2026年剛開始，港股就勢頭迅猛。1月2日，恆生指數單日大漲2.76%，以26338.47點報收，創下近13年來最強開局。恆生科技指數更是飆升4%，半導體、國防軍工、軟體服務等類股領漲。這個勢頭延續了2025年港股的復甦軌跡，但是拉升邏輯或將有所變化。（圖片來自網路）小編預測，港股有望在2026年再創新高，但上漲邏輯將從估值修復轉變為盈利增長。也就是說，2025年港股已經完成了估值修復、回歸合理水平，未來的上漲將由企業自身盈利增長主導。在這種轉變之下，市場走勢將更注重企業的業績，像硬科技、高景氣賽道以及盈利改善明確的類股或將成為主線。對於投資者而言，關注點也需要從估值窪地轉向挖掘盈利增長的潛力標的。Hong Kong stocks surged at the start of 2026. On January 2, the Hang Seng Index jumped 2.76% to close at 26,338.47, marking its strongest opening in nearly 13 years. The Hang Seng Tech Index soared 4%, led by semiconductors, defense & aerospace, and software services.This momentum extended the 2025 recovery trend, yet the driving logic for gains may shift. We forecast Hong Kong stocks to hit new highs in 2026, with growth drivers switching from valuation recovery to earnings growth. In other words, after 2025’s valuation normalization, future rallies will be led by corporate profitability improvements.Against this shift, market performance will hinge more on corporate earnings. Sectors like hard tech, high-growth tracks, and those with clear profit recovery are set to become key themes. For investors, the focus should move from valuation arbitrage to identifying stocks with earnings growth potential.2025年，港股市場在全球流動性寬鬆、AI技術突破等因素的推動下，估值從地位顯著修復。恆生指數全年累計上漲27.77%，恆生科技指數漲幅更是達到23.45%，主要股指紛紛創出階段新高，整個市場基本完成了價值重估。進入2026年，隨著估值修復空間縮小，企業盈利改善將成為市場主要驅動力。某金融機構預計，2026年非金融境外中資股盈利增速有望達到15%，汽車、網際網路類股增速或達49%、25%。In 2025, Hong Kong stocks saw sharp valuation recovery, fueled by global liquidity easing and AI technological breakthroughs. The Hang Seng Index rose 27.77% for the full year, and the Hang Seng Tech Index climbed 23.45%. Major stock indices hit periodic highs, with the market basically completing its revaluation.Entering 2026, as room for valuation recovery narrows, improved corporate earnings will become the key market driver. A financial institution forecasts that non-financial offshore Chinese equities may post 15% earnings growth in 2026, with auto and internet sectors expected to grow by 49% and 25% respectively.當前，從市場反應來看，在南向資金還沒有入市的情況下，香港本地資金與外資合力推動市場走高，華虹半導體、百度集團漲超9%，阿里巴巴、騰訊控股等核心資產漲幅均超4%，創新藥、國防軍工等類股同步走強。這個強勢表現是資金面持續改善的結果。2025年港股通累計淨流入達1.4兆港元，同比增長74%，南向資金在港股中的話語權持續提升。與此同時，外資加速回流，2025年累計淨流入176.89億美元。而2026年南向資金仍有6300億至10500億港元增量空間，有望進一步與外資形成合力，全球資金將繼續配置港股資產。Currently, market reactions show Hong Kong and foreign capital jointly lifted the market even without southbound inflows. Hua Hong Semiconductor and Baidu Group surged over 9%, while core assets like Alibaba and Tencent Holdings gained more than 4%. Innovative pharmaceuticals and defense & aerospace sectors also strengthened.This robust performance stemmed from sustained liquidity improvements. Southbound Stock Connect recorded a net inflow of HK$1.4 trillion in 2025, up 74% year-on-year, enhancing southbound capital’s market influence. Meanwhile, foreign capital accelerated its return with a net inflow of US$17.689 billion in 2025. For 2026, southbound capital is expected to add another HK$630 billion–HK$1.05 trillion, likely to align further with foreign capital. Global funds will keep allocating to Hong Kong equities.1、科技類股。