Elon Musk is betting his business empire on AI. THOSE WHO believe in Elon Musk are convinced both by his vision to go where no one has ventured before and his ability to pay for it—what some call the “Elon backstop”. Mr Musk’s announcement on February 2nd that he will merge SpaceX, which builds rockets and sells satellite broadband, with xAI, his artificial-intelligence lab, was not short of ambition. The world’s richest man declared that the new company would “extend the light of consciousness to the stars”. Back on Earth, however, it is getting harder to see how Mr Musk’s numbers add up.埃隆·馬斯克正將其商業帝國押注在人工智慧上。那些相信馬斯克的人，既折服於他前往無人涉足之地的願景，也相信他為此買單的能力——即所謂的“馬斯克式兜底”。馬斯克在2月2日宣佈，他將把製造火箭並銷售衛星寬頻的SpaceX，與他的人工智慧實驗室xAI合併，這一計畫可謂野心勃勃。這位世界首富宣稱，新公司將“把意識之光延伸到群星之間”。然而，回到地球現實，馬斯克帳面上的數字卻越來越難以自圓其說。The transaction values the new entity at $1.25trn; investors in SpaceX will be entitled to 80%, with the remainder going to xAI’S owners (Mr Musk holds a controlling stake in both). The stated rationale behind the tie-up is that the companies will work together to launch a fleet of data centres into space, giving xAI a big advantage in the race to develop cutting-edge models while furnishing SpaceX with a new line of business. More immediately, combining the two could further boost interest in a public listing expected this summer.該交易對新實體的估值為1.25兆美元；SpaceX的投資者將持有80%的股份，其餘歸xAI的所有者（馬斯克在這兩家公司中均持有控股權）。這次合併的官方理由是，兩家公司將合作向太空發射一批資料中心，讓xAI在開發尖端模型的競賽中獲得巨大優勢，同時為SpaceX提供新的業務線。更直接的影響是，兩者的合併可能進一步推高外界對預計於今年夏天上市的興趣。By bringing SpaceX and xAI together, however, Mr Musk is saddling a money-spinning space champion with a loss-making AI laggard. At the same time, he is reshaping Tesla, the carmaker he runs, into a “physical-AI company” focused on self-driving taxis and humanoid robots. If the latest wave of AI proves as transformative as some expect, these bold gambles might just pay off. If not, Mr Musk’s business empire could well be in jeopardy.然而，通過將SpaceX與xAI強行揉捏，馬斯克實際上是在給一個日進斗金的航天冠軍套上了一輛虧損的AI“破車”。與此同時，他正在將他經營的汽車製造商特斯拉重塑為一家專注於無人駕駛計程車和人形機器人的“物理AI公司”。如果這一波AI浪潮被證明像某些人預期的那樣具有顛覆性，這些大膽的賭博或許能獲得回報。否則，馬斯克的商業帝國很可能陷入危機。Start with the mega-merger. SpaceX is a jewel. In 2025 it launched close to 4,000 satellites into space, accounting for about 85% of the global total for the year (see chart 1). It can send objects into orbit far more cheaply than any competitor. Starlink, a satellite-broadband service that is its primary source of revenue, has around 9m subscribers worldwide, according to Deutsche Bank, more than triple the number two years ago. The company also has lucrative government contracts. All together, it reportedly generated as much as $16bn in revenue in 2025 and around $8bn in operating profit (before depreciation and amortisation).首先看這項巨型合併。SpaceX是一塊瑰寶。2025年，它向太空發射了近4000顆衛星，約佔當年全球發射總量的85%。它進入軌道的成本遠低於任何競爭對手。德意志銀行的資料顯示，其主要收入來源——衛星寬頻服務“星鏈”在全球擁有約900萬使用者，是兩年前的三倍多。該公司還擁有豐厚的政府合同。據報導，2025年其總收入高達160億美元，營運利潤約80億美元（折舊及攤銷前）。