為56億美元。槓桿水平可控。管理層已審慎地為大部分預期負債提列了準備金，這降低了未來出現負面財務意外的風險。相對估值分析以預期本益比來看，RTX的交易價格相較於其同業存在折價。其15.1倍的預期本益比，低於洛克希德·馬丁(Lockheed Martin)的17.2倍和諾斯洛普·格拉曼(Northrop Grumman)的16.8倍等國防龍頭。此估值差距與普惠部門的營運挑戰並存。隨著投資者的注意力轉向公司在2025年及之後加速成長的高利潤國防業務收入流，股票的價值重估似乎正在進行中。目前的股價動能正反映了此一重新評估的過程。現金流量折現法(DCF)估值分析現金流量折現法(Discounted Cash Flow, DCF)分析是一種基本的估值方法，它根據公司預期的未來現金流量來估算其內在價值。根據此現金流量折現法分析，RTX Corporation的內在價值估計約為每股107.24美元。此估值受到強勁的預期自由現金流生成所支持，其驅動力來自穩健的國防待交付的累積訂單及商用航太市場的復甦。敏感度分析指出，此估值對加權平均資本成本(Weighted Average Cost of Capital, WACC)和永續增長率的變化最為敏感，突顯了這些假設在最終估值中的重要性。以下是RTX Corporation的DCF估值詳情。關鍵假設在預測未來現金流量之前，必須建立幾個關鍵假設：營收成長： 在強勁的國防未交付累積訂單和商用航太持續復甦的推動下，近期營收增長預計將十分強勁。隨著大型國防計畫的成熟和商用航太市場的正常化，預計此成長將在預測期的後幾年趨於平緩。營業利潤率： 營業利潤率預計將從當前水平擴張。其依據為普惠GTF引擎問題的財務影響減弱、高利潤國防部門的獲利能力提升，以及持續的成本節約計畫。資本支出： 為支持國防生產的提升和新技術的投資，預計近期資本支出將保持在較高水平。預計在預測期的後幾年，其佔營收的百分比將正常化。營運資金： 為應對強勁的可見訂單量所需的庫存，營運資金預計在近期將成為現金的用途。預計在整個預測期內，其佔營收的百分比將趨於穩定。稅率： 有效稅率假設與美國法定的企業稅率一致，並根據某些國際稅務考量進行調整。加權平均資本成本(WACC)： WACC是一個關鍵的輸入參數，反映了公司未來現金流量的風險。它是根據股權成本（源自資本資產定價模型）和稅後債務成本，按公司的資本結構加權計算得出。非槓桿自由現金流預測下表呈現了RTX未來5年的非槓桿自由現金流預測(單位：十億美元)：終值計算終值代表了明確預測期之後所有自由現金流的價值。使用戈登增長模型，假設永續增長率為2.5%，終值計算如下：終值 = (2028年非槓桿自由現金流 * (1 + 永續增長率)) / (WACC - 永續增長率)終值 = ($11.5 * 1.025) / (0.08 - 0.025) = 2143億美元企業價值與股權價值計算企業價值是預測期自由現金流與終值的現值總和，以WACC進行折現。為了得出股權價值，我們從企業價值中減去淨負債：企業價值: 1825億美元減: 淨負債: 388億美元股權價值: 1437億美元隱含股價隱含股價是將股權價值除以稀釋後流通股數計算得出。股權價值: 1437億美元稀釋後流通股數: 13.4億股隱含股價: $107.24敏感性分析DCF估值對WACC和永續增長率的變化很敏感。下表說明了在這兩個關鍵輸入參數的不同組合下的隱含股價：上方為永續增長率主要風險因素最主要的基本面風險，集中在GTF引擎的恢復過程可能更長且成本更高。此結果將損害商用發動機的獲利能力，並延遲自由現金流的改善。西方國家國防預算的顯著削減，或在提升國防產能方面遭遇失敗，則是額外的風險。免責聲明：本資料僅供參考與教育目的，不構成任何投資、法律、稅務或會計建議；亦非出售任何證券的要約或購買任何證券的邀約。所有決策應考量個人目標、限制條件與風險承受能力。過往表現不代表未來結果。RTX Corporation (RTX)Defense Super-Cycle Poised to Drive a Valuation Re-RatingExecutive SummaryThe core investment thesis for RTX is based on a narrative shift from resolving past operational issues to capitalizing on a powerful, multi-year up-cycle in its high-margin defense business.The financial impact from the Pratt & Whitney engine issue, a key source of market uncertainty, is now largely quantified and provisioned for, significantly de-risking the investment profile.The variant perception is that investors are underappreciating the earnings power of the company's record $236 billion backlog, which provides a clear path to a major free cash flow inflection after 2025.Currently trading at a 15.1x forward P/E, RTX is valued at a notable discount to its defense peers, creating a clear opportunity for a valuation re-rating as the defense segment's growth accelerates.The investment offers an asymmetric risk/reward profile where the downside appears limited to known operational drags, while the upside is driven by the market refocusing on the durable, high-margin defense growth story.Educational content only — not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.Current DevelopmentsUpdated 2025-09-27Here is what professional investors are often discussing:Problem Containment: The financial impact of the Pratt & Whitney engine issue is now largely quantified and provisioned for, removing a major source of uncertainty.Growth Acceleration: The defense segment is in a structural up-cycle, evidenced by a record $236 billion backlog that provides exceptional multi-year revenue visibility.Free Cash Flow: This dynamic creates a clear path to a major free cash flow inflection after 2025, as one-time cash expenses decline and high-margin defense profits accelerate. The analysis suggests an asymmetrical profile where the downside appears limited to known operational drags, while the upside is linked to a valuation re-rating driven by the defense up-cycle.Things to WatchQuarterly progress on reducing the number of aircraft grounded due to the GTF issue.The book-to-bill ratio in the Raytheon defense segment.Free cash flow performance, particularly the inflection point as GTF compensation payments subside.Company DescriptionRTX is a global leader in Aerospace & Defense, operating through three premier segments.Collins Aerospace: Provides critical avionics, interiors, and connected systems for aircraft.Pratt & Whitney: Produces and services a global fleet of commercial and military aircraft engines.Raytheon: Specializes in high-priority national security, including missile defense, precision weapons, and advanced radar systems.The company's diversified model balances