市場在上週大幅波動後展現韌性,投資者重新評估科技前景作者:Joe Lu,CFA 2025年4月7日市場概況美國市場週一收盤漲跌互現,在經歷了標準普爾 500 指數在過去三個交易日中下跌逾 10% 的大幅拋售之後,投資者謹慎地重返科技股。今日交易異常波動,標普500指數短暫觸及熊市區域,道瓊斯工業平均指數從盤中低點到高點大幅波動了2,595點。市場焦慮情緒顯而易見,芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數(CBOE Volatility Index,華爾街所謂的「恐慌指標」)飆升至約60。主要指數在大幅波動後收盤變化不大,反映出在空前交易量的情況下投資者的謹慎情緒。根據FactSet和Nasdaq Trader資料,週一成交量約有290億股,為至少18以年來交易量最大的交易日,超過了上週五已經很高的267.7億股成交量。標普500指數收跌-0.18%,那斯達克綜合指數小幅上漲+0.24%。道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌-0.95%,羅素2000小型股指數下跌-0.91%。費城半導體指數成為亮點,在最近的市場拋售受到重創後,大漲+2.76%。在整體經濟情勢不確定以及持續關稅擔憂的情況下,今日市場表現明顯傾向於成長型科技股。增添市場不確定性的是,財政部長Scott Bessent週一在福克斯新聞採訪中表示,與其他國家的關稅談判可能延續至六月。Bessent透露,「可能將近70個」國家,包括日本,已就關稅談判聯繫白宮,這凸顯了當前政府下正在發展的複雜全球貿易局勢。摘要:市場收盤漲跌互現,顯示上週暴跌後初步趨穩跡象半導體股強勁反彈,在持續動盪中顯著漲幅企業獲利顯示多個時間週期的持續疲弱,第一季度財報即將來臨國際市場表現明顯落後於美國,新興市場面臨特別嚴重的下滑成長股相較於價值股展現相對強勢,儘管市場持續不確定經濟指標經濟前景繼續為投資者描繪出令人擔憂的景象,多項前瞻性指標顯示經濟狀況惡化。從目前的數據到一年期來看,所有時間範圍內的投資期限都顯著疲弱,表明市場對經濟成長時間框架和利率走勢的預期仍然悲觀。企業獲利趨勢尤其令人擔憂,當前期間顯示嚴重負面讀數,過去一週和一個月持續疲弱。這種一致性的惡化模式顯示,市場預期在即將到來的財報季之前,將面臨利潤率壓力和具挑戰性的商業環境。多個時間框架的持續疲弱表明這不僅僅是短期波動,而是投資者應密切關注的發展趨勢。消費者強度也呈現令人擔憂的疲弱,大多數時間框架都顯示負面趨勢。消費指標的這種惡化可能預告著消費支出和信心的下降,這將進一步壓縮面向消費者類股的企業獲利。展望未來,這些經濟訊號的組合表明企業獲利面臨具挑戰性的環境,可能在未來幾週當第一季度財報開始公布時繼續對市場情緒產生壓力。美國十大公司市場最大公司的表現今日明顯分化,突顯出投資者情緒的選擇性。在十大公司中,Broadcom領漲,出現驚人的+5.37%漲幅,其次是NVIDIA上漲+3.53%,而Meta Platforms(+2.28%)和Amazon(+2.49%)也穩健增長。這些以科技為重心的公司在持續的市場不確定性中展現了相對強勢。相比之下,蘋果在大型科技股中跌幅最大,下跌-3.67%,特斯拉下跌-2.56%,微軟小幅下跌-0.45%。摩根大通下跌-1.58%,反映出金融類股的普遍疲弱。廣泛市場指數美國主要指數今天表現各異。以科技股為主的那斯達克綜合指數小幅上漲+0.24%,表現優於其他主要指數。標普500指數下滑-0.18%,而道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌-0.95%,傳統工業類股表現較弱。小型股持續面臨壓力,羅素2000指數下跌-0.91%,表現落後於大型股指數,表明市場對小型公司應對經濟挑戰的能力持續擔憂。最顯著的表現來自費城半導體指數,大漲+2.76%,在上週大幅下跌後強勁反彈。這些指數的趨勢模式在當前和近期期間顯示一致的負面讀數,與長時間範圍中的混合讀數形成對比。這種模式與近期市場波動一致,並暗示未來持續的不確定性。近期負面趨勢加劇,表明市場情緒惡化,儘管今日表現不一。這與市場在極端波動後尋找方向的敘述相符,表明投資者在尋找更廣泛不確定性中的機會時保持謹慎。類股概況今日交易中類股明顯出現回緩。標普500資訊科技類股小幅上漲+0.28%,標普500通信服務類股也以+0.14%的漲幅收盤。這些類股相較於大盤指數展現出相對韌性。表現最差的類股包括標普500房地產類股,暴跌-2.97%,其次是標普500公用事業類股下跌-1.53%和標普500原材料類股下跌-1.61%。標普500非必需消費品類股也面臨顯著壓力,下跌-1.18%。類股趨勢模式在當前和近期時間框架中顯示普遍負面讀數,但在更長期讀數中存在顯著差異。公用事業、通信服務和能源在一年期時間框架中顯示正面趨勢,儘管當前疲弱,表明潛在的長期韌性及復甦的潛力。同時,原材料類股在所有時間框架中始終疲弱,暗示更深層次的結構性挑戰。這種混合表現模式支持市場尋找方向的敘述,投資者在類股間轉換,在當前企業獲利疲弱和經濟不確定性環境中,同時試圖識別那些最有能力航行的類股。國際市場全球市場今天表現明顯落後於美國指數,發達和新興地區都普遍出現下跌。歐洲市場面臨特別大的壓力,MSCI歐洲指數下跌-3.11%。日本股市也大幅下跌,MSCI日本指數下跌-0.31%。新興市場經歷了更陡峭的跌幅,MSCI中國指數暴跌-8.00%,更廣泛的MSCI亞洲新興市場指數下跌-4.30%。拉丁美洲市場同樣表現不佳,MSCI拉丁美洲指數下跌-2.76%。其他資產今日跨資產表現顯示出顯著分歧,固定收益、商品和貨幣市場均有明顯波動。在國債市場,價格表現不一,短期美國國債價格基本持平,上漲+0.01%,而中期美國國債價格下跌-1.19%,長期美國國債價格大幅下跌-3.02%,表明收益率大幅上升。在商品市場,黃金價格儘管近期強勁,但跌幅-2.15%,WTI原油價格下跌-2.86%,暗示對全球需求的擔憂。農產品也面臨壓力,下跌-2.56%,同樣反映全球需求擔憂。美元指數表現強勁,上漲+1.54%,表明在全球不確定性中資金湧向全球儲備貨幣的安全性。加密貨幣領域面臨極大壓力,比特幣暴跌-7.21%,即使對這個波動性較大的資產類別來說也是顯著的波動。展望未來,市場參與者將密切關注週二公布的三月份美國全國獨立企業聯合會小型企業指數,以了解在當前經濟不確定性的情況下,美國中小型企業的健康狀況。本週晚些時候,備受關注的消費者物價指數報告將公布,可能會對市場情緒和美國聯準會 (Federal Reserve) 提出之政策預期產生重大影響。隨著通貨膨脹擔憂依然突出以及近期市場波動,市場將仔細研究這一數據點,尋找持續價格壓力或潛在緩解的跡象。關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為美籍台灣人,曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產,並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊,透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標",為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動,提供美股市場第一手專業觀點,協助投資人掌握先機。Markets Show Resilience Following Last Week's Sharp Moves as Investors Reassess OutlookBy Joseph Lu, CFAApril 7, 2025MARKET OVERVIEWUS markets ended Monday's session with mixed results as investors cautiously returned to technology stocks following a steep selloff that has seen the S&P 500 lose more than 10% over the past three trading sessions. The day's trading was exceptionally volatile, with the S&P 500 briefly touching bear market territory and the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing a massive swing of 2,595 points from its session low to high. Market anxiety was palpable, with the CBOE Volatility Index – Wall Street's so-called "fear gauge" – spiking to approximately 60.The major indices finished the day with minimal movement after the wild swings, reflecting cautious sentiment amid unprecedented trading volume. According to FactSet and Nasdaq Trader, approximately 29 billion shares changed hands on Monday, making it the highest volume trading day in at least 18 years and surpassing