It is a far different picture at xAI. The AI lab last year made on the order of $500m in revenue from its Grok models; OpenAI, maker of ChatGPT, brought in about $13bn. X, the social-media platform with which xAI merged last year, brought in perhaps an extra $3bn in sales. Even so, the business as a whole is reportedly bleeding cash at the rate of about $1bn a month as it invests vast sums in data centres.然而，xAI的情況截然不同。這家AI實驗室去年通過其Grok模型獲得了約5億美元的收入，而ChatGPT的開發商OpenAI的收入約為130億美元。去年與xAI合併的社交媒體平台X，可能貢獻了額外的30億美元銷售額。儘管如此，據報導，由於在資料中心上投入巨資，整個業務正以每月約10億美元的速度“失血”。The company brings with it other problems, too. X is under investigation in the European Union and Britain over potential breaches of data regulations and for its launch over Christmas of an image generator that was widely used to produce nude deepfakes, including reportedly of children; on February 3rd its offices in Paris were raided by French authorities. Mr Musk has denied that the company has done anything wrong. If courts find otherwise, the EU could fine it up to 6% of its global revenue, while Britain could fine it up to 10%.該公司還帶來了其他麻煩。由於潛在的資料監管違規，以及聖誕節期間推出的圖像生成器被廣泛用於製作色情深偽影像（據報導甚至涉及兒童），X正受到歐盟和英國的調查；2月3日，其巴黎辦事處遭到了法國當局的突擊搜查。馬斯克否認公司有任何不當行為。如果法院裁定違規，歐盟可能對其處以高達全球收入6%的罰款，而英國的罰款比例可能高達10%。Then there are its various debts. Last year xAI borrowed $5bn to fund its data-centre binge. With Valor Equity Partners, a long-time backer of Mr Musk’s ventures, it has also set up an off-balance-sheet vehicle financed by around $3.5bn of debt in order to buy yet more AI chips. The merger with X last year left the AI lab with another $12bn or so of borrowings remaining from Mr Musk’s purchase of the social network. SpaceX, for its part, is on the hook to cover $2bn of interest owed by EchoStar as part of a deal last year to acquire mobile spectrum from the struggling satellite company. These combined obligations will strain the business at a time when xAI continues to operate at a loss and SpaceX is investing heavily in its new “Starship” launch system, which is behind schedule.接下來是各種債務。去年，xAI借款50億美元用於資料中心建設。通過與馬斯克企業的長期支持者Valor Equity Partners合作，它還設立了一個表外融資實體，借入約35億美元債務以購買更多AI晶片。去年與X的合併又讓這家AI實驗室背負了馬斯克當年收購該社交平台時留下的約120億美元債務。SpaceX方面，作為去年從陷入困境的衛星公司EchoStar收購移動頻譜交易的一部分，它有義務承擔該公司20億美元的利息。在xAI持續虧損、SpaceX正巨資投入進度落後的“星艦”發射系統之際，這些債務負擔將使業務面臨巨大壓力。Seeking stardust. A shot of equity from a public listing would help ease the burden. The merged company reportedly has plans to raise $50bn at a valuation of at least $1.5trn. It is a lofty sum even by Mr Musk’s standards. Tesla is valued at $1.5trn, but last year generated $95bn in sales—around five times as much as SpaceX and xAI combined. Some fuddy-duddy institutional investors will balk at the price tag. Others will be turned off by the association with Grok. But they will not be Mr Musk’s target audience. His pitch will no doubt present data centres in space as a prelude to factories on the Moon and cities on Mars. Retail investors will lap it up.尋求“星塵”光環。公開上市帶來的股權融資將有助於緩解負擔。據報導，合併後的公司計畫以至少1.5兆美元的估值融資500億美元。即使按馬斯克的標準，這也是個天文數字。