1 導讀生成式AI正從“一超”走向“群雄”。OpenAI雖憑ChatGPT領跑,卻遭多方圍剿:微軟、輝達豪擲150億美元轉撐Anthropic,並鎖定300億美元Azure訂單,形成“資金旋轉木馬”;GoogleGemini 3自研晶片訓練,月活6.5億緊追不捨;xAI亦傳2300億美元估值融資。OpenAI為保算力,已承諾五年內向甲骨文支付3000億美元,總支出高達1.4兆美元,引發市場對其償債能力與泡沫風險的擔憂。輝達財報創新高暫時安撫情緒,但競爭白熱化使 labs 被迫持續燒錢降價,盈利與估值匹配難度陡增,AI版圖進入多極混戰。2 地道表達winner-takes-all 表示“贏家通吃”;在經濟學或商業語境中,指競爭結果中勝者獲得絕大部分甚至全部收益,敗者幾乎一無所得的市場結構。[例]:In a winner-takes-all market, early movers can seal a dominant position. 在“贏家通吃”型市場裡,先發者往往能鎖定統治地位。throw their weight behind - 把全部影響力、資源或權力押注於……;形象比喻“用自身份量”給某人/某事撐腰,強調重量級支持者的全力站台。[例]:Microsoft and Nvidia threw their weight behind Anthropic. 微軟與輝達把全部資源押向 Anthropic,為其站台。gauntlet /ˈɡɔːntlət/ - n.長手套,防護手套;(中世紀武士鎧甲的)金屬手套throw down the gauntlet - 中世紀騎士若欲單挑,會摘下金屬手套(gauntlet)擲於對方面前;對方若撿起,即表示接受挑戰。泛指“主動發起競爭或挑戰”,常見於商業、科技、體育等語境。[例]:Google threw down the gauntlet with its new AI model. Google發佈新 AI 模型,公然“下戰書”。from our vantage point - 從我們有利的觀察位置;從我們的視角來看。引申為“獨特且優越的視角”,常用於演講或財報會議,表示“站在我方立場/經驗所看到的情況”,比簡單說“we think”更形象、正式。[例]:From our vantage point, the AI market is still in its infancy. 在我們看來,AI 市場仍處於起步階段。3 |原文|翻譯|字詞|Loop the loop循環Cracks are appearing in OpenAI’s dominant façadeOpenAI 的主導地位正在出現裂痕The 21ST-CENTURY tech landscape was built with a winner-takes-all mindset. It started with Microsoft’s Windows monopoly at the end of the 1990s. Since then Alphabet-owned Google has cornered search and Amazon has become the king of e-commerce. Meta, too, has blanketed much of the world with social media—though on November 18th a judge in Washington, DC, spared it the ignominy of being declared a monopolist.21 世紀的科技版圖完全建立在“贏家通吃”的思維之上:90 年代末微軟率先憑 Windows 形成壟斷;隨後 Alphabet 旗下的 Google 牢牢把持搜尋,亞馬遜加冕電商之王;Meta 亦用社交媒體覆蓋全球——儘管 11 月 18 日華盛頓特區的一位法官免去了它被正式貼上“壟斷者”恥辱標籤的命運。No surprise then that with the rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI), everyone has jostled to be, if not the outright winner, then at least on the winning team. Since it launched ChatGPT in late 2022, OpenAI has been the one to beat. But its dominance is under threat. That was underscored on November 18th when Microsoft and Nvidia, two big backers of OpenAI, threw their weight behind Anthropic, a big rival to the maker of ChatGPT, that has hitherto been financed by Amazon and Google. On the same day, Google threw down the gauntlet with a new model.隨著生成式人工智慧(AI)的崛起,所有人都想擠進“獲勝陣營”,即便當不了唯一贏家,也至少要搭上順風車,這並不令人意外。自2022年底推出ChatGPT以來,OpenAI一直是眾人追趕的目標,但它的霸主地位正受到威脅。11月18日,這一威脅被徹底凸顯:曾大力扶持OpenAI的微軟與輝達,竟聯手為Anthropic站台——這家ChatGPT製造商的最大對手此前一直由亞馬遜和Google出資輸血。同一天,Google更拋出全新模型,公然“下戰書”。The Anthropic deal bears many of the hallmarks of the spending exuberance that has characterised the AI boom. Nvidia and Microsoft pledged to invest $15bn in Anthropic, which, in turn, will spend $30bn on Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform over an unspecified timeframe, underpinned by Nvidia’s AI chips. Not long ago such circularity, with OpenAI at the centre of the merry-go-round, dazzled markets. Now investors are spooked; Microsoft’s shares fell by 3% after the announcement.Anthropic 這筆交易集中體現了 AI 熱潮中“花錢不眨眼”的典型特徵:輝達與微軟承諾向 Anthropic 注資 150 億美元,而 Anthropic 又將在未明確的時間跨度內把 300 億美元砸向微軟的 Azure 雲平台,底層算力則由輝達的 AI 晶片支撐。不久之前,這種以 OpenAI 為軸心的“資金旋轉木馬”還讓市場目眩神迷;如今投資者卻聞風喪膽——消息一出,微軟股價當日下跌 3%。monopoly /məˈnɒpəli/ n. 壟斷corner /ˈkɔːnə(r)/ n.角,角落;v. 獨佔、壟斷spare /speə(r)/ v. 使免遭、免去ignominy /ˈɪɡnəmɪni/ n. 恥辱、醜名jostle /ˈdʒɒsl/ v. 推擠;爭搶位置outright /ˈaʊtraɪt/ adj. 徹底的;完全的underscore /ˌʌndəˈskɔː(r)/ v. 強調;凸顯hitherto /ˌhɪðəˈtuː/ adv. 迄今為止gauntlet /ˈɡɔːntlət/ - n.長手套,防護手套;(中世紀武士鎧甲的)金屬手套hallmark /ˈhɔːlmɑːk/ n. 標誌;特徵exuberance /ɪɡˈzjuːbərəns/ n. 