AI產業的持續催化將帶動以恆生科技指數為代表的港股相關類股淨資產收益率改善，繼而帶動市場估值抬升。目前，港股科技龍頭廣泛分佈於AI全產業鏈，將充分受益於產業變革紅利。此外，政策端對於科技領域的支援力度也在加大，主要聚焦於算力基礎設施建設、人工智慧應用培育等領域。隨著相關政策逐漸落地，人工智慧產業規模化也有望進一步提速。1. Technology Sector. Sustained AI industry catalysts will boost the return on equity (ROE) of Hong Kong-listed tech sectors represented by the Hang Seng Tech Index, in turn lifting market valuations. Currently, leading Hong Kong tech stocks span the entire AI industrial chain and will fully benefit from industry transformation dividends. Additionally, policy support for the tech sector is intensifying, focusing on computing infrastructure construction and AI application development. As relevant policies are gradually implemented, the scaling of the AI industry is expected to accelerate further.2、創新藥類股。在聯準會降息周期內，創新藥企業將持續受到利多。龍頭創新藥企商業模式逐步成熟，研發投入開始轉化為實際產品，帶動盈利增長。同時，政策端對於創新藥的扶持力度也在加大，臨床價值定價機制逐步完善，集采政策最佳化與醫保多元支付體系落地將降低行業波動，為創新藥企業提供更好的發展環境。2. Innovative Pharmaceuticals Sector. Innovative pharma firms will keep gaining from the Fed's rate-cut cycle. Leading players are maturing their business models, with R&D investment translating into tangible products to drive earnings growth. Meanwhile, policy support for innovative drugs is growing. The clinical value-based pricing mechanism is improving steadily; optimized volume-based procurement policies and the implementation of a diversified medical insurance payment system will reduce industry volatility and create a more favorable environment for innovative pharma companies.3、周期風格資產。隨著全球經濟共振復甦，流動性寬鬆交易或將讓位於基本面修復，周期風格資產有望迎來配置機會。鋼鐵、建材、電氣裝置等周期行業的供需格局將逐步最佳化，產能利用率及毛利率或穩步提升。此外，全球流動性寬鬆與美元信用弱化背景下，商品價格具備上行基礎，而國內反內卷政策與全球生產擾動限制供給彈性，供需缺口有望推升行業景氣度。3. Cyclical Assets. Amid synchronized global economic recovery, liquidity-driven trades are likely to give way to fundamentals improvement, bringing allocation opportunities for cyclical assets. The supply-demand dynamics of cyclical industries such as steel, building materials, and electrical equipment will gradually optimize, with capacity utilization and gross margins expected to rise steadily.Furthermore, against loose global liquidity and weakened US dollar credibility, commodity prices have an upward foundation. Domestically, anti-cutthroat competition policies and global production disruptions limit supply elasticity, and potential supply-demand gaps are poised to lift industry prosperity.雖然2026年港股市場前景看好，但上漲過程不會一帆風順。現階段仍處於國內經濟復甦的早期階段，地產銷售資料並未實質性走穩，企業盈利兌現也需要時間。在這期間，市場預期不穩可能導致市場出現波動。此外，海外的地緣政治問題也可能影響風險資產的上行趨勢，導致包括港股在內的風險資產價格回呼。在這種情況下，投資者最好不要押注單一市場或熱點。聚焦盈利真實、現金流健康的公司，警惕純概念炒作的類股。在投資策略上，建議圍繞增量資金所青睞的方向展開，特別是港股獨有的優質稀缺資產，例如網際網路平台、創新藥和高分紅等企業，以及低估值的類股，尤其是恆生科技的成分股。同時，可以關注高股息藍籌股，例如金融、能源、公用事業等類股的龍頭企業，平衡好投資組合的風險與收益。 (無界社Economic Views)