特斯拉估值1.5兆美元，但去年創造了950億美元的銷售額——約為SpaceX和xAI總和的五倍。一些古板的機構投資者會對這個價格望而卻步，另一些人則會因為與Grok的關係而退縮。但這並非馬斯克的目標受眾。他的說辭無疑會將太空資料中心描繪成月球工廠和火星城市的序曲。散戶投資者們會對此趨之若鶩。Mr Musk’s willingness to merge SpaceX with xAI shows how committed he has become to dominating the AI industry. It is personal: he loathes Sam Altman, the boss of OpenAI, which Mr Musk co-founded and is now suing for abandoning its original non-profit structure. Mr Altman is also eyeing a giant listing this year.馬斯克合併SpaceX和xAI的意願表明，他已下定決心要統治AI產業。這帶有私人色彩：他痛恨OpenAI的老闆薩姆·奧爾特曼，馬斯克曾參與創立該公司，現在正起訴其背棄了最初的非營利結構。奧爾特曼今年也在謀劃大規模上市。In theory, using SpaceX to build orbital data centres might help Mr Musk gain the upper hand over his rival. Mr Altman has reportedly sought to acquire, team up with or build a space company to rival SpaceX, and has long mused about the benefits of space-based data centres. Google, a search giant whose Gemini model competes with both ChatGPT and Grok, is planning to send a test satellite containing its in-house AI chip into orbit in 2027.理論上，利用SpaceX建立軌道資料中心可能幫助馬斯克在競爭中佔據上風。據報導，奧爾特曼一直尋求收購、合作或建立一家與SpaceX匹敵的航天公司，並長期思考天基資料中心的優勢。搜尋巨頭Google的Gemini模型正與ChatGPT和Grok競爭，其計畫在2027年將一顆搭載自研AI晶片的測試衛星送入軌道。Mr Musk is eager to get a head start. On January 30th SpaceX filed a request to the Federal Communications Commission, an American regulator, to put a 1m-strong constellation of satellite-based data centres into orbit. Mr Musk argued that within two to three years, the cheapest place to provide computing capacity would be in space, by harnessing solar power that is undiminished by the atmosphere. Starlink satellites can then beam the data back down to Earth.馬斯克渴望搶佔先機。1月30日，SpaceX向美國監管機構聯邦通訊委員會提交申請，計畫向軌道發射由100萬個衛星資料中心組成的星座。馬斯克辯稱，在兩三年內，由於可以利用不受大氣層衰減的太陽能，太空將成為提供計算能力最便宜的地方。隨後，星鏈衛星可以將資料傳回地球。Yet much is still to be proven. The main question, says Sir Peter Beck, founder of Rocket Lab, a smaller rival to SpaceX, is which is cheaper: the cost of electricity on Earth, where power is scarce, or the launch costs to get to space, where energy is abundant? For now, the latter are prohibitive. In a study last year, researchers at Google said the launch cost per kilogram was not likely to fall to a level equivalent to the cost of running terrestrial data centres for at least a decade. A significant increase in computing capacity will be required for xAI well before that.然而，許多想法仍有待證實。SpaceX的小型競爭對手Rocket Lab的創始人彼得·貝克爵士指出，核心問題在於那種方式更便宜：是在電力稀缺的地球上的電費支出，還是去往能源充沛的太空的發射成本？目前，後者是極其昂貴的。在去年的一項研究中，Google研究人員表示，至少在未來十年內，每公斤的發射成本不太可能降至與營運地面資料中心相當的水平。而xAI早在那個時間節點到來之前，就需要大幅提升計算能力。There are also a number of technical hurdles. Orbital data centres will need large radiators for cooling, and cosmic rays could damage equipment. Chris Kemp, the founder of Astra, another rocket company, notes that AI chips tend to quickly become obsolete and need replacing. “You are going to have to refresh your satellites every few years, which further compounds the problem,” he says.此外還有諸多技術障礙。軌道資料中心需要巨大的散熱器進行冷卻，且宇宙射線可能會損壞裝置。另一家火箭公司Astra的創始人克里斯·坎普指出，AI晶片往往很快就會過時並需要更換。