狂熱;過度投入dazzle /ˈdæzl/ v. 使目眩;迷住The reverberations from OpenAI’s promiscuity partly explain the change of sentiment. Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson, an investment firm, dates the sell-off in tech stocks this month back to September, when OpenAI agreed to spend $300bn over five years on computing power from Oracle, and Nvidia, in turn, said it would invest up to $100bn in OpenAI.OpenAI 這種“四處牽手”的做法所引發的連鎖反應,一定程度上解釋了市場情緒的逆轉。投資公司 D.A. Davidson 的吉爾·盧里亞指出,本月科技股的拋售潮可追溯到 9 月:當時 OpenAI 同意五年內斥資 3000 億美元向甲骨文購買算力,而輝達又反手宣佈最多向 OpenAI 投入 1000 億美元。That marked the start of $1.4trn of spending commitments by OpenAI, which has raised fears in financial markets of a binge by uncreditworthy borrowers to finance new AI data centres. On November 19th Nvidia provided news that assuaged those concerns. It reported record sales in the third quarter, and raised its fourth quarter revenue forecasts above Wall Street’s expectations. “There has been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point we see something very different,” said Jensen Huang, its CEO.那件事開啟了 OpenAI 高達 1.4 兆美元的支出承諾,卻也令金融市場擔心:一群償債能力存疑的借款人正在豪擲重金新建 AI 資料中心。11 月 19 日,輝達放出消息安撫了這種恐慌:第三季度營收再創紀錄,第四季度收入指引也上調至高於華爾街預期。其首席執行官黃仁勳表示:“外界熱議 AI 泡沫,但在我們看來,情況完全不同。”Anthropic’s three-way arrangement is a reflection of Nvidia’s bullishness. For the first time, the AI lab will train its models on Nvidia’s chips. Details about the terms of the Nvidia and Microsoft investments were sketchy, but CNBC reported that they valued Anthropic at about $350bn, up from $183bn in September, which would bring it closer to OpenAI, valued at $500bn. The Wall Street Journal reported that Elon Musk’s XAI, another frontier lab, was in talks to raise $15bn at a $230bn valuation.輝達、微軟、Anthropic 的“三方聯盟”正折射出輝達的極度樂觀。這家 AI 實驗室首次決定用輝達晶片訓練自家模型。雖然輝達與微軟的具體投資條款語焉不詳,CNBC 援引知情人士稱,此次注資將 Anthropic 估值推至約 3500 億美元,較 9 月的 1830 億美元幾乎翻倍,逼近估值 5000 億美元的 OpenAI。《華爾街日報》另稱,埃隆·馬斯克旗下的前沿實驗室 xAI 也在洽談以 2300 億美元估值融資 150 億美元。reverberation /rɪˌvɜːbəˈreɪʃn/ n. 迴響;連鎖反應;影響promiscuity /ˌprɒmɪˈskjuːəti/ n. 濫交;此處引申為“不加選擇地廣泛合作”binge /bɪndʒ/ n. 狂歡;此處指“無節制的支出狂潮”assuage /əˈsweɪdʒ/ v. 緩和;安撫vantage /ˈvɑːntɪdʒ/ n.優勢bullishness /ˈbʊlɪʃnəs/ n. 看漲情緒;極度樂觀sketchy /ˈsketʃi/ adj. 粗略的;語焉不詳的It’s not just the AI labs that are putting pressure on OpenAI. On November 18th Google released its latest model, Gemini 3, which it said would improve AI features on its search platform, as well as coding and other tools. Gemini has 650m monthly average users, which is still well shy of the 800m that OpenAI says use ChatGPT on a weekly basis. But it is trained on Google’s own chips, rather than Nvidia’s, giving it potentially a big cost advantage. On November 19th Alphabet’s shares jumped to record highs, partly on the belief that it may be catching up with OpenAI.不只AI實驗室在擠壓OpenAI。11月18日,Google發佈最新模型Gemini 3,稱將強化搜尋平台、程式設計及其他工具的AI功能。Gemini月活6.5億,仍遠低於OpenAI宣稱的ChatGPT周活8億,但它訓練於Google自研晶片而非輝達晶片,潛在成本優勢可觀。11月19日,Alphabet股價跳升至歷史新高,部分源於市場相信它正逼近OpenAI。For users, the more competition the better. It means the AI labs will continue to keep prices down by burning cash. But it may also bring fears of an AI bubble from public to private markets. The more competition there is, the harder it will be for the labs to generate the revenues needed to justify the spending splurge—not to mention their stratospheric valuations.對於使用者而言,競爭越多越好——這意味著 AI 實驗室會繼續“燒錢”壓低價格。但這也可能把 AI 泡沫的擔憂從公開市場帶到私募領域:競爭越激烈,這些實驗室越難賺到足以支撐豪擲千金的高額收入,更遑論它們那“天上飛”的估值。splurge /splɜːdʒ/ n.揮霍;亂花錢stratospheric /ˌstrætəˈsferɪk/ adj.平流層的 (Chris的外刊閱讀筆記)