Friday's already elevated volume of 26.77 billion shares. The S&P 500 Index closed down -0.18%, while the Nasdaq Composite eked out a slight gain of +0.24%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated -0.95%, with the Russell 2000 small-cap index declining -0.91%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index provided a bright spot, surging +2.76% after being hit particularly hard in the recent selloff. Today's market performance revealed a notable bias toward growth technology names amid uncertainties about the broader economic picture and ongoing tariff concerns.Adding to market uncertainty, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested in a Fox News interview Monday that tariff negotiations with other countries could extend until June. Bessent revealed that "maybe almost 70" countries, including Japan, have contacted the White House regarding tariff negotiations, highlighting the complex global trade landscape developing under the current administration.Executive Summary:Markets ended mixed, showing early signs of stabilization after last week's tumbleSemiconductor stocks rebounded strongly with a significant gain amid continued volatilityCorporate earnings showing persistent weakness across multiple timeframes as Q1 results approachInternational markets significantly underperformed US, with emerging markets facing particularly steep declinesGrowth stocks showed relative strength compared to value names despite ongoing market uncertaintyECONOMIC INDICATORSThe economic outlook continues to paint a concerning picture for investors, with multiple forward-looking measures showing deterioration. Investment duration has weakened significantly across all timeframes, from current readings through one-year perspectives, suggesting market expectations for economic growth timeframes and interest rate trajectories remain pessimistic.Corporate earnings trends remain particularly troubling, showing sharp negative readings in the current period and continuing weakness over the past week and month. This consistent pattern of deterioration indicates the market anticipates margin pressures and challenging business conditions ahead of the upcoming earnings reports. The persistent weakness across multiple timeframes suggests this isn't merely short-term volatility but rather a developing trend that investors should monitor closely.Consumer strength also shows concerning weakness, with negative trends across most timeframes. This deterioration in consumer metrics could foreshadow pullbacks in spending and confidence that would further pressure corporate earnings in consumer-facing sectors. Looking forward, the combination of these economic signals suggests a challenging environment for corporate profitability that may continue to weigh on market sentiment as first quarter earnings begin to roll out in the coming weeks.TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIESPerformance among the market's largest companies diverged significantly today, highlighting the selective nature of investor sentiment. Among the top 10 companies, Broadcom led gains with an impressive +5.37% rise, followed by NVIDIA at +3.53%, while Meta Platforms (+2.28%) and Amazon (+2.49%) also posted solid gains. These technology-focused names demonstrated relative strength as ongoing market uncertainties continued.In contrast, Apple suffered the largest decline among mega-caps, falling -3.67%, while Tesla dropped -2.56% and Microsoft edged down -0.45%. JPMorgan Chase declined -1.58%, reflecting broader weakness in the financial sector.BROAD MARKET INDICESMajor US indices displayed mixed performance today. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite managed to post a slight gain of +0.24%, outperforming other major indices. The S&P 500 Index slipped -0.18%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -0.95%, showing greater weakness in traditional industrial sectors.Small-cap stocks continued to face pressure, with the Russell 2000 Index declining -0.91%, underperforming large-cap indices and suggesting ongoing concerns about smaller companies' ability to weather economic challenges. The most notable performance came from the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which surged +2.76%, rebounding strongly after significant declines last week.The trend patterns across these indices reveal uniformly negative readings in current and recent periods, contrasting with more mixed readings over longer timeframes. This pattern aligns with the recent market volatility and suggests continued uncertainty ahead. The negative trends have intensified in recent periods, indicating deteriorating market sentiment despite today's mixed performance. This alignment with the narrative of markets searching for direction after extreme volatility suggests investors remain cautious while attempting to identify areas of opportunity amid broader uncertainty.SECTOR OVERVIEWA reversion in sectors was evident in today's trading. The S&P 500 Information Technology sector managed a slight gain of +0.28%, while the S&P 500 Communication Services sector also finished in positive territory with a +0.14% advance. These sectors demonstrated relative resilience compared to the broader market.The worst performing sectors included the S&P 500 Real Estate sector, which plunged -2.97%, followed by the S&P 500 Utilities sector at -1.53% and the S&P 500 Materials sector at -1.61%. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector also faced significant pressure, falling -1.18%.The sector trend patterns show broadly negative readings across most sectors in current and recent timeframes, though with notable differences in longer-term readings. Utilities, Communication Services, and Energy show positive trends over the one-year timeframe despite current weakness, indicating potential longer-term resilience. Meanwhile, Materials shows consistent weakness across all timeframes, suggesting deeper structural challenges. This mixed pattern of performance supports the market's search for direction, with investors rotating between sectors while attempting to identify those best positioned to navigate the current environment of weakening corporate earnings and economic uncertainty.INTERNATIONAL MARKETSGlobal markets significantly underperformed US indices today, with widespread declines across both developed and emerging regions. European markets faced particular pressure, with the MSCI Europe Index falling -3.11%. Japanese stocks also retreated sharply, with the MSCI Japan Index down -0.31%.Emerging markets experienced even steeper declines, with the MSCI China Index plummeting -8.00% and the broader MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index falling -4.30%. Latin American markets also struggled, with the MSCI Latin America Index declining -2.76%.OTHER ASSETSCross-asset performance revealed significant divergences today, with notable moves across fixed income, commodities, and currencies. In the Treasury market, prices showed mixed results, with short-term US Treasury prices essentially flat at +0.01%, while intermediate US Treasury prices fell -1.19% and long-term US Treasury prices declined more significantly at -3.02%, indicating a substantial increase in yields.In commodities, gold prices retreated -2.15% despite recent strength, while WTI crude oil prices fell -2.86%, suggesting concerns about global demand. Agricultural commodities also faced pressure, declining -2.56%, suggesting concerns about global demand. The US Dollar Index showed strength, rising +1.54%, indicating a flight to the safety of the world's reserve currency amid global uncertainty. The cryptocurrency space faced extreme pressure, with Bitcoin plunging -7.21%, a significant move even for this volatile asset class.Looking ahead, market participants will be closely watching Tuesday's National Federation of Independent Business small business index reading for March for insights into the health of small businesses amid the current economic uncertainty. Later this week, the closely watched consumer price index report will be released, which could significantly impact market sentiment and Federal Reserve policy expectations. With inflation concerns still prominent and recent market volatility, this data point will be scrutinized for signs of persistent price pressures or potential relief.