美國政府關門延遲關鍵數據,台股加權指數(TAIEX)在資訊真空中測試歷史高點Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月2日 美東時間摘要人工智慧(AI)驅動的股票正創下新高,然而,下跌的公債殖利率則預示著對經濟的謹慎態度。美國指數在科技股帶領下創下紀錄,但市場整體的參與度狹隘。台股加權指數(TAIEX)在高峰附近出現技術性力竭的跡象。投資者尋求避險,美國公債殖利率因而下滑,這預示著風險偏好並不如頭條股價指數所顯示的那麼強勁。美國政府關門現正導致關鍵的勞動市場報告延遲發布,使投資者在聯準會決策前,缺乏評估經濟健康狀況的關鍵數據點。華府持續的政治僵局是不確定性的主要驅動因素。美台之間關於半導體供應鏈的討論,則為本地市場引入了特定的風險因子。市場正由兩種截然不同的論述所定義。美股大盤指數正處於歷史高點,其驅動因素幾乎完全來自於人工智慧(AI)題材。與此同時,債券市場則發出對經濟日益擔憂的訊號。美股週四雖推升至新的收盤高點,但此力道相當狹隘。在盤面下,美國公債殖利率的下滑、美元的走強以及油價的疲弱,皆指向資金正流向優質資產避險,而非廣泛的風險偏好擴張。此一動態因美國政府關門而加劇,關門現已導致關鍵勞動市場數據的發布延遲,為投資者和聯準會創造了一個資訊真空。在美國,標普500指數和那斯達克指數由科技和原物料類股領漲,而防禦性類股則表現落後,能源等經濟敏感領域則顯露疲態。10年期公債殖利率下跌至4.09%,此舉與股市創紀錄高點的表現並不一致,表明資金正在為經濟放緩進行避險。近期疲弱的民間就業數據,是市場目前擁有的最後一個主要經濟資訊。該報告鞏固了市場對聯準會今年將進一步降息的預期,為成長股提供了重要的順風,但由於缺乏官方數據的確認,其不確定性進而提高。對台灣投資組合而言,全球人工智慧(AI)題材仍然是主導性的正面催化劑。台積電(TSMC)美國存託憑證(ADR)在美股的強勁隔夜表現,加上持續的外資流入,為這家全球晶片製造商提供了順風。台股加權指數(TAIEX)將受到圍繞科技龍頭股情緒以及即將到來的10月16日台積電(TSMC)法說會的推動。宏觀前景依然受到美國政府關門以及台美晶片談判所引發的特定地緣政治摩擦所籠罩。隨著市場在強勁的題材趨勢與外部地緣政治風險之間進行權衡,波動性有可能會升高。週四資產焦點:貨幣與大宗商品今日的報告揭示了大宗商品領域內部的明顯分歧,硬資產與數位貨幣展現實力,而軟性商品則顯露顯著疲態。相較之下,貨幣市場則普遍保持穩定,主要訊號為歐元兌新台幣的趨勢略有惡化。圖表一:貨幣(新台幣計價)美元(交易對: USDTWD): 當前: --, 上週: --歐元(交易對: EURTWD): 當前: --, 上週: ▲日圓(交易對: JPYTWD): 當前: --, 上週: --人民幣(交易對: CNYTWD): 當前: --, 上週: --加幣(交易對: CADTWD): 當前: --, 上週: --新台幣兌主要貨幣的匯率組合呈現普遍穩定,大多數主要交易對均維持中性趨勢。美元、日圓、人民幣及加幣的評級週比皆維持中性。唯一的例外是歐元,其趨勢從正向惡化至中性,預示著上漲動能的流失。圖表二:大宗商品(美元計價)能源類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: ▼▼, 上週: --農業類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBA): 當前: ▼, 上週: --工業金屬(代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: ▲, 上週: ▲▲貴金屬(代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲數位資產(代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: --大宗商品之間出現了顯著的表現分歧。貴金屬維持其強烈正向趨勢,而數位資產則呈現顯著改善,從中性轉為強烈正向。與此形成鮮明對比的是,能源類與農業類大宗商品雙雙急劇惡化,落入負向區間。工業金屬的趨勢亦經歷了輕微惡化,但仍維持正向。此一模式表明,資金正偏好硬資產與數位資產,而非軟性商品。👍若您覺得這份研究有價值,請對本文按讚。📲加入並追蹤鉅亨號,與我們互動,即可獲取更多趨勢指標和市場資訊。📰追蹤此部落格。💬LINE好友。➡️將此分析分享給您的親朋好友,一同獲取最新投資觀點。本電子報僅供參考,不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點,如有變動,恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據,但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險,包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前,應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。AI-Linked Equities Set Records as Bonds Signal CautionU.S. Shutdown Delays Key Data, Creating an Information Vacuum as TAIEX Tests All-Time HighsBy Joe 盧, CFA | October 2, 2025Executive SummaryAI-driven equities are reaching new highs while falling bond yields signal economic caution.U.S. indices reached records led by technology, though broader market participation was narrow. The TAIEX shows signs of technical exhaustion near its peak.U.S. Treasury yields declined as investors sought safety, signaling risk appetite is less robust than headline equity indices suggest.The U.S. government shutdown is now delaying critical labor market reports, leaving you without key data points to assess economic health ahead of Fed decisions.Ongoing political gridlock in Washington D.C. is the primary driver of uncertainty. U.S.-Taiwan discussions on semiconductor supply chains introduce a specific risk factor for the local market.Two distinct narratives define the market. Headline equity indices are at record highs, driven almost exclusively by the AI theme. Simultaneously, bond markets signal rising economic concern. U.S. equities pushed to new closing highs Thursday, but this strength was narrow. Under the surface, falling U.S. Treasury yields, a strengthening dollar, and weak oil prices point to a flight-to-quality, not a broad risk-on expansion. This dynamic is exacerbated by the U.S. government shutdown, which has now delayed the release of critical labor market data, creating an information vacuum for investors and the Federal Reserve.In the U.S., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were led by technology and materials, while defensive sectors lagged and economically sensitive areas like energy showed weakness. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.09%, an incongruous move against record equity highs, indicating capital is hedging against a slowdown. The recent soft private payroll data is the last major economic input the market has. This report has cemented expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year. This expectation is providing a significant tailwind for growth stocks, but the lack of confirming official data introduces a higher degree of uncertainty.For your Taiwan portfolio, the global AI theme remains the dominant positive catalyst. A strong overnight session for TSMC's ADR, coupled with persistent foreign capital inflows, provides a tailwind for the global chip manufacturer. The TAIEX will be driven by sentiment around technology leaders and the upcoming TSMC legal conference on October 16. The macro picture remains clouded by the U.S. shutdown and specific geopolitical friction from the "55% chip" negotiations. There is a potential for elevated volatility as the market weighs strong thematic trends against outlying geopolitical risks.Thursday Asset Focus: Currencies & CommoditiesToday's report reveals a clear divergence within the commodities sector, as hard assets and digital currencies show strength while soft commodities are signaling notable weakness. The currency market, in contrast, remains broadly stable, with the primary signal being a slight deterioration in the Euro's trend against the New Taiwan Dollar.Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)U.S. Dollar (Pair: USDTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --Euro (Pair: EURTWD): Current: --, Last Week: ▲Japanese Yen (Pair: JPYTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --Chinese Yuan (Pair: CNYTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --Canadian Dollar (Pair: CADTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --The currency complex against the New Taiwan Dollar shows predominant stability, with most major pairs maintaining a neutral trend. The U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar all held their neutral ratings week-over-week. The sole exception is the Euro, which exhibited a deterioration in its trend from positive to neutral, signaling a loss of upward momentum.Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: --Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▼, Last Week: --Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --A significant performance split has emerged across commodities. Precious Metals sustained their strongly positive trend, while Digital Assets showed marked improvement, shifting from neutral to strongly positive. In direct contrast, Energy Commodities and Agricultural Commodities both deteriorated sharply into negative territory. Industrial Metals also experienced a slight trend deterioration, though it remains positive. This pattern indicates that capital is favoring hard and digital assets over soft commodities.👍'Like' this article if you found this research valuable.📲 Join our private channels to get more trend indicators and market information delivered directly to you. Choose your preferred channel to stay informed.📰Follow this blog.💬Connect with us on LINE.➡️Share this analysis to someone in your network who appreciates a data-driven perspective.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號,獲得最新專欄資訊(點此加入)關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人,曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產,並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊,透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標",為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動,提供美股市場第一手專業觀點,協助投資人掌握先機。