long-cycle government defense programs with a highly profitable commercial aftermarket business.Company HistoryRTX Corporation traces its modern identity to the landmark 2020 merger of equals between two industrial giants: the aerospace divisions of United Technologies Corporation (UTC) and the legacy Raytheon Company. The transaction brought together UTC's premier commercial and military aerospace franchises—engine maker Pratt & Whitney and systems provider Collins Aerospace—with Raytheon's deep portfolio as a pure-play defense contractor renowned for its missile and radar systems. This strategic realignment was completed by the simultaneous spin-off of UTC's non-aerospace businesses, Carrier and Otis, with the explicit goal of creating a focused powerhouse across both the commercial aerospace and defense sectors. The combined entity, initially known as Raytheon Technologies, adopted the RTX Corporation name in 2023, solidifying its new corporate identity.Industry and Competitive LandscapeRTX has a wide and durable competitive advantage built on high customer switching costs and a large portfolio of patents and security clearances. Its massive installed base of engines and components creates a high-margin aftermarket services network. The company holds a top-tier market position in nearly all its primary markets. It is a prime contractor in the defense oligopoly.Financial HealthRevenue AnalysisRTX generated total net sales of $80.7 billion in 2024, an increase from $68.9 billion in 2023. This growth was driven by strength across all segments. A record backlog of $236 billion provides strong visibility for future growth. Top-line resilience comes from its three distinct segments.Collins Aerospace (34% of Segment Sales): Growth is tied to global flight hours, driving demand for high-margin aftermarket services.Raytheon (32% of Segment Sales): This segment is in a structural super-cycle. Its growth is directly linked to government defense budgets and the conversion of its massive backlog.Pratt & Whitney (34% of Segment Sales): Revenue comes from new engine sales and long-term service contracts. The large installed base secures a profitable service revenue stream for decades.Key drivers expected to impact future revenue growth.Defense Super-Cycle: Demand for air defense and missile systems is high.Commercial Aftermarket Recovery: High-margin commercial aerospace aftermarket revenue remains strong.Profitability TrendsProfitability in 2024 was impacted by one-time events, but showed underlying strength. Reported operating profit was $6.5 billion. This figure includes significant charges related to the GTF engine issue from 2023 that did not repeat, offset by new charges in 2024 for legal settlements and a contract termination. The difference between the company's reported GAAP net income and its adjusted net income is substantial. The adjustments primarily remove the impact of these charges. For you, the adjusted figures provide a clearer picture of the sustainable earnings power that is now driving the investment narrative. As the GTF charges subside after 2025, the gap between GAAP and adjusted earnings will narrow, and reported GAAP EPS should grow significantly.Key drivers expected to impact profitability.GTF Resolution & FCF Inflection: Successful execution of the GTF engine inspection program will remove a key overhang and normalize free cash flow.Balance Sheet StrengthThe company maintains a strong, investment-grade balance sheet. At the end of 2024, total debt was $41.1 billion with cash and cash equivalents of $5.6 billion. Leverage is manageable. Management has prudently provisioned for the majority of expected liabilities, which reduces the risk of future negative financial surprises.Relative Valuation AnalysisOn a forward earnings basis, RTX trades at a discount to its peer group. With a forward P/E of 15.1x, it is valued below defense primes like Lockheed Martin (17.2x) and Northrop Grumman (16.8x). This valuation gap exists alongside the operational challenges in the Pratt & Whitney segment. A stock re-rating appears to be underway as investor attention shifts to the company's accelerating, high-margin defense earnings stream in 2025 and beyond. The momentum reflects this re-evaluation process.DCF Valuation AnalysisA discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is a fundamental valuation method that estimates a company's intrinsic value based on its expected future cash flows. Based on this discounted cash flow analysis, the intrinsic value of RTX Corporation is estimated to be approximately $107.24 per share. This valuation is supported by strong projected free cash flow generation, driven by the robust defense backlog and the recovery in the commercial aerospace market. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the valuation is most sensitive to changes in the weighted average cost of capital and the perpetual growth rate, highlighting the importance of these assumptions in the final valuation.Below are details of the DCF valuation for RTX Corporation.Key AssumptionsBefore forecasting future cash flows, several key assumptions must be established:Revenue Growth: Revenue growth is projected to be robust in the near term, driven by the strong defense backlog and the continued recovery in commercial aerospace. A tapering of this growth is expected in the outer years of the forecast as large defense programs mature and the commercial aerospace market normalizes.Operating Margin: Operating margins are expected to expand from current levels. This is based on the diminishing financial impact of the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine issue, increased profitability from the high-margin defense segment, and ongoing cost-saving initiatives.Capital Expenditures: Capital expenditures are anticipated to remain elevated in the near term to support the ramp-up in defense production and investments in new technologies. They are expected to normalize as a percentage of revenue in the later years of the forecast.Working Capital: Working capital is expected to be a use of cash in the near term, reflecting the inventory build-up required for the strong order book. It is projected to stabilize as a percentage of revenue over the forecast period.Tax Rate: The effective tax rate is assumed to be in line with the U.S. corporate statutory rate, adjusted for certain international tax considerations.Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC): The WACC is a critical input that reflects the riskiness of the company's future cash flows. It is calculated based on the cost of equity (derived from the Capital Asset Pricing Model) and the after-tax cost of debt, weighted by the company's capital structure.Unlevered Free Cash Flow ForecastThe following table presents a 5-year forecast of RTX's unlevered free cash flow (in billions of USD):Terminal Value CalculationThe terminal value represents the value of all free cash flows beyond the explicit forecast period. Using the Gordon Growth Model with a perpetual growth rate of 2.5%, the terminal value is calculated as follows:Terminal Value = (2028 Unlevered FCF * (1 + Perpetual Growth Rate)) / (WACC - Perpetual Growth Rate)Terminal Value = ($11.5 * 1.025) / (0.08 - 0.025) = $214.3 billionEnterprise Value and Equity Value CalculationThe enterprise value is the sum of the present values of the forecasted free cash flows and the terminal value, discounted at the WACC.To arrive at the equity value, we subtract net debt from the enterprise value:Enterprise Value: $182.5 billionLess: Net Debt: $38.8 billionEquity Value: $143.7 billionImplied Share PriceThe implied share price is calculated by dividing the equity value by the number of diluted shares outstanding.Equity Value: $143.7 billionDiluted Shares Outstanding: 1.34 billionImplied Share Price: $107.24Sensitivity AnalysisThe DCF valuation is sensitive to changes in the WACC and the perpetual growth rate. The following table illustrates the implied share price at various combinations of these two key inputs:Perpetual Growth Rate:Key Risk FactorsThe primary fundamental risk centers on a longer and more costly GTF engine recovery. This outcome would impair commercial engine profitability and delay the free cash flow improvement. A significant reduction in Western defense budgets or failures in ramping up defense production are additional risks.Disclaimer: This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice; an offer to sell; or a solicitation to buy any security. Decisions should consider individual objectives, constraints, and risk tolerance. 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