“你必須每隔幾年更新一次衛星，這進一步加劇了問題的複雜性。”Tesla, which in the past few years has stopped guzzling cash, could be enlisted to help. On January 28th the carmaker stated that it had invested $2bn in xAI. The two companies are increasingly sharing software, data and chips. Some speculate that Tesla could even be folded into the rest of Mr Musk’s empire, though doing so would be complicated by the fact that he does not own a controlling stake in the company, and as its chief executive recently secured a pay deal worth up to $1trn that may be put in doubt by a merger.在過去幾年已停止瘋狂燒錢的特斯拉，可能會被徵召來提供幫助。1月28日，這家汽車製造商聲明已向xAI投資20億美元。這兩家公司正越來越多地共享軟體、資料和晶片。有人推測特斯拉甚至可能被併入馬斯克帝國的其他部分，但這樣做會非常複雜，因為馬斯克並未持有該公司的控股權，且他作為首席執行長最近獲得了一份價值高達1兆美元的薪酬方案，合併可能會讓這一方案產生變數。Even so, Mr Musk is steering his carmaker straight into the AI hype-cycle. It will soon cease making its Model S, its first mass-produced electric car, and Model X, its gull-winged SUV. Together the two models accounted for just 2% of Tesla’s vehicle production in 2025. More telling was the fact that the factory space currently devoted to them will be repurposed to manufacture Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot. Mr Musk has set a target of making 1m of them a year by the end of 2027. At the same time, Tesla is investing heavily to develop its Cybercab, a two-seater self-driving taxi that is set to go into full production in April. Mr Musk has declared that by the end of this year his robotaxis will have broken free from a handful of testing areas and be available for up to half the population of America.儘管如此，馬斯克正帶領他的車企直接衝進AI炒作周期。特斯拉很快將停止生產其首款量產電動車Model S和鷗翼門SUV Model X。2025年，這兩款車型合計僅佔特斯拉產量的2%。更具指向性的事實是，原本用於這些車型的工廠空間將改建用於製造特斯拉的人形機器人Optimus。馬斯克設定的目標是到2027年底每年生產100萬台機器人。與此同時，特斯拉正投入巨資開發其雙座自動駕駛計程車Cybercab，計畫於4月進入全面量產。馬斯克宣稱，到今年年底，他的無人駕駛計程車將走出少數測試區，覆蓋全美高達一半的人口。Sub-Optimus. In reality, self-driving taxis and humanoid robots will take years to mature into cash-generating businesses. In the meantime, they will require vast investments just as Tesla’s core business is stalling. Vehicle sales in 2025 fell by 9%, the second year of decline (see chart 2). In Europe they plunged by a quarter. Some buyers have been turned off by Mr Musk’s political antics. The deeper problem, though, is stiffening competition in electric vehicles, both from legacy carmakers and Chinese newcomers. Tesla’s remaining line-up, starved of investment, will continue to become less attractive.“次優”現實。事實上，自動駕駛計程車和人形機器人需要多年才能成熟並成為盈利業務。與此同時，在特斯拉核心業務陷入停滯之際，這些領域仍需海量投入。2025年特斯拉汽車銷量下降了9%，這已是連續第二年下滑。在歐洲，銷量暴跌了四分之一。馬斯克的政治怪癖勸退了一些買家。然而更深層的問題在於，無論是傳統車企還是中國新秀，電動汽車領域的競爭正在加劇。由於缺乏投資，特斯拉現有的產品陣容吸引力將持續下降。As with SpaceX, then, Mr Musk is gambling Tesla’s future on AI, and his belief that he can harness his existing businesses to dominate the technology. Plenty of doubters have scoffed at his grand ambitions before. But never has Mr Musk put so much on the line. ■因此，正如對待SpaceX一樣，馬斯克正將特斯拉的未來押在AI上，押在他能利用現有業務主導這項技術的信念上。過去曾有無數質疑者嘲笑他的宏偉藍圖，但馬斯克從未像現在這樣，賭得如此之大。 